A “tell me it ain’t so” for the doubters of our work… Or for those who thought we were nuts walking out on the Corporate World in 2003, Or moving to the woods. Or stocking up for trouble. Or…
And just like that, the rhythm of history taps us on the shoulder again. The 1929 comparison isn’t about crystal balls — it’s about pattern recognition. Same psychology, same hubris, same rollover in progress. Different names, same games.
We’re not calling for a carbon-copy collapse — but when the tape rhymes this closely, even the blindfolded can feel the breeze from the cliff edge. That first dead-cat bounce in ’29? We’re right in the zone now. Watch for a snapback… but don’t mistake it for salvation. This is where traps are set.
For now, here’s what the New Normal looks like:
Oh,, and you still see that line (and faint yellow arrow) that I drew for you Friday?
Three swings at the Future now:
- We could stop AT the trend support.
- We could fall UNDER trend support. Then, either rally back and resume down 0 the Easter Rally hope festival before Israel pops Iran…
- We could turn UP into the close and have a barn-burner “Turn-around Tuesdsay.”
Me? I don’t need the stress – BP is high enough, thank you.
Nikkei 225 was down 7.83 percent overnight – which translates to a 2,600-odd point loss (if you have a yen for specifics). We can see where a drop in the BoJ rate – which would support re-entry to the Yen-stocks carry trade could be along. Japan needs people playing their game to keep their pension funds and whatnot liquid. They have a mess of demographic problems. So I asked “the stack” about it:
“Japan’s long-term outlook is boxed in by an aging population, stagnant birth rates, and decades of monetary quicksand. The Bank of Japan can cut rates, sure — but they’re already dancing on the floorboards. Any re-entry into the yen-carry trade might juice the Nikkei short-term, but it’s a temporary sugar high masking structural rot.
With more retirees than workers and shrinking domestic consumption, Japan is increasingly reliant on foreign capital and market momentum to keep the illusion alive. Their pension system is a time bomb wrapped in low yields and wishful thinking. Unless there’s a demographic miracle or productivity revolution, the only viable play is to keep exporting volatility and hope the world keeps biting.”
So, I asked my playful processor pals “Which countries are in the running to be the site of the 1929 Depression Replay of the Great Crash in Future history books, huh? Give me there odds…”
“Ah, the honor of imploding first. A grim coronation, but history loves a headline crash. Here’s your Odds Table for the Next Great Historic Market Crash™, current as of this quiet-but-tense Monday:
? Crash Watch – April 7, 2025 Odds Board
| Country | Odds | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| JA Japan | 3:1 | Aging population, deflationary death spiral, pension risk, and a Nikkei teetering after a 7.83% drop. Carry trade unwind could yank the rug hard. |
| CN China | 4:1 | Real estate bubble still deflating, youth unemployment high, export slowdown, and opaque accounting. But tighter capital controls slow the visible crash. |
| EU Eurozone | 6:1 | Germany flirting with recession, ECB trapped between inflation and stimulus, and peripheral nations still wobbly. A sovereign debt spiral remains the sleeper. |
| US United States | 8:1 | We’re overdue on historical rhythm, and if the current “1929 echo” plays out, the bounce becomes the bait. However, dollar strength and liquidity delay the reckoning. |
| UK United Kingdom | 12:1 | Post-Brexit drift and fiscal messes are real, but the economy’s too small to trigger a global headline crash. |
| * Wild Card: Emerging Markets | 15:1 | A fast collapse in Turkey, Argentina, or South Africa could send shockwaves, but they’re likely to be written off as localized flare-ups rather than “historic crash” material. |
Meanwhile, did you see our “cryptocism” is coming in? Bitcoin tumbles below US$77,000 as fears trigger crypto rout…
This Week’s Tee Times
Future is always going into the rough, lately.. T-shot at 3 PM today is the Fed’s Consumer Debt report. Watch to see how it slices. Will people sit on their wallets or keep on “spending to the ending?”
NFIB report tomorrow morning. Fed Minutes 2 PM Wednesday. Consumer prices Thursday. PPI Friday.
Screaming at Streaming
We have always opted for “precision strike thinking” in the face of unwarranted hubris. We sort of expect Israel to behave the same way. As Iran insists on indirect nuclear talks with US while warning it will respond to use of force. Iran’s rather expert at “running the clock” (*and playing folks like Obama for fools). The talk clock is about run-out. While we still think a rally from a solid trend line bounce is possible, a rally into Easter would sure tempt us into a long weekend short. Good Friday is 11 days out and markets will be closed…
RFK Jr. is not “bench warming in DC” as RFK Jr. visits epicenter of Texas measles outbreak after death of second child who was infected.
Mooned
Driven by a highly extensible mind can be very entertaining. Especially with the odd news headline. Like Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 3.8% chance of hitting the moon. Won’t happen until December 22, 2032. But here’s an interesting “sci-fi exercise.”
Imagine the moon gets struck – and the orbit shifts a little. Not a ton, but enough to make a change of tidal calculations on Earth.
Now, model as the long-expected “Global Coastal Event” and tell me what it looks like? Fellow author A,.G. Kimbrough ought to be able to sling out a real page-turner before we all go swimming… A kind of follow-on to his “Coastal Event Memories – Vol. 1”
What?
Think I’m a little deep into catastrophism? Mean like the market’s aren’t?
Around the Ranch: Dream Work and the A.I. Take
This is long. But it’s also interesting as hell, what happened this weekend.
The precis? Well I had an absolutely incredible vivid as Life itself dream – and then I did a sit-down with my A.I. stack to analyze it. But the story itself? Well…mind-bending. Elements of Bill & Ted meets Total Recall.
If you have time, you may enjoy reading it at (Mythos) A Visit to the Mine – Hidden Guild.
Write when you get rich and see you for turnaround Tuesday — maybe?
Read the full article here