With our ChartPack on the Peoplenomics side of the house ($40/year) showing the market back in “top-calling” territory, a number of moving pieces are sliding into place.

PPI – Inflation to Come?

Just out from Labor is the PPI read…

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.9 percent in July, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices were unchanged in June and moved up 0.4 percent in May. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final demand advanced 3.3 percent for the 12 months ended in July, the largest 12-month increase since rising 3.4 percent in February 2025. Within final demand, more than three-quarters of the broad-based advance in July can be traced to the index for final demand services, which rose 1.1 percent. Prices for final demand goods increased 0.7 percent.

While it is no guarantee of future price inflation, it’s occasionally an indicator.  But, as the Peoplenomics subscribers already know, the Trump Gap could show up Q3 2026 – or sooner. Pre-open markets sagged a bit on the news.

While the Fed may be strong-armed into a rate drop next month, few pundits are mentioning that the closely-watched “All Items Index” was actually up this week.  Such that even with a minor decrease in rates, everyone will pass along tariff costs and bringing MAGA factories is not an overnight deal. In a complex world, it could be a 5-10 year change.  In the meantime? Don’t plan on things getting cheaper.

PPPPP  *(Preview: Pre-Putin Peace Parlay)

While you’re not holding your breath for prices, might want to also not bother holding it for Peace.  Trump is being “worked” and since it reads to us like go-grovel, specifically in Zelenskyy rallies Trump, European allies in setting red lines for Putin summit,  seems to us the Developer-in-Chief will likely cave to Euro hardliners.

Oh, wait!  He already has:  Trump threatens ‘severe consequences’ if Putin blocks Ukraine peace.

Not wanting to slow its roll going into the talks, Explosions Rock Russia’s Volgograd, Lukoil Refinery Hit Overnight.  But that’s not going unnoticed in the Kremlin where Putin prepares for nuclear war on eve of Trump summit: Russia readys new cruise missile nuke for tests in satellite images after Donald warned of ‘severe consequences’ if Ukraine conflict continues.

Like I said, not a lot worth holding your breath for.

China is Flexing, Too

China is a “land of engineers” and as superb project planners, our demise has been in their plans ever since the book Red Dragon Rising came out – twenty years ago – and no one listened.

With the US now (trying) to reshore some industry to slug our way out of submission, China likely sees that while Trump may have his wheel “hard over” trying to change course, China knows this is not a “call to the lumber yard” fix.  Onshoring American factories will take years if not a couple of decades.  And that’s how the Trump Gap pops in mid to late 2026.

Back up to the overnights, now:  Chinese military ‘expels’ US warship from disputed South China Sea waters.  On paper, the US Navy is still strong, but the long-time promise in DC about “only American parts” in core defense projects?  No more reliable than promises of “sound money.”  (Or, the release of Epstein files and JFK files, and UAP files, and….)

Preview of Coming Distractions 

So, how do you sell a breaking narrative?  Stop counting?

Trump BLS nominee floats ending key jobs report.

Yeah – what could go wrong, right?

Speaking of which, the weekly Unemployment filings have just been released:

As for which state got hurt most in this?

Be sure to drop by tomorrow about this time. new Retail Sales figures will pop and a violent market reaction is possible.  On top of the two mercurial fellow’s pow-wow in Alaska.

Lawyering-Up and Other

The Biden family: the gift that keeps on giving, huh? Melania Trump threatens Hunter Biden with $1bn lawsuit over Jeffrey Epstein claim.

Still waiting for NYC to sink below the waves:  One of the big climate alarmist cries, but look here: The Climate Change Scam: Follow The Money! – Miami Independent.  Climate promoters will continue to claim the risk of sea level change is real.  Maybe even cite current developments like Record-breaking glacial floods threaten Alaskan capital as residents are forced to evacuate. But it is summertime up north. And yes, the Mendenhall glacial breaks off…  (Here, pet the nice dust bunnies…)

We mentioned the predictable Trump Bash would be along when t he Federal Debt topped $37 trillion.  OK, now what:  Federal Debt Surges In July As Trump’s Spending Spree Continues.  Well, um, now.  Congress allocates the money and we are in a budget passed BT (before Trump) so why the run to bash Trump and not the Auto-Joe and the spendthrifts on the Hill?

Futuring: More Texas flooding stories next week?  National Hurricane Center is tracking a developing low today that might bring in some rain next week – we will see how forecast models develop…  NOT showing up on the 10-day models for our area…but give it time.  these storms have to come up through the chairs…

Domain Schooling

As you know, I am an advocate of humans using Ai to leverage what we know.  (I ride in cars instead of walk, use a calculator or PC instead of long paper and pencil work, etc.).  And I’ve been studying domain theory a LOT.

Have a look at my Hidden Guild website for more, but the big idea is this:

• Humans tend to think “in domains” (inside the box)
• Human knowledge gets siloed.  Only experts are honored not idea surfers
• And this very Life itself is likely it’s own domain.
• Such that when we die, part of persona moves on to a next domain…

All endlessly interesting (yada, yada) as we read today how A Dark Mirror Universe May Be Hiding Next Door, Scientists Say.

Now taking side bets on another one next to that and another, and….

Around the Ranch  Important Senior Health Notes

Lots to go over here:

If you have taken those new shots to lose weight?  Popular weight-loss drugs linked to sudden vision loss, research suggests.

If you have persistent, genetically linked high blood pressure – here’s a breakthrough to keep an eye on: New minimally invasive procedure could help control high blood pressure

Speaking of blood pressure, though – check this out: Major Flaw In Blood Pressure Tests Could Be Giving Millions The Wrong Reading.

Now Two Personal Health Notes

The first is that Elaine and I will be putting liposomal NR and EGCG into our antiaging regimen.  Based on the article spied by BIC and sent along for review:  This Vitamin And Tea Combo May Quickly Rejuvenate Aging Brain Cells.  Nicotinamide Ribocide is an OTC and the EGCG is found in green tea.

The “hip shot” here is making sure we’re testing liposomal NR because when taken normal oral route, too much breakdown in the stomach so little uptake…

Meanwhile the evidence on lithium orotate keeps mounting.  Think I mentioned Could lithium hold the key to treating Alzheimer’s disease?.  This ain’t medical advice – need me to quack?

Does It All Work?  Story Time

Wednesday afternoon, I finished one of my three heavy workouts for the week—2.7 hours of hedge trimming, mowing three acres on the rider at NASCAR speeds, and trimming 400 feet of fence line—in what passes for a Texas sauna: 88°F and 71% humidity.”Feels like” was over 100F.  I wasn’t chasing a personal record, just getting the ranch squared away, but I did some data logging because old men can’t be too careful.

After the mower wash-down?  BP was (Sys) (Dya) *(HR)

3:10 PM: 115  65  125
3:12:30 PM: 106  67  108
3:15 PM:  122  64  100

At 15 minutes in, 3:25 PM, I checked: 127/65, heart rate 96. That’s the kind of recovery you feel in your bones—lungs quiet down, brain clears, and the mower sounds less like a dragon and more like a tool. The fishing shirt still drips. Mower’s outside drying off, I’m inside, a pound or two lighter for the sweat but also trying to dry off – we’d had a hard ride.

Here’s the comparison that made me grin: when I leafed through the old physiology standards—the kind of tables a doc would have quoted in February 1949—the “average” older male doing heavy work ran a post-effort pulse in the 135–150 range and took 15–20 minutes to drift under 100. Systolic often spiked 150–160+. I’d just run hotter weather, heavier humidity, and still clocked lower peaks with a much faster coast-down. Call it clean living, call it stubborn farm chores, call it the daily practice of doing the work anyway—but the numbers don’t lie. Is it all that anti-aging regimen stuff I natter on about? Not looking the gift horse in the mouth, on this.

I’m not pretending I’m 25. I am sharing that I out did the born-in-1949 averages with a little discipline, some real-world labor, and a willingness to sweat. The reward isn’t vanity; it’s capacity. When the grass is high and the fence line is shaggy, capacity is what gets the job done.

In my “executive years” I believe I went 36-years without breaking a sweat. Out here? Can’t go even a day without one – often several.

Note to self: keep logging these sessions. The ranch doesn’t care how old the calendar says I am, and apparently my heart doesn’t mind much, either.

You don’t do hard work like this without shading your risks. I do take a baby aspirin, some beet root and L-arginine plus preload on water when there’s Big Work. I’m may be OK fit, but I’m not stupid.

Still, an early snap from today…

Write when you get rich,

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