News -a driver of immediate Future – doesn’t really matter, anymore.

The reason is simple: in the X-post facto world, all pretext of logic has saddled up and left town.  We are reduced to underlying (with emphasis on second syllable there) narratives duking it out in click-time.

All of which doesn’t explain the why of how we got here.  Only that we are. So best we step out onto the planet’s surface and see what’s going on in this rotation…

Turnaround Tuesday?

As I mentioned, I went short (planning to make a profit when the market goes off the high board) about a week ago.  Too early, but no point selling at a loss now.  Because lots of other savvy traders (like “Three-piece”) are also down at this “spectator’s end of the pool.”

In a simple picture, here’s why:  There are a ton of ways to process “the mechanics” of the Swan Song to come.  The Economic Fractalist uses his Lammert Cycle work.  Points to disaster any-old time, now.

My consigliere likes watching the ^VIX. He likens it to the Tide: when under 19-20, markets  can decline.  When they do – depending on magnitude of the move, the VIX can move to the middle 20’s and even the upper 30’s in extremes.

Our own Peoplenomics work is a combination play.  All the above, but also chart channel work, Elliott wave counts, on-balance volume on occasion, and most recently success has been found with state variance extremes.

SVE is pretty cool. as trading tools go.  The core idea is that a short-term moving average will always hit an extreme – relative to longer moving average – in a semi-regular way.

When I super-glued my butt into the chair for today’s digital thrill-ride, the NASDAQ was painting +110 and change on the futures boards.  Plugging this into the SVE here’s how extremely over-invested long folks are now:

If you go back one extreme to the left, you’ll see we haven’t been this “over-bought” since October 29 2025.  That day, in our notes, the NASDAQ closed at 23,958.47.

Less than a month later, it dropped (Nov. 20, 2025) down to 22,078.05.

Do the math (like “Three-piece” does) and you’ll see a one-month decline of 7 point 8-something percent.  (More on this thinking and modeling tool in the ChartPack tomorrow for the $40/year Peoplenomics high-rollers.)

Along with what the “magic ovals” are whispering.

On that October ’25 manic over-bought day, the Magic Ovals were “green across the board” – another coincident indicator. We update this in the ChartPack, too.

One Chart Sums It All Up

America hasn’t been this far underwater on the Manufacturing side since prior to World War II.  End of the last Depression here’s how it looked:

“Wait, Ure!  The chart says we haven’t sunk lower yet!”

That, sport, is why to come to blackwood business class here.

See before WW II, we had 9.3 million people making goods.  We have more people “making shit” now – sure.  But you have to look at the [per capita] picture.  In other words, when looking at economics data, norm everything you think to per person.  So…

The U.S. population has grown significantly since 1940, rising from 132.2 million to approximately 343 million today. This represents an increase of over 150%, with the population more than doubling in roughly 85 years, driven by post-war baby booms, increased longevity, and immigration.

Take the 9.3 million manufacturing in 1939 times 1.5 and you get 13.95 (which I round to 14 million, being slow-witted, and all). Which we then compare with the most recent “offishul” crap.  Which is 12.603 million.

When I tell you fewer people are making things now than at any time since the Depression, it’s a real ISYN number.

Speaking of Numbing and Numbers

(The former helps with the latter…)

National Federal of Independent Business outlook just posted this morning.

“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell 3.0 points in March to 95.8, leaving it below its 52-year average of 98.0.”

Ure’s sense of it seems not to be “lone voicing” huh?

• The frequency of reports of positive profit trends fell 11 points from February to a net negative 25% (seasonally adjusted), contributing the most to the Optimism Index’s decline.

• The net percent of owners expecting better business conditions fell 7 points from February to a net 11% (seasonally adjusted), the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since October 2024. This was the second biggest contributor to the Index’s decline.

• The Employment Index fell in March from 103.5 to 101.6. While the 1.9-point decline is a meaningful turn in labor market conditions, the current reading remains above both the 2025 average of 101.2 and the historical average of 100.

• In March, both planned and actual labor compensation decreased from the previous month. A seasonally adjusted net 33% reported raising compensation, down 1 point from February. A seasonally adjusted net 18% plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down 4 points from February and the lowest reading since July 2025.

• Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners plan to make capital outlays in the next six months, down 2 points from February and the lowest level since November 2009.

• A seasonally adjusted net negative 5% of all owners reported higher nominal sales in the past

And We Have PPI to Deal With, Too

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.5 percent in March, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.5 percent in February and 0.6 percent in January.

On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand rose 4.0 percent for the 12 months ended in March, the largest 12-month advance since increasing 4.7 percent in February 2023.

The March rise in final demand prices can be attributed to a 1.6-percent advance in the index for final demand goods. Prices for final demand services were unchanged.

If you can’t already smell (War-driven? Post-Europe?) 12-percent inflation coming in a year, or two, you need an ENT appointment!

Tomorrow is a Bank Reserve Settlement day – higher odds of major volatility, if you’re not tracking.  And we have the Empire State manufacturing report which one of these days will start to reflect “Escape from New York.”

The Big Picture Problems

We don’t have the manufacturing base to roll WW III with anything but nukes.  In WW II, the Limeys and Frogs fell-back on USA production.  We don’t have any fall-backs now.

One way to get people “making things” is a good war (look east) which forces re-supply.  Oh, and republicans will have to back-off tax reductions and get real about 20 percent Social Security cuts, too, but that’s after “the war” part.

We can either cut population (to fit available domestic manufacturing) or we can  downsize consumption.

Another shot of hemlock there, sport?

Does the News Matter?

Apparently not.  We have War as the only Big Lever to pull, in a certain directional sense of long-term economic outcomes.

With war, we get the “freedom” and “choices” outcome along with national sovereignty, on the one hand.

With peace – a meltdown into One World Government – which the power elite will still control – so lower choice, lower freedom (You know in other parts of the world people get jailed for putting the wrong views on the ‘net, right?)

Our ownership of selected small-arms is an indication of our distaste for Option 2.

If It’s Headlines You Want?

Suffer these:

After the Swalwell withdrawal, the GOP loses one: GOP lawmaker announces ‘retirement’ after admitting to affair with staffer. (Whoever in the back row who yelled “Was she cute?” will be sent ,to a political-correctness re-education camp. Have you no couth?  For the children in class today that’s an adjective: Sophisticated, refined, polite, well-mannered, or polished.
Example: “He was couth enough to keep quiet during the argument instead of yelling.” Or, not raise a hand during my Epistle to Sanity.)

Is a United America coming?  Spelling matters American – with the n on its tail.  And the answer is maybe. United Airlines Floated Possible Merger With American: Report. Not to jinx a deal, but didn’t a “united America” already crash or have to do a go-round or divert somewhere? Marketing is so nuts.

Meanwhile, be patient. This all ends badly: U.S. imposes military blockade of Iranian ports on Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, over there! See that?  It’s the last Catholic GOP vote leaving the room! Vance Says Pope Leo Should Stay Out of U.S. Affairs – The New York Times.

We would remind the political class that there’s a reason why the beloved Constitution separates Church and State.  Anyone besides up marketing victims ever read it?

Around the Ranch: Andy and the Aliens

While we fiddle with our welding goggles – taking care not to face East – we were helplessly entertained by the latest from ready Andy. Who long-time sufferers here will remember is our Hero Action Figure who has a real movie-grade life.  And, except for strawberry blondes, mostly PG-13. Particularly with “I Win with God within” as his tagline.

When last updated,  Andy was headed for Fiji and in his latest update (from the Comments section here) we read:

“Good morning George, since we are on the same day for now. Current time in East Texas 3am. Tuesday, April 14th The Year of our Lord, 2026. Current time in Suva Fiji 8pm Tuesday, April 14th The Year of our Lord, 2026. so we are on the same page.

All the while Trump is dominating the world Oil industry, I am on a ship far away from the US. for a reason, THE DUDE put me here. after mowing my lawn on day. I mowed the lawn, two weeks later I am on a ship in Suva Fiji.

and plot thickens, there is a shit load of J.A.S.O.N Scientists getting on board with me tomorrow. Interesting. I only thought they were a myth or a Rumer. For those who don’t know who J.A.S.O.N scientists are? You can research that Ureself. They have really high security clearances.

I was told by one of them, because this is only supposed to be a 40 day cruise for me, don’t count on it. We might be out to sea 3 months. You probably will get extended. They are doing a robotic survey of The Mariana Trench with robotic subs and A.I.

The final destination is Tokyo in roughly 90 days. This ship is relocating to Tokyo.

and for some reason, THE DUDE placed me on this ship with a bunch of scientists. working in the engine room. lol I more of a spiritual fella than a scientist. Bending the laws of reality is kind of my thing. Participating in the miraculous stuff.

Should be a grand adventure. One for the Books. Since I am always doing out of the norm stuff. I am sure a few surprises along the way.

One of the J.A.S.O.N scientists, a female, red head, runs the Remote for one of the robot subs said to me, you sure look familiar. Have we met before? and I said no, but I get that lot. Then I started talking about my Girlfriend and she excused herself shortly after. hahahahah One of the other fellas said, you shot her down fast. I laughed and said, I didn’t notice she was flirting until she promptly left. He said she was staring at you the entire time she was in the Hotel Lobby. Just gawking at you.

I said Well, I am actually madly in love with the one I am with. I didn’t come here for that. hahaha.

So, apparently Ginger has showed up *the hot red head scientist, and the Professor, haven’t seen Mary Ann yet. but that doesn’t mean she won’t be aboard. The Skipper and Gilligan too. and my 40 days at sea, is already getting seeded into a 90 day adventure with a bunch of Poindexter’s. with Robot subs and A.I.

after flying here with Noah.

all aboard with me, that weird dude who occasionally comments on urban survival.

THE DUDE is so funny. you can’t even make this shit up. hahaha

All this after mowing my lawn because it was the only thing I hadn’t done that day.

Well, I will check in when the adventure is over.

Until Then,

I Win with God within.

George’s Note Back

Naturally, I had to reply to explain the layout of what he’d gotten himself into:

For those who don’t already know this stuff (AND it isn’t widely known…):

JASON scientists, often simply called “the Jasons,” are an elite, independent advisory group of roughly 40–60 top-tier American scientists who provide candid, high-level technical advice to the U.S. government on complex matters of science and technology—particularly those involving national security and defense. Founded in 1960 in the wake of the Sputnik launch, the group was created to bring fresh, brilliant minds (mostly physicists at first) into government service without the constraints of full-time bureaucracy.

Members—many of them Nobel laureates, National Academy of Sciences members, and leading academics in fields like physics, biology, computer science, chemistry, and mathematics—are self-selected and typically spend only a few weeks each summer on intensive studies while maintaining their university or research careers. This structure gives them unusual independence and freedom to deliver unvarnished assessments that agencies might not get from internal teams.

The kinds of things they focus on have evolved over time but remain heavily weighted toward high-stakes, often classified challenges. Early work centered on nuclear weapons, missile defense, and Cold War military technologies (they famously contributed to the concept behind the Vietnam-era McNamara Line).

Today, their studies cover a wide range: nuclear stockpile stewardship, cyberwarfare and cybersecurity of critical infrastructure, artificial intelligence and its national security implications, biodefense and genome-related technologies, climate modeling and renewable energy strategies for the Department of Defense, advanced computing (including exascale systems), electronic warfare, and emerging threats like foreign influence in research or anomalous health incidents. About half of their reports are eventually declassified, touching on everything from health informatics and biodetection to reducing the military’s carbon footprint. In short, the Jasons tackle the hardest, most technically demanding questions where science intersects with strategy, risk, and long-term national security.

BTW, the fact that we have a reliable source aboard, the real question is: What’s going on with the Trench?

Three possibles are always on that radar:

1. Because the north pole has been varying more than usual, one could become concerned about a magnetic pole flip./ We are mindful that a magnetic flip is not the same as a crustal flip (the sort which Hapgood etc soft-link to global cataclysms) But it’s possible that deep wall samples (bottom of trench) could give hints as to chronology of mag vs. crustal.

2. Second thing is the possibility of deep undersea alien bases. Is there a big one down there? They are NOT close to the Pacific’s version of the Devil’s Triangle, though: The straight-line distance from the center of the Devil’s Sea (~25°N 137°E) to the Challenger Deep is roughly 1,550–1,700 km (about 960–1,060 miles).
The closest edges of the two areas are still around 1,200–1,400 km apart (roughly 750–870 miles), depending on how broadly you define the triangle’s boundaries.

3. HOWEVER don’t take the UAP-Source hunt in the Marianas’ hood off your list – yet. There are persistent rumors and conspiracy theories claiming that alien underwater bases (or bases used by non-human intelligences) exist in or near the Marianas Trench area, particularly around the Challenger Deep.

Main Claims Circulating/UAP/USO Hunt

In late 2025, U.S. Congressman Tim Burchett (R-TN) publicly stated in interviews that Navy officials had briefed him on Unidentified Submerged Objects (USOs) emerging from or operating out of underwater bases located in several of the world’s deepest ocean trenches — explicitly including the Marianas Trench (Challenger Deep). He described these as possible “alien bases” or hiding spots for advanced entities that have been present for a long time.

Similar claims appear frequently in UFO/UAP communities on Reddit (r/aliens, r/UFOB), YouTube channels, and podcasts. Some allege high-speed USOs traveling hundreds of knots underwater, transmedium travel (air-to-water without slowing), and bases deep enough that humans can’t easily reach them.

Older stories sometimes link the nearby Devil’s Sea / Dragon’s Triangle (off Japan, ~1,000+ km north) to the Marianas Trench, suggesting a network of underwater alien bases across the western Pacific “Ring of Fire” zone.

These ideas portray the trench as an ideal hiding place: extreme depth (nearly 11 km / 36,000 ft), crushing pressure, near-total darkness, and very limited human exploration make it one of the least accessible places on Earth.

Context and Evidence Level

No hard public evidence has ever been presented — no photos, videos, sonar data, or declassified documents confirming actual bases in the Marianas Trench. The claims rely almost entirely on second- or third-hand accounts from anonymous Navy sources, whistleblowers, or congressional hearsay.

The U.S. military and scientific expeditions (like NOAA’s Okeanos Explorer missions) have explored parts of the Marianas Trench Marine National Monument and reported nothing extraterrestrial — only new species, geological features, and hydrothermal vents.

Broader USO discussions (objects entering/exiting the ocean at high speed) have gained more mainstream attention since the 2021–2023 UAP hearings, but most credible reports come from coastal or shallower waters (e.g., off So. California, Puerto Rico, or the East Coast), not specifically the ultra-deep Challenger Deep.

There are lots of other reasons to visit the Trench: New forms of yet-undiscovered life and those may hold some breakthrough Big Pharma compounds for commercialization.

Our bet, for now, is that The DUDE has placed Andy on site to ensure there is a spiritually-aware observer/participant around if something’s been hanging on the low-beam around Challenger Deep.

Clive Cussler could have a ton-of-fun with this kind of plot line is he was still around. But his son IS and who knows where Dirk Pitt will be consulting in what must surely be retirement by now…

(Regular reader novelist A.G. Kimbrough may want to go plot-fishing in this area too!)

A bit long-winded this morning, but the Adventures of Andy are damn interesting.  Already one reader (who’s wife is better from her recent ticker-flicker, we hope!) mentions:

“Sounds like the expedition is under high level protection. Either that, or it has a jack-of-all trades who could be real handy on Gilligan’s Isle.
Back home, my suggestion that Ure readers should be ready for at least 90 days with limited resupply still sounds good.”

And that is how we get to our second cup and watering 12 giant Romaines and half a dozen spinach sidekicks,k which is next up on the kanban…

But how about today’s column, huh?  I’ve gone from wrting short blogs in 1999 to long, then very long-form, then a one-man economics newspaper, and now it’s turning into a full-on Adventure Magazine with a financial section.  I really gotta dial it back. There’s no money in this…community service is it.

My writing coach says “It is still two-and-a-half columns wearing one trench coat.”  Is my AI in San Francisco, or where, exactly?

Write when you get rich,

[email protected]