International Trade data has just dropped.  After I tell you this is a “rear view mirror” stat and the Trade Salad is still being tossed. Here’s the view:

Exports, Imports, and Balance 
June exports were $277.3 billion, $1.3 billion less than May exports. June imports were $337.5 billion, $12.8 billion less than May imports. The June decrease in the goods and services deficit reflected a decrease in the goods deficit of $11.4 billion to $85.9 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $25.7 billion.

Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $161.5 billion, or 38.3 percent, from the same period in 2024. Exports increased $82.2 billion or 5.2 percent. Imports increased $243.7 billion or 12.1 percent.

Three-Month Moving Averages 
The average goods and services deficit decreased $26.0 billion to $64.0 billion for the three months ending in June.

Tomorrow on Peoplenomics, a serious Econ topic on whether its time to get rid of the Fed’s “dual mandate” and actually bend policy for max economic output at all times.  America has 750 billionaires at the moment; neither of us have made the cut.  Donald Trump says he doesn’t trust jobs data, but Wall Street and economists do.  Let’s set that aside until tomorrow.

T…T…Trump!

Remember the old days?  When a  president’s name appeared only on a scattered basis in headlines because there used to be so much else going  on?  The New York Times splash page listed “Trump” 17-times today.  Though admittedly, Drudge Report had momentarily recovered from TDS listing “Trump” only twice.  Maybe my recent venom about a TDS-click bait link and how ADHD figures, is paying off?

With the fiscal impact of the Big Beautiful Bill still to be paid for, He’s baaaack…  Trump’s megabill expected to cost $4.1T, according to new CBO estimate. As we have been telling you for over 25-years here online:  Invest in the old sure-thing in town: Inflation!

Wasn’t there a Jimmy Durante show tune about changing your mind all the time?  Donald Trump Changes His Mind on Jeffrey Epstein Lawsuit.  Come to think of it, this really fits Trade policy and…

Still, is some policy areas, he’s more consistent:  Trump’s Rx for Big Pharma: 60 Days To Cut U.S. Drug Prices Or Face Action.  Like what?  I means sure, governments own things like railroads and their oil industries…but could we be the first country with ownership of long-chain healthcare? Hmm.

Free Advice (The Dear George column)

“Dear Israel: Can we refer you to a good PR Agency?” Netanyahu vows to occupy Gaza as U.S. touts ‘all or nothing’ hostage plan .

“Dear NY Post:  Are you sure you want to do that?” Left Coast, here we come: The new California Post is racing to the rescue.

“Dear Japan: Did you get the pictures, yet?” Photos: What Atomic Bombs Did to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (“Forward to Vlad, for us?”)

“Dear State Dept:  Better late than never, huh?”  U.S. may require some foreign visitors to post bond of up to $15,000 for entry.

“Dear Sydney:  Run like hell!” Fox News Discusses Sydney Sweeney Marrying Barron Trump – Newsweek.

Finance:

Before the bell, stock futures were up, which means (in our delusional way of viewing things) that we are possibly finishing up a Wave 2 bounce after kissing a major long-term trend line.  Here, take a look:

Do we have time for a sell-off down to new (recent) lows and then a rally  into Labor Day? And that setting up a massive Fall in the Fall?  Well, yeah, maybe.

But this investment advice, not my money, and the world’s a Monkey Island.  So, no telling.  Even your next breath is only a probability calc.

Around the Ranch: Tireds: Eq or Work-Related

3,765. 

That’s the word count for tomorrow’s Peoplenomics report.  And getting it done?  Mind, this is in addition to a couple of dozen views in our ChartPack.

So yes,.,. This is one of those bare-bones mornings I have mentioned are coming as the emphasis rolls over to the deeper-thinking work on the Peoplenomics  side of the house.

Of course, here is also the pending “next quakes” out in the Kamchatka region.  You can see in this view snagged from USGS that the whole Russian peninsula is shaking.

AND all that shaking is after the pimple – the volcano is perking like coffee on speed as we read in Russian volcano sends ash plume kilometres high in Kamchatka – Telangana Today.

Point is, if you begin to feel strangely tired over the next several days – say between now and Saturday – feel free to drop a note in our Comments section below.  I tend to get the “earthquake tireds” in the 2-5 day window before a major quake, but curiously I didn’t have one ahead of the Kamchatka event last week.

Whether that was because I was too deep in work-related projects to notice?  Might it infer an even bigger quake is pending?  Stick around.  We should know in  a week, or so.

Elsewhere, the weekly list of exciting entertainment has filled-in.  Annual Medicare wellness checks are coming up shortly.  Our provider has been trying to talk us into a “home visit” which we are managing to resist.

I figure they’re kinda like “the shot” – maybe something else going on.  Was it my mention of having a 100-meter rifle range out back, possibly?  Or, finding out that a cousin of mine passed a few weeks back and do I have any interest in any of his (extensive) library of Czech, Polish, Bulgarian, Russian, and Chinese AKs and variants? Sealed 640-round ammo cans?

I never understood why Russia packaged their 7.62 X 39 rounds in such cans?  If you know, pass it along.  Maybe it was just a convenience:  Canned hams (extra large) fit in such things.  Was it a numbering quirk in Cyrillic? Metric counting? 25.2982 is the square root of it, so…uh…I’ve been scratching my head over this one for years.

Bald spot for all my work.  And going half-deaf from test-firing for answers. “Fire!” Then reassemble the surviving unfired rounds in new (package) configurations…  Takes a while to fire-back from 640 to 1, I’ve noticed. (So have the neighbors…)

Write when you get rich,

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