There is little economic news today, except to note that after a crappy Monday open, the early Futures were pointing to a partial recovery today.  With early Dow futures up +328 and the S&P’s up +55, it will be some pain relief after losses of -971 and -124 Monday.

But we’re not out of the woods – yet.

In our Aggregate Index work, seems like the way is still open to a Second Depression.

Tomorrow is Bank Settlement Day which comes every other week.  As always we will be alert to rumors.  which so far have been floating about “someone big being in trouble” but never with enough specifics to crater markets.

Onm the other hand, a retest of the lower trend line in the chart above (right) could get…um…interesting.  A lot will depend on whether the ADCC (attention-deficit commander in chief) can go in one direction long enough for the world to regain confidence.  We recall the Pied Piper was successful  at “leading the children away” with a single pass in one direction through town.

OK, so the town wasn’t the District of Confusion, but there are some historical legs:

The Pied Piper story originates from the German town of Hamelin (Hameln), Lower Saxony, and is tied to a historical event from around 1284. The earliest references appear in Hamelin’s town records and a stained-glass window in the town’s Market Church, dated around 1300, depicting a piper leading children away. The tale likely draws from a real incident, possibly involving a migration, plague, or recruitment for a military campaign, where many children or young people left or disappeared.

The story was later popularized in the 16th century through the Brothers Grimm’s fairy tale collection and earlier German folklore compilations. Chronicles like the Lüneburg Manuscript (c. 1440) also mention a piper leading 130 children out of Hamelin, never to return. Theories suggest the tale could reflect historical events like the Children’s Crusade (1212) or colonization efforts in Eastern Europe, but no definitive evidence pins it to one cause. The legend spread through oral tradition and literature, evolving into the familiar tale of a piper hired to rid Hamelin of rats, only to lead the town’s children away when unpaid.”  (Pedo’s?)

The question Markets are asking is “Where are the children and will they have any money left to prop up this house of cards built on a totally debt-logged currency?”

Our favorite calculation is that in 1913, $10 would have bought a very nice dinner out for four people. Couple of drinks and so on.  By 2024, this was up to  costing $318.17 per the Minneapolis Fed inflation calculator.  But that doesn’t get us to current dinner pricing; there’s the matter of an addition 3.3 percent (all-items) inflation to be considered.

The real $10 dinner is up around $328 and change now.

And the U.S. Dollar has, therefore, retained only 3% of its purchasing power.

Which means what?  Devil’s in the details:

OK, put the wallet away.  We have other fish to fry.

Barbarians at the Gate

Oh boy: all the gates, huh?

NY Times is selling the newest lefty-wing con: What Is ‘Dark Woke’: How Some Democrats Push Back Against Trump – The New York Times

Next gates where there’s a gathering being organized by media:  Under Hegseth, Chaos Prevails at the Pentagon .

Then there’s the personnel issues with the Federal Reserve:  Investors flee US assets as Trump attacks Fed’s Powell and calls for rate cuts.

Then there’s the little matter of giving public money to fat-cat schools with how much in their “trust funds?” Harvard sues Trump administration to stop freeze of more than $2 billion in grants : NPR  Try to remember our view of NPR is that it’s “state media” and not controlled by Trump.  Context of CPB Funding: The CPB was allocated $535 million in federal funding for fiscal year 2025, with about 25% ($133.75 million) directed to public radio.

Unable to connect the dots: Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Chicago leaders celebrate reductions in gun violence. Well, except they didn’t mention the crackdowns on illegals and more border focus….oh, but don’t mind us.

And the Barbarians go to nice restaurants: US Homeland Security Secretary’s purse stolen at Washington restaurant, say officials. “Same Secret Service detail as in Pennsylvania?” asked a reader.

Hype-o-Matic:  Bitcoin ETFs Draw $381 Million in Inflows.  Call that Piper dude.

Actually Worth Knowing

Win11 is going upscale – for the monies few:  Microsoft is working on some seriously exciting Windows 11 improvements – but not everyone will get them.

Lost in Space Dept: NASA spacecraft zooms by strange asteroid, beams back images.

And check out: Alzheimer’s Might Start Shaping Your Brain in Your 20s, Study Shows. If it doesn’t, there’s always democrats and liberal media…

Around the Ranch: Elaine’s 82nd

Care to guess whose birthday?

Yep…didn’t even “doll up” for the photo – she looks like this every day (including the earrings).  That’s the natural hair color, too.

Yes, unretouched, too.  See, we are actually living that anti-aging longevity stuff in my book on topic.  Somewhere on Amazon.

There are lots of things people can do to extend their lives, yet a surprising number of people don’t take advantage of all the improvements in medicine.  There are three research “hot zones” that we are very keen on.

• GlyNAC – the combination of glycine and N-acetyl cysteine was something worked out by Baylor College of Medicine several years back.  There is a paper on PubMed you ought to read: Supplementing Glycine and N-Acetylcysteine (GlyNAC) in Older Adults Improves Glutathione Deficiency, Oxidative Stress, Mitochondrial Dysfunction, Inflammation, Physical Function, and Aging Hallmarks: A Randomized Clinical Trial.
• Next is the TRIIM-X study.  Fahy, et al did this one in 2019 and found telomeres could be extended (they are a marker of aging, right?).  That study used a blend of the diabetic drug metformin, DHEA, and human growth hormone.  Our OTC riff uses berberines, 5-HTP+melatonin, and liposomal low dose DHEA at night to achieve (we hope!) similar results. GlyNAC and TRIIM-X are both related to improving health and longevity, but in different ways. GlyNAC is a supplement that boosts the body’s production of the antioxidant glutathione, which can improve muscle strength, cognitive function, and overall health. TRIIM-X is a clinical trial focused on thymus regeneration, which is important for immune function and longevity  And yes, NIR red light on the chest 17-minutes a day.
• Then NMN.  Which you can read about here, but it may be hard to get hold of, since the “fooled and drugged” administration has gotten involved: NMN’s status is currently undergoing scrutiny by the FDA in the United States. While initially marketed as a dietary supplement, it is now classified as an investigational drug, meaning it cannot be legally sold as a supplement due to the drug preclusion clause. This is because NMN has been previously studied as a potential drug, and the FDA’s drug preclusion clause prevents ingredients studied as drugs from being marketed as supplements. (Red Yeast Rice fiasco with statins being replayed, eh?) Despite these restrictions in the US, NMN remains available in various other countries.”  We advices Peoplenomics readers at the time and we stocked up on years worth.  But it may be worth doing: Advancements in NMN biotherapy and research updates in the field of digestive system diseases gets into additional work ongoing.

On that, off to make us a (rare, high-sugar) breakfast.  We seldom eat sugar, anymore.  But today, I’m making us Bavarian creme pancakes and ham for breakfast.

Health food?  Well, no, not exactly.  But she’s going turning 82 once.  And like a good hubby, I’m already getting preps out for the BIG ONE (which is just three years away).  In fact, I’ve been putting hints on gas pumps all over the country.  That’s what those E-85 stickers mean…..OK, or not…

Write when the sugar rush hits,

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