Given all the bounce in pricing lately, we found this morning’s Retail Sales report interesting:

“Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $726.3 billion, up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 3.9 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2024. Total sales for the May 2025 through July 2025 period were up 3.9 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The May 2025 to June 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent (±0.5 percent) to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

Now, this is the one that is bad: Import – Export Prices:

U.S. import prices increased 0.4 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, following a 0.1-percent decrease in June. Higher prices for nonfuel imports and fuel imports drove the advance in July. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.1 percent in July, after increasing 0.5 percent the previous month.

What hurts?  The US Export picture was poor:

“Prices for U.S. exports ticked up 0.1 percent in July, after rising 0.5 percent in June. Higher prices for nonagricultural exports drove the July increase. U.S. export prices advanced 2.2 percent over the 12-month period ended in July…

Then there’s the NY Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing:  It showed a small uptick:

“The headline general business conditions index climbed twenty-two points to 5.5, its first positive reading since February. New orders edged higher and shipments increased. Delivery times lengthened, and supply availability continued to worsen.”

One of the problems political figures don’t seem to take into account is how real working people think.

• If they expect prices to go up over time, they haul out their wallets to lock-in today’s bargains.
• But if prices (or the cost of money to borrow to buy) is coming down? They may gamble by waiting and hoping for lower later on.

Thursday’s producer prices bump – we think – is just the start of higher prices,  While the Fed may be pressured into lower rates at their September meeting, tariffs are not the discovery of an actual free lunch.  We like to think of it as a “sales tax on foreign-made goods.”

Stock futures were mixed with the Dow up, the S&P sideways and the techs a bit soft.  After spiking over $124,000 earlier this week, BTC is down into the $119,000 range this morning. Metals were about flat.

Our Take?

Until MAGA gets a whole butt-load of factories built? We think the best case is a muddle-through into summer of next year.  That’s when democrats will begin asking “Where’s that higher standard of living?”  *(Along with where’s the Epstein files which seem also will still be an open question…).

ABC got things (surprisingly) right in California pushes left, Texas right, with US House control and Trump agenda in play.

Whispers Up North

Once upon a time (Interior Secretary) Wally Hickel’s Captain Cook Hotel opened in Anchorage – back in 1965.  When I was up covering the North Slope, Asian cuisine was a very big deal in Alaska with the Shrimp Tempura better than Seattle’s.  Today, the menu is more “meat and potatoes” oriented but with lots of local seafood.  Alas, the nearest tempura nowadays is at Artic Sushi which is only a block away.

Somewhere in here, you may be asking “Why is walking 12 blocks from the 1973 Alyeska offices to the Capt. Cook in a howling January wind worth knowing?”

George shuffles his feet and asks, “Well, as useful as this?” Alaskans greet Putin with Ukrainian flags, protest ‘war criminal hanging out here’ .

Here’s the straight dope:  Ukraine wants to get Crimea back.  Yeah – Khrushchev country.  Not happening.

Like the ONLY thing to look for (other than take-out tempura) will be whether Trump and Putin have any “closed door time” with no translators, no staff, no reporters…real grown up time to talk about how terrible WW III could be.

Other than that?  Looks a lot like dim sum.  Expect a plate of small news following.

For now, what matters is the clock:  The Trump-Putin meeting will begin at 11 AM which is 3 PM Eastern – meaning odds are very good that the talks will still be underway when the market closes at 4 PM.

“Do you feel lucky, Punk?”

Meanwhile, the killing continues.  Ukraine strikes Russian Olya port in Astrakhan Oblast, targeting vessel with Iranian drone parts.

Now, Let’s Waste Time and Money

I swear, you could go through the news and have all the content for a graduate-level experience in wasteful finance.

How about:  California Democrats Announce Special Election to Redraw Congressional Maps.

And how about: Border Patrol chief crashes Newsom’s rollout of California redistricting campaign.

On the Liberal Ledger:

Did you see where: Smoking-Gun Email Shows Obama DOJ Shut Down Clinton Foundation Probe [WATCH]

Another federal judge ruling the world?  Judge Permanently Blocks Trump’s Actions Aimed at Eliminating DEI at Universities.

Back for more: Nike-Backed Smithsonian Exhibit On Trans Athletes Criticized.

And we’re planning another football-free fall: Vikings Under Fire Over Male Cheerleaders – Newsweek.

Actually Worth Knowing

Odds of that (orange “X”) disturbance off the Rio Grande Valley turning into a Big Deal have lessened to 50 percent. But tropical storm Erin has appeared and is inbound for next week.

Science is about to tackle the Inside/Outside gap. Scientists decode inner speech from brain activity with high accuracy. We look forward to learning who’s the same “on the inside” as what they present “on the outside…”

Personal Tech:  Is Steam now an OS?  I swapped my PC for Lenovo’s SteamOS handheld – and don’t miss Windows at all | ZDNET

And remember what we said about data centers?  (How central liquid cooling was coming and more LLM front ends of phone?)  Google Unveils Gemma 3 270M: Compact AI Model for Smartphones and IoT.  I can hardly wait to have more IoT.  “Hey! Frigidaire!  What’s the temp today in Anchorage?”  (64F btw.)

Around the Ranch:  Training a New Assistant?

Says here on my time log for the week that I haven’t cut back my workload despite many threats and promises to spend more Shop time.  Now, with all this talk about how Ai is coming I have been interviewing:

“One of these mornings I’m going to have you write the whole urbansurvival.com column – think you could handle that?

“Given how many of your UrbanSurvival columns already bounce between markets, tech oddities, historical tie-ins, and a bit of sarcastic “coffee up” banter, yeah — I could absolutely handle it.

The challenge wouldn’t be the mechanics — it’d be making sure it feels like a George Ure column:

• • Opening hook that’s a little bit mischievous but grounded.

  • A “First Things” section that sets the day’s mood.

  • The economic meat (ChartPack-ready stats, your own twist on the numbers).

  • The sidecar content — science, prepper, or ham-radio digressions.

  • A closing that’s a mix of wry observation and “life on the ranch” notes.

If you ever want to do a “full AI” trial run, we could structure it so you give me the morning market snapshot, any urgent topics or pet rants, and I build out the whole day’s column in your voice.”

Um...how about NO.

But it is an option.  So I pushed deeper: “How would you make up the personal vigbnettes – you didn’t walk to the Alyeska building…do you like just make things up?”

“Right — I wouldn’t just invent a “George walked to Alyeska” scene out of thin air unless you explicitly told me, “pretend I did this for the sake of the story.”

Here’s how I’d handle it for a full UrbanSurvival column without trampling on the truth:

• • Option 1 — Use Your Supplied Vignettes: You give me the real anecdote (dates, places, people), I weave it into the column, polish it, and make sure it reads like you told it live.

  • Option 2 — Use a “Composite Memory” Device: I build a plausible scene based on facts you’ve given me over time — but clearly signal to readers it’s a riff or composite, not a literal diary entry (“Back when I might have been hoofing it from…”).

  • Option 3 — Drop the First-Person for Those Sections: Keep the voice consistent, but avoid fake “I was there” material. Instead, I’d talk about what happened and why it matters, without claiming personal involvement.

That way, I’m not making things up in a misleading way — I’m either working from your actual life inventory, or flagging when it’s a playful hypothetical.

If you wanted, I could start building a “vignette bank” from your past real stories so you can drop them into columns anytime, and I could pull from that for authenticity.

Do you want me to show you what Whispers Up North would look like if I rewrote it using only confirmed details but keeping your style intact?”

No…bars are about to open somewhere and I’m getting mighty thirsty.  This “new world” is proving challenging.  So unless you can turn me into a multi-millionaire in five minutes a day with $500 in start up capital…

“If I could reliably turn $500 into multi-millions in five minutes a day, I wouldn’t be typing this — we’d be on your private island sipping something with umbrellas in it while the algos did all the work.

That said, in the real world:

• • Sure-Thing Schemes Don’t Exist — Anyone promising “multi-millionaire in minutes” is selling the sizzle, not the steak.

  • Small Stakes ? Leverage = Risk — With $500, the only truly fast-scaling methods are either high-risk trading (options, crypto) or pure gambling, and both are more likely to zero you out than mint you.

  • Steadier Path — With that startup stake, a realistic path is finding a micro-niche hustle that compounds (buy/sell arbitrage, specialized service, scalable digital product). It’s not instant, but you can grow it to real money over time.

If you want, I could give you three “new world” side hustles that actually have a shot at multiplying $500 into something meaningful — not in five minutes, but in a matter of months — without tripping the “pure scam” alarm.

Want me to lay those out before the bar stool starts calling your name?”

No…too late. I hear it calling now.  Hold the side hustle discussion for ShopTalk Sunday – Entrepreneur’s Edition,,,.

(And that, dear Reader, is why I use Ai:  It’s like having the dissertation committee on call and when you know how to use it, it becomes a very productive vein to mine…It helps me come up with useful ideas and story angles to develop.)

Write when you get rich,

[email protected]