I spent the better part of an hour this morning in deep debate.  “Is this a “waffle weave” or an “awful weave” my country is doing right now?”

Some days (suspiciously like this one) have nothing but loose ends, posturing, headline-attention getters, and refried BS served like it’s a steak.  But does it all matter? Um…

Hard telling, based on the evidence.

HR Grenade and “Ceasefire”

More changed in the military to keep track of: Pete Hegseth fires U.S. Navy Secretary John Phelan.  We could empty a six-pack or two on this:  Should military leaders be kick-ass warriors #1 or competent administrators and implementer?  What? No consensus here, either?

Well, how about Pentagon warns Hormuz mine clearance could take months: report? And it just keeps getting messier as Iran shows off its control over strait after collapse of peace talks | Reuters.

Meanwhile, not sure how Hezbollah fits (they’re the local Iran proxy) but for show here are Five things to know about the second round of Lebanon-Israel talks in US.

Honestly, we were surprised to see the timing on this one: US Halts Iraq Cash to Pressure Iran-Backed Militias.  Seems to me this would be the kind of thing you’d do before committing forces, but not my wheelhouse, huh?

Small-bore Thursday it is!  BB-sized impacts, but bigger arms to come.

Government Finance Dept.

Now let’s look in on those govt. types who spend it like it was theirs, not ours.

Take this one: US government could end up with 90pc stake in rescued Spirit Airlines. Does this signal that bailouts for airlines will be this economic cycle-ending version of the previous financial bailouts that seem to come with economic declines?

While pondering that, let’s keep up the spending: Senate adopts budget resolution after marathon “vote-a-rama” as GOP moves to fund ICE without Democrats.

But let’s also remember the Fed meeting is next week and we still think no rate cuts because inflation is still hot and (thanks, Iran war!) getting hotter. President Donald Trump’s Right-Hand Man at the Federal Reserve Is Reconsidering His Interest-Rate Outlook. Are Rate Cuts Off the Table in 2026?

Here’s one to worry on: An actual rate hike.  The economics are there.  The political will?  Ha! Are you kidding?

Daily Data Doses

Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator has just rolled:

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.20 in March from +0.03 in February. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.03 in March from +0.03 in February.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.04 in March from –0.08 in February. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 51 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from February to March, while 40 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

With a second indicator in the weekly unemployment filings:

If you’re banging the 10-key trying to tally things up? Americans cut spending due to higher gas prices and see no relief in sight, CNBC survey finds.  A look in your checkbook should have told you as much.  That’s why we live ridiculously below our income.  No worries, got it?

Tomorrow will be similar to Monday, a kind of ikigai Friday.  What’s going to be our motivation to get up to hit and get tomorrow?

Drought Coming

The worst for last.

For months, I’ve been jumping up and down about drought and how food is going to be rotating front and center before the year is out.  Sure enough Wildfires — fueled by drought — destroy homes across parts of Georgia and Florida.

We can’t be sure how much is weather and how much famine (still to come, wait for it) will be driven by WAR.  Iran war pushing more than 30 million back into poverty, UN development chief says | Reuters.

Around the Ranch: Why Rural Rocks

I was reminded Wednesday of how distinctly different rural life is from the BCRR (big city rat race). It’s a good story and it makes a point.  I’ll count the people involved as we go because it’s the web of humans that’s our centerpiece here.

Elaine and I had (her birthday) dinner with neighbors at a nice steakhouse in Tyler, Tuesday night.  Steak, lobster, Caesars, red wine – the usual.

Partway into dinner, my neighbor mentioned “Y’all haven’t seen a dog have you? Our wiry hair old puppy has wandered off – been missing several days now.”  ( Human #1- the neighbor fellow)

No, we hadn’t, but we promised to keep an eye out.

Fast forward to Wednesday afternoon, a little after 3 PM.

UPS driver Justin brought me a package and – in passing – asked “You looking for a dog?  There’s this dog that was just sitting in the middle of the road partway down to the creek from your gate…” (Human #2 – the UPS driver)

I went in the house and called Mrs. Neighbor to tell her “Your missing dog may be on our road…” (#3- me)

I was up to my ears in things, so I asked Elaine to hike down the road a ways to look for the dog.  Which she did (accompanied by three feral guard cats).  (#4-Elaine)

A few minutes later the FedEx truck pulls up.  Cameron gets me my boxes and says “I saw your wife down looking in the brush by the side of the road – anything you want me to tell her on the way out? (#5-FedEx driver)

Pretty soon, Mrs. Neighbor shows up to retrieve  the dog. (#6-Mrs. Neighbor, heart of gold, missing the old blind dog).

But she wasn’t driving; see she’s had a few wrist problems, so her daughter, next house down from them, was driving (#7- Mrs. Neighbor’s daughter).

Now here’s the point and it explains something worth knowing.  Even though we are “rural” we are never really “alone” out here.  Everyone’s got your back.

I’ll never forget as a young reporter covering the stories about how people in New York were being mugged as folks walked by.  Turned my stomach and lowered my opinion of New York permanently.  (Recent politics there haven’t helped, either.)

I know from 50-plus years of city living that this sort of spontaneous “community problem solving” doesn’t just pop up in town.  Damn few can be bothered to help find an old blind, wandered-off dog. In fact, when I was married (previous, long ago) and running on the rat wheel myself, I didn’t even know the name of the person three houses down.  Seriously. Suburbia wasn’t “community” – not by a “country mile.”

But I’ll tell you where I DID find in-city community: Live aboard sailboaters at Shilshole Bay Marina. If you needed a hand with anything, everyone – even from several docks away – would hear and show up to help. THAT is why sailing is great. Watch the weather, the mountains and everyone is Ure friend.

It’s like that here in the outback, too.

Sure, dogs get lost in town – and found. But, often as not, they end up in the pound (with a bill due and owing). Or, they’re never seen again. Of course, occasionally signs go up and Craigslist is a godsend.  But this kind of happy-ending?  It was great.

For us, it underscored how “more connected” people are to one another out here.

And how people in the “rat race” have lost something more valuable than a buck. Y’all have fun on the wheel.

See you tomorrow for “Fragmentation Friday” – will the weekend blow up?

Write when you get rich,

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