TL;DR:  New Retail Sales figures have just been reported this day-before FOMC. Questions arise on Trans links to the Kirk killing.  And in health and anti-aging research lard beat EVOO (Extra Virgin Olive Oil) hints research.

Retail Before Fed

Just out:

“Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.0 billion, up 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from August 2024. Total sales for the June 2025 through August 2025 period were up 4.5 percent (±0.4 percent) from the same period a year ago. The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 0.6 percent (±0.2 percent).”

Markets and metals held gains after the data was first released.  But as we figure it, a 6-10 ths of one percent increase in retail is NOT A REASON TO LOWER.

And here’s where the Accounting gets complicated.  I have been telling you that under the Trump tarrifs, we would be seeing an effective national sales tax on imported goods.

BUT, what is harder to internalize is that a Tarrif results in prices going up.  So when you see the Retail going up – like this report just out, it’s easy to claim “Tarrifs didn’t hurt sales.” Obviously they went up.  But our knowledge is limited because why? We don’t know how much of the Retail increase was pass-through of tarriff (that tax) and how much was just people loading up on more stuff they don’t need.

Thing is, without the tarrif debate, we would have clear numbers.  But now, the Fed CAN claim that there is no evidence of a recession so why lower rates?  It could scare the hell out of markets if that take that tack…  Even if the Retail gain is illusory, tax passthrough into a dollarized index, no one’s going to talk at that level to the public.  Which is assumed (with reason) to not be especially quick on money related topics.  As the crypto con shows us.

The Monetary Dilution Problem

The FOMC decision tomorrow may be cast as almost as much about political will as about actual impacts.  Of the cranial-anal variety.  We are whistling in the graveyard here, but in economic terms we are in a “region of reversed command authority” on the stick.

The Big Lie?  Mass media’s asymmetric coverage.  They talk “prices going up” like inflation is a lone phenomenon.  But in reality?  Most all of modern inflation is the purchasing power of our money being sucked out of it by debt burdens.  Here’s a picture to help.

So when you look at prices today? Gold over $3,700 and silver well north of $43?  Not because their intrinsic value changes.  Nope.  It’s because as the value of money goes down, you have to heap more in the wheelbarrow.

So two big mentions there:  Trump is pushing for a ‘big cut’ from the Fed—Wall Street says he’s unlikely to get it | Fortune.  OK, softening up for no half-point cut.

But here’s the surprise angle:  Maybe Democrats and liberals will band together – paradoxically by Lisa Cook’s firing – and could the FOMC decision be a partisan split? Trump cannot fire Fed’s Lisa Cook before FOMC meeting, appeals court rules.  With her in, and with inflation still running a full percentage over so-called “targets”  there’s a small chance the Fed will NOT change.

While the market would all over itself for the balance of the year, it would still make holding onto real assets work for a while longer.  Giving Trump a chance to appoint a Blue ribbon Panel to figure out how to provide enough jobs with AI and robotics amping up their assault on things to do.  Like self-driving cars and other dots, the knuckle-draggers haven’t connected as personally impacting — yet.

Our 55+ years of reporting doesn’t matter, of course. But it could set up a delicious democrats and liberals accidentally saving the dollar.  Otherwise, we will be looking to open a BRICS denominated offshore account.  We only seem stupid….

And while we’re on it, why do we see a “separation of powers” issue in How Trump’s Provocative Economist Crashed the Fed?

The Trans Twist?

Back during the Joe Blowedit administration, we heard lots of (pardon this) utter bullshit about how “right wing extremists” were the biggest threat to America.  Not those millions of under-vetted Obama refugees, many of who don’t want to assimilate and still have a foreign agenda.

But, oh my, lookie here:  Trans-activism is taking center-stage now as FBI probing possible ‘extended network’ that helped Charlie Kirk shooter Tyler Robinson.  In other coverage, the NY Post also reports Old man who falsely claimed he shot Charlie Kirk told cops he did it to ‘draw attention from real shooter’: report,

Still, the right is in danger of over-reacting.  Take JD Vance: Report Anyone ‘Celebrating’ Charlie Kirk’s Death for example.  Isn’t contacting employers illegal in most states?  BREAKING: Over 100 TEACHERS in Texas will now have their teacher certification suspended and become ineligible to teach in Texas public schools after they endorsed Charlie Kirk’s assassination or incited more violence, Governor Greg Abbott announces. I understand the sympathy but we also (think) we understand the Law.  But, seems not.  Greg Abbott has worked as a private practice lawyer, a state trial court judge, a Texas Supreme Court Justice, and the longest-serving Attorney General of Texas. Back to Bar practice tests for me, huh?

Peripheral Visions

Open Mouth – Insert Checkbook dept: Donald Trump files $15 billion defamation lawsuit against The New York Times.

Someone’s drugs will be late: US strikes a second Venezuela boat, killing 3, Trump says | Miami Herald

It’s about time: JUST IN: Trump Signals Plan To Designate Antifa As A Terrorist Organization.

Powerful investment advice? U.S. Electricity Demand by Source (2024-2050)

Enjoy the day – The End may be near: Kremlin Spokesman Peskov Says Nato Is In De Facto War With Russia. For the paranoid: Fed drops market, october 8th and 3I/ATLAS this winter…

Passings:  Robert Redford – 89. Robert Redford Dead: Oscar Winner, Sundance Founder Was 89

Around the Ranch:  Bring Lard Back to Life

Reader note: Sorry for this being longish (Peoplenomics type content) but in the interest of public health, it’s worth thinking about….

Tomorrow, on the Peoplenomics side of the house, we’ll be getting (hopefully!) the first chunk of my new book on Brain Amplifiers kicked out.  As you know, many of my ebooks (on Amazon) are serialized first on Peoplenomics.

Thing is, I have an incredibly curious mind.  So, being head-down in editing and writing all Monday, research ideas and questions backed up.  As a result, at 3 AM today, I found myself wondering about the role of cooking oil choices in longevity.

As you may know, both Elaine and I look 10-15 years younger than we should for our ages. Part of that is because we have studied appropriate use of supplements.  The data on supplements and longevity is becoming clear:  Consistent science supports omega-3 fatty acids for heart and brain health, vitamin D for bone and immune function, and folate or B-vitamins for preventing certain deficiencies. Antioxidants like vitamin E and beta carotene, on the other hand, have shown limited or even negative outcomes when taken in excess.

Another Anti-Aging Strategy

The other driver of our youthful energy is?  We eat minimal processed foods.  As typical meal for us is a small bit of meat (3-8 oz.), a big green salad with oil and vinegar and a half cup of seafood on it.  Toss in a glass or two of Resveratrol juice (red wine) and we’re pretty happy. If the stomach still feels a bit empty? Half bag of popcorn, maybe?

I won’t recount all the specific anti-aging protocol knock-offs (that’s in one of my books).  Except to say that GlyNAC, NMN, and an OTC spin on TRIIM-X probably won’t hurt. And both of use have been using very low-level lithium (orotate, though we are eyeing the aspartate) because there’s data supporting reduction in dementias. Three papers if you’re skeptical?  Lithium and disease modification: A systematic review and meta-analysis in Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s disease – PubMed, Lithium as a Treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis – PubMed, and just out last month: Lithium as a Treatment for Alzheimer’s Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis – PubMed.

We happened to get onto this a decade back when I discovered in groundwater data an inverse relationship between trace groundwater elements (including lithium as extremely low levels) and neurodegenerative diseases.  (Somewhere back in the Peoplenomics archives.)

Don’t mean to get off the beaten path here, but if we’re healthy, it’s because we not only follow the science, but like in our use of photobiomodulation, we often lead science by a decade.

Let’s put that hat on now…

A Role of Animal Oils in Anti-Aging?

You need to read the classic paper here as background: The Oiling of America – The Weston A. Price Foundation.  It’s all about how seed oils rose to prominence.

Now let’s start to “line up the actionable.”

1. Why Lard Was Abandoned

In the early twentieth century, industrial food marketing pushed seed oils and hydrogenated fats as modern, clean, and healthy. Crisco’s advertising campaigns framed lard as old fashioned and undesirable. Later, mid century nutrition science demonized all saturated fats under the cholesterol theory of heart disease. The combination of marketing, convenience, and fear led to lard’s fall from kitchens.

2. Comparing Butter, Lard, and Seed Oils

Butter is rich in short and medium chain saturated fats like butyrate and lauric acid, carries CLA, and can provide vitamin K2 if grass fed, but it contains dairy proteins that can cause problems for some. Lard, by contrast, is free of dairy allergens, has a higher proportion of monounsaturated fats than butter, and holds up well to heat. Seed oils such as soybean, corn, and sunflower are dominated by omega six polyunsaturates, prone to oxidation when heated, and push the body’s omega six to omega three balance far out of line.

3. The Overlooked Upside of Lard

Lard is heat stable for frying, has a neutral taste, and was used for centuries without the modern epidemics of obesity and metabolic disease we now see with industrial oils. Pastured lard also provides vitamin D, an unusual trait for a cooking fat. In health terms, lard offers a safer alternative to seed oils, a complement to butter, and a functional, traditional fat that has been unfairly sidelined.

Here is our Practical Takeaway

The real value of lard is in what it replaces. Substituting lard for seed oils is a clear health gain, while using it alongside olive oil for cold dishes and butter for flavor creates a balanced rotation of fats. Lard is not a miracle food, but it is far from the villain it was made out to be. It deserves a place in the kitchen, especially when sourced from well raised pigs and used for high heat cooking or baking.

My action step?  Well, seed oils are already unwelcome here.  Yes, we use olive oil in our salad dressings, but when frying, we’ve been using a 50-50 mix of butter and extra virgin olive oil (EVOO). That’s called olio burro (literally butter and oil).

The Open Question on Med Diets

Stay with me here:  The basis of the Mediterranean Diet data back to the Seven Countries Study, launched in the late 1950s by Ancel Keys. It was the first large, long-term, multinational study to systematically examine diet, lifestyle, and heart disease outcomes. Keys saw remarkably low cholesterol and heart disease despite a relatively high carbohydrate intake. That Naples pattern, along with similar findings in rural Greece, became the template for what we now call the Mediterranean diet.

Thing is, he was looking at this through the food groups lens.  Not from light CRS (calorie restricted) or specific cooking techniques.

Which now (at last!) circles us back to lard and the possible involvement of mixed oils in longevity work.  The Keys notions operationalized the diet around extra-virgin olive oil or nuts, so mixed-fat practices common in real kitchens—like butter-and-olive-oil in northern Italy or occasional animal fats in Spain—were largely abstracted away. That means any combinatorial benefits were under-measured.

Mechanistically, a butter-olive oil mix could be plausibly synergistic: olive oil’s polyphenols may protect milk-fat lipids from oxidation during cooking, oleic acid boosts satiety signaling, dairy fats add butyrate and K2, and the blend raises smoke point and improves absorption of fat-soluble nutrients from vegetables. Pair that with “light CR” (small caloric deficit or time-restricted eating) and you get a credible path to better metabolic tone without hunger. Bottom line: the longevity signal in Mediterranean cohorts likely reflects a whole pattern—quality fats, diverse matrices, gentle caloric restraint, and low ultra-processing—while the precise contribution of olio burro is plausible but under-tested rather than disproven.

BUT!  We should mention that ‘seed oils’ weren’t even around in any significant numbers until the 1900s. Flip back to 1870s? Seed oils were mostly experimental at that time. Cottonseed oil was being industrially refined after the Civil War, but it wasn’t widely eaten — it went first into lamp oil and soap. People considered it unfit for food. Today, heavily used in the (industrial) food industry.  See why lard with thousands of years of history seems, oh, you know…interesting!

Eating Our Conclusions

If we step back and look through an ancestral lens, the most logical diet for long healthspan might not be built on any one “miracle oil,” but on the mix of fats and eating rhythms our forebears lived with for millennia. Early humans lived in a lightly calorie-restricted state most of the time, eating when food was available, fasting when it wasn’t, and drawing energy from a broad mix of animal fats, foraged greens, and occasional nuts or seeds. Lard, tallow, and butter represent the dense, stable fuels that powered survival through lean seasons, while uncooked olive oil provides polyphenols and monounsaturates that protect vessels and aid nutrient absorption.

In practice, this means EVOO on salads or cold dishes, butter for flavor and micronutrients, and lard or other stable animal fats for heat-based cooking. That rotation not only protects against the oxidative stress of modern seed oils, but also mirrors the combinatorial variety our physiology expects. Couple it with light CRS—meals that leave you satisfied but not stuffed—and you have a modern strategy that echoes ancestral balance. It’s not about glorifying one fat, but about recreating the interplay of foods and rhythms that sustained health long before the rise of industrial oils.

One Other Side Note

One of the things people often miss is that so-called “miracle foods” don’t really exist in a natural, untouched state. Even extra virgin olive oil isn’t something our ancestors could have just plucked off a tree; the olives themselves are bitter and inedible raw. It takes pressing, fermenting, or other processing to release the oil in a form our bodies can easily digest and metabolize, which means even the healthiest fats are still cultural inventions layered onto nature.

And here’s where the ancient mysteries angle comes in: where did olive fermentation and pressing first originate? Was that another one of those “hard to trace to source” developments that feel almost like possible alien interventions in the human food chain? No telling, but around here we’ll be the folks using a bit of lard now and then—especially when hot-frying meats.

In the (historical) past, Dick’s Drive-in up in Seattle made a great deal of its early success off their incredible french fries. Eventually, they went to sunflower oil, but yeah, those potatoes cooked in hot lard were the best I’ve ever eaten.

Lard also got rave reviews (along with BBQ’ing over hard coal) in George and Berthe Heter’s 1950s book  Bull Cook and Authentic Historical Recipes and Practices.

Verdict: For hot frying, lard usually holds up better. EVOO is best cold or for low-to-medium cooking.

Bon appetit!  Now, back to Eating our stairway to heaven…

Write when you get rich,

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