On our Subscriber’s-Only side, Peoplenomics.com, the Wednesday column began like this:

“Let’s Play “Top Calling!”

Sure – and why not?  We can say with mathematical certainty that we will eventually be right.  Just maybe not today.

But that won’t stop us, no sir.  Plates are moving out West, Putin’s still warring, so are we, and besides, the Fed FOMC decision is this afternoon – so what the hell, right?”

Which matters to markets (which knows better): as  Trump hits dozens more countries with steep tariffs | Reuters.

Fast-forward to the overnights (ahead of the Jobs confessional) and here’s the updated data trace with our pre-open comments from Wednesday intact:

Keep in mind, this is all based on our unique Aggregate Index view.  Because the financial engineers play Three Index Monte (Dow, S&P, and Techs) all the time.  We were driven to invest differently when – following the Tech Wreck in 2000 – the financial shills didn’t say anything about investor wealth trauma and  bait-and-switched into selling non-tech.  Until the (oh, so convenient) 9/11 came along.  And that meant an instant hiring spree (at places like TSA) to bail out the economy and wear that moralistic Cloak of Righteousness.  (Check with Gazans on how that rolls…)

About here, you may feel dazed and begin wondering “What’s NEXT with these clowns?”

August is Easy

But, not too.

As we had been explaining, Jay Powell’s FOMC did the reasonable thing:  Holding back on a rate cut (despite the Ballroom Builder in Chief’s grand designs).

The BUES Big Ugly Economic Secret) is that 99 percent of people in America are swindled into thinking that hard work will result in making more money.  Which is nominally True.

Thing is, though, as you make more money, or so you think, the amount of money in circulation is jacked up.  The Central Bankers collect interest on it, too. Which is how they build their new headquarters.

You step onto the Economic Elevator in your 20s, hit the button for the 28th-floor penthouse, and work your ass off for 40 years—feeding the Elevator Maintenance Fund as you go. Retirement comes… ding… doors open—and you’ve risen 18 inches. WTF, right?

It’s  clever as hell, really.  And the only way to “beat the Game” is to buy high-demand assets that capture the inflation spread over TIME.

Readers will remember when we sailed out of SF Bay and turned south in late 2001 (post 9/11) we loaded the boat (figuratively) with precious metals.  Then, when the HR grenades went off in my Gold Partner sales gig, we bought acres in highly sustainable East Texas.

No, we’re not geniuses, but we’re also lazy-enough to figure out the game. In the Continuous Inflation Model of (business-owned, nominally labeled) Constitutional Republics, buying when the “blood is running in the streets” is the shortest Lyft to Boardwalk.

Which zips to this morning’s bottom line:  Musical Chairs comes to a screeching halt, now and then.  Call ’em Recessions, Corrections, Crashes, Depressions – all just a matter of degree.  To these old eyes, a false flag, war expansions, a new biothreat, or a fresh “aliens are coming” meme, are exactly the kind of bait-and-switches that can keep you in the game and playing longer.

The Monthly Jobs Confessional

The financial shill channels — which don’t explain anything, except how the craps game out back is minting billionaires hourly — may not remind you (so we will):  There is Establishment Data on employment.  And there is Household Data.  The Establishment Data is the talking point. The Household Data is the experiential (stick in the eye) part.

Enough of the foreplay though.  Let’s throw in with The Establishment.

Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July (+73,000) and has shown little change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. The unemployment rate, at 4.2 percent, also changed little in July. Employment continued to trend up in health care and in social assistance. Federal government continued to lose jobs.”

Realists, seeing the database (and households) instead see this:

Household down 260,000, is it?  While the other says “Nothing to see here?”

Want the math? Or is reality already hitting too hard?

Whiners and One-Liners

Oh, my.  There goes a Newsome campaign plank: Pentagon pulls back more National Guard troops in Los Angeles.  Which leaves the climate swindle fear-mongering in play: The Politics of Weather in Beautiful California – California Globe.

The Best Government money can buy files: Eastern District of New York | Oyster Bay Resident Pleads Guilty to $30 Million Investment Fraud Scheme and Selling Foreign Nationals Access to Prominent U.S. Politicians | United States Department of Justice

And oh my – @amuse on X: “DURHAM ANNEX: The DNC Chair (Debbie Wasserman Schultz) coordinated with the SVP of Soros’ Open Society Foundation (Leonard Benardo) on the creation of what would become the Steele Dossier. The Durham Annex proves that the Clinton campaign, the FBI, Fusion GPS, the DNC, and Soros’ 

Meanwhile, you are what you’re fed:  Tulsi Gabbard exposed that Project Mockingbird is still going. Wants to close it

Out of the frying pan, into the liars? RNC Chair Michael Whatley announces Senate bid in North Carolina.

Two sides to the  political mess, though. Be sure to watch: FOLLOW THE MONEY: Epstein’s Crimes, Sleazy Banks, and the Trump Conspiracy to Cover It Up On Youtube.

The Left, poster children for historical revisionism, seem to have a problem when the shoe is on the other foot: Trump’s impeachments disappear from Smithsonian amid White House pressure: report.

How to handle a Border Crisis: Greece Declares Migrant Crisis an ‘Invasion’ — Suspends Asylum Claims and Detains All New Arrivals.  Hmm.  So that’s how it works, hunh?

Flag this for James McCanney: Longest lightning bolt stretched 829km across US. solar discharge more than just a “conspiracy theory” maybe?

Around the Ranch: Weekend Wish Well

Toss a penny, close your eyes — and wish for no black swans, dead air, or power grid failures. Welcome to your weekend briefing: light weather recon, cultural distractions, and a few caution flags for the road ahead. Let’s dip the bucket.

You can toss a penny, too.  I lost her phone number.

Weathering:

• Pacific Northwest: Mild and misty, highs in the 70s. Great for hiking, bad for solar panels. Bitch, bitch, bitch… shut up and watch the hydro races.  Seafair Weekend Festival 2025 – Seafair  Shoot-out between the Miss Beacon Electric and the Miss Apollo is expected.   We’re surprised the City muthas haven’t called the race for overt gender insensitivity which is what socialist city government….oh, don’t start me….I’m the guy who was pushing for a rehab outfit to field something against Miss Budweiser back in the day…it’s the  (Stan Sayres) pits in Seattle this weekend….

• California:

  • NorCal: Fire watches in some dry inland valleys, otherwise upper 80s.

  • SoCal: Coastal fog in the mornings, sunny by lunch, highs in the 80s. Fog is also common in Sacramentia year-round.

• Southwest (AZ/NM): Monsoon pop-ups in the afternoons — flash flood alerts if you’re road-tripping. Stay high and dry. Golf on coals, elsewhere.

• Texas and Gulf Coast: Heat dome still cooking. Triple digits possible across Central Texas. Gulf humidity? 110% sarcasm. 110F feels like temps here. Mowing at sunrise, beer breakfast OK after – if you trimmed, too…

• Midwest: Warm, with scattered t-storms. Iowa and Illinois fair to partly angry. Ear open for NOAA alerts.

• Northeast Corridor: Highs in the 80s, but weekend humidity creeps back in. You’ll stick to your car seat by Sunday.

• Southeast: Tropical moisture spinning up from the Atlantic. No named storms, but keep an eye south of Bermuda out east of the D.R.

• Rockies: Cool nights, warm days. If you’ve got a tent and good knees, now’s your weekend. Campfire caution.

• Alaska & Hawaii:

  • AK: Rainy in Juneau, mild in Anchorage.

  • HI: Beautiful. Again. You’re welcome. Prophecy sites buzz about potential for an even bigger quake more Japan-centric.  Pay them no mind. (Unless they’re right!)

Farmer’s Almanac Vibe: If you haven’t picked tomatoes or peppers this week, do it before they cook on the vine.

That’s Entertainment!

In Theaters (Aug 2)

• “Silo Run” (Sci-Fi Thriller) – Think Mad Max meets Children of Men. Grain storage meets government collapse. Surprisingly good reviews from real preppers.  Bring your own surplus ICBMs for full effect.
• “Redemption Ride” (Drama) – Horse movie, PTSD, and long desert roads. For the emotional stoics and nags.
• “Killer App” (Tech Horror) – AI becomes self-aware after being trained on Reddit comments. You can imagine the bloodbath. Sort of like a new Windows release – with popcorn and a happy ending.

Streaming Picks?  Netflix:

• “Echelon” (Season 2) – Spying, backstabbing, and predictive algorithms. You know, Wednesday.
• Prime Video:
• “The Bugout Years” – A fictional reality show about collapse preppers. You’ll laugh. Then recheck your ammo count and water storage.
• Disney+: “Astro-Park” – Think Space Mountain turned into a narrative. Family-friendly, but your inner kid will dig it. Watch PornHub for a coming sequel: Astro-Gilder… (“They’re coming for you in the end?”)

The Weak Ahead

• Fed Fallout: Market still digesting Powell’s decision to sit on rates like a hen on glass eggs. We did call a top Wednesday, remember?
• Tariff Ratchet Watch: Biden (who?) and Trump camps both posturing for tariff leverage. Global freight rates already hinting at pressure. “Jail Hillary” pre-runs are building.
• Israel/Iran Watch: It’s Friday. Things like to flare after prayers. Geiger Gospel readings soon.
• Ukraine: No dramatic breakthroughs, but drone attacks continue inching into Russian interior. Russia’s not likely to wait for NATO’s first move late month…
• China: Housing sector looking worse by the week. Keep your eye on Evergrande’s zombie offspring. If U.S. sales falter, Xi will eye Taiwan to re-unify nationalist vibes.
• Market Mood: Everyone’s waiting for the jobs data to be revised again after Monday’s damage is done. Sunday night futures will likely peg odds of a Turnaround Tuesday.

Personal

• 45-Days out from Q3 IRS Estimated Quarterly filings – plan monthly cash flow now.
• Bread, milk, and booze on the shopping list?  Sativa where legal?
• Low Vision Home and Workshop options on ShopTalk Sunday this week.

And on that cheerful note, let’s see how the short side plays work out today, shall we?

Write when you survive it all,

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