Dow Futures +1,000.  They don’t call it “Turnaround Tuesday” for nothing.

Stock futures are looking positively ducky with the Dow set to pop at the open +750 to +1,000 (on the early Futures board).  Why, even the “yeller dog” [Gold] seems to have regained the “right side” of $3,000.

On the other hand, Bitcoin was struggling with $79,000 when we looked, so the World is still crazy and on a wobbly perch.  But, you take what you can get, right?

RIE (Rally Into Easter) or Wry?

There is a reasonable case for a rally now.  Though, we don’t offer financial advise, when you’ve been covering finance (or been a player) for, um, 55-years, it’s hard not to offer an opinion now and then.  Just take it with some Maalox and worry about keeping your own socks up.

Let’s start with our Aggregate Index of the U.S. markets.  At the Monday manic moment, we were well below the long-term trend line.  About in the area the faint yellow arrow points on the right:

With the market back up (at least for now) over the “danger zone” we have to look consider that we don’t have a “print” (closing) under the trend, so maybe this will prove to be a “sucker rally” for the Commercials to harvest a bit more cash from the flock.  Shear pleasure is taken in stripping sheep, by some.  All it will take is some talking heads on the idiot-box announcing it’s “Time to BTFD” (buy the f*cking dips!) and the greed-driven stampede will be on.  We don’t want ewe to be taken-in.

This is how market turns often happen:  You get an intra-day low (like Monday), a fake-out rally.  And then the pro’s have a sense of how gullible the sheep are.  So they run a “real rally” for a few days (3-7) and then whee!  Out come the shears, again!

The opposing view is that since the NASDAQ is in position to where this could be a Real Bottom, then grasping for higher may follow.

There are several Elliott Wave ideas implied; including the one above.  For now, we are sitting in cash while the eidetic symphonic memory replays the classic BTO.  *(Under 50? Just slow?  Bachman-Turner Overdrive – “Let it Ride“.  Obviously you missed the decades of rock n’ roll news god; try to be earlier to the party next time…)

If you’re over 50, crank it up as we watch the magic metals which seem to be Alright Now.

Try to Remain Level-Headed…

The NFIB report just out offers caution to the BTFD crowd, too:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 8, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined by 3.3 points in March to 97.4, falling just below the 51-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index decreased eight points from February’s second highest reading to 96.

“The implementation of new policy priorities has heightened the level of uncertainty among small business owners over the past few months.” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Small business owners have scaled back expectations on sales growth as they better understand how these rearrangements might impact them.”

No the world hasn’t changed… and longer-term?

Italian for “Depression“

“depressione economica”

One of my late market mentors, cut-down by the bioweapon, used to tell me “A Depression is what happens when a recession runs into a food supply shortfall.”

Thus, a hat-tip is in order this AM to reader JC  in Italy who spied this little pointer while (we assume) sipping his demitasse: 1930s Dust Bowl Conditions Are Returning To The Middle Of The United States.

My writing instructor says, whispering “Enjoy it while you can” about the demitasse “…a demitasse (French for “half cup”) is a small cup typically used for serving espresso. It usually holds about 2 to 3 ounces (60–90 ml), just enough for a single or double shot. They’re often made of porcelain, glass, or ceramic, and sometimes come with matching saucers. Perfect size for intense thoughts in small doses…”

Not nearly enough Jolt for serious coding, but useful before, oh,  a cardiologist visit, for example.

Trash-Filtered News

Iran is going for “talks without talking”, are they?  FM releases more details on upcoming Iran-US talks – Mehr News Agency.  Gee, maybe they can do listening without hearing, too…

Support your local Drug Thug is going out of style:  US Supreme Court lets Trump pursue deportations under 1798 ‘enemy alien’ law, with limits.

Bluster, Braggadocio, and Beijing:  China vows to ‘fight to the end’ after fresh U.S. tariff threat. But wait: ?In 2023, China exported goods worth approximately $501.22 billion to the United States, with key sectors including electrical equipment, machinery, and furniture. This figure represented a significant portion of China’s total exports, indicating a substantial reliance on U.S. trade. So, until they figure out how to have a middle class on their own, tough is not a winning move.

Has Crypto been a dis-info op?  We might put a buck on that as Crypto lawyer files lawsuit against DHS to expose Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity.

Fires on the Wires

Or, Liars and their Pyers

• Israeli Witness’s Fabrications Uncovered: An Israeli man, Rami Davidian, who claimed to have rescued hundreds from Hamas fighters and witnessed mass rapes on October 7, 2023, was exposed as a liar by journalist Raviv Drucker. Davidian’s accounts were found to be entirely fabricated. ?The Electronic Intifada  (with a grain of salt)

• Kenyan Political Accusations: Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua accused President William Ruto of being a “liar” and claimed to possess recordings proving that Ruto offered him a financial package to resign. ?NTV Kenya Beats a bullet, though.

• Channel 4’s Dating Show Campaign: Channel 4 launched a campaign exposing lies in modern dating, featuring a film that satirizes the falsehoods people tell on dating apps. ?Campaign Live. For everything else, there’s lawyers.

• WHO’s Alcohol Consumption Claims Challenged: The World Health Organization stated that no level of alcohol consumption is safe, a claim that has been criticized as misleading and lacking scientific evidence. Northwest Wine Report. Given a choice between COVID shots and a liter of vodka, I don’t suppose you’d care to guess…um…

At the Ranch: Coal-Fired Food, Pigs are a Problem

The Old Ways of BBQ:  We are awaiting the signature on this: Trump to sign executive orders to boost coal industry, sources say | Reuters. Normally, this would be in the “news section” above.  But there was a book (1950’s) by George Herter – founder of the Herter’s Catalog and an early giant in the gun reloading mail-order business.

Thing is, cooking over (hard) coal was spelled out in one of the obscure books in our library obscura:

“?George Leonard Herter’s Bull Cook and Authentic Historical Recipes and Practices is a distinctive and eclectic cookbook first published in 1960. Co-authored with his wife, Berthe E. Herter, the book blends recipes with historical anecdotes and personal opinions, reflecting Herter’s idiosyncratic style. The content spans a wide range, from traditional dishes to unconventional topics, including instructions on dressing game and advice on surviving nuclear attacks. This unconventional mix showcases Herter’s penchant for combining practical guidance with his unique perspectives.

The cookbook’s organization is notably unorthodox, with sections covering meats, desserts, game preparation, beverages, and miscellaneous advice, all arranged in a loosely alphabetical order. Herter’s narratives often include bold assertions and historical interpretations that are both entertaining and controversial. For instance, he provides detailed accounts of the origins of various cocktails, sometimes challenging widely accepted histories. This blend of culinary instruction and colorful commentary has earned the book a cult following among readers who appreciate its quirky and unapologetic approach to food and history. The Neglected Books Page

The problem is I haven’t been able to find a place to order 25-pounds of “cooking coal” and I think it would also be interesting to try in a wood-fire pizza oven, too.  If you have a source (or experience with coal BBQing) drop a comment, if you please. Buddy Mike out in San Ramon (who makes a killer wood-fire pizza) might find it useful, too.

Pig Problems:  

A different buddy of mine is coming by for coffee this morning.  I’m going to read him in on some network stuff and he’s going to come up with a Pig Plan.  Seems the pigs have discovered my front yard, so Mr. AK will be doing some, oh, birth control.  Rooting areas under  yellow arrows:

Most people in Yankeeville don’t understand that a wild boar sow can drop 40 piglets a year, so if you don’t kill off 95 percent of them, you’re getting behind the problem.  Very bad animals, known to charge humans. Every so-often they will kill and eat and unsuspecting person which explains (if you’re slow) why we ALWAYS roll armed.  Ever face a 350 pound male boar that can run 29.6 MPH?  Guaranteed to change your view on large caliper handguns.  If you survive.

May also explain why we don’t have as many feral cats around…that herd is down 70 percent.

OK…Mr. Ure’s “Inventor Mind” is fully booked today.  More on Peoplenomics tomorrow, including a little 20-page checklist on maintaining your “balance in all things” in the Second Depression.

Write when you get rich,

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