Want to begin with a “hard number”? Sure, we can do that:
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in February, seasonally adjusted, the
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in January
and 0.5 percent in December 2024. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the index for final
demand advanced 3.2 percent for the 12 months ended in February.
In February, a 0.3-percent increase in prices for final demand goods offset a 0.2-percent decline
in the index for final demand services.
The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 0.2 percent in
February after rising 0.3 percent in January. For the 12 months ended in February, prices for final
demand less foods, energy, and trade services advanced 3.3 percent.
Want a picture to go along with that? How’s this?
Dow dropped 100 and the S&P fell 20 after the data drop.
Other Pictures are useful, too. Like the New Unemployment filings. Not quite “lines around the block” despite all the buzz and slamming about DOGE:
In terms of where “the hits just keep on coming?”
Overall, we have to judge that America is still here, ready for another workday. After that? Well, that depends (like in pool) “How you’ve set up your next shot.”
See, not enough people have played enough pool (or billiards) to appreciate that where you “leave” every shot matters. The Amateur pool hustler tries to make every shot. Fine. But, the really dangerous Pros not only master most of the shots, but they leave the cue ball in the worst possible position for their opponent if their shot doesn’t drop.
And so, every morning with coffee, spending a few minutes applying “pool strategy” to the day is a nice way to begin Thursdays. You have today and tomorrow to set up your “weekend’s big shots.” [Weekend;’s being, as we like to point out, when we “Get to work for ourselves, not The Man so much…”]
Markets Trying to Turn?
Not after the PPI numbers and unemployment data. But, it’s still the numbers at the close that matter, so we will keep an eye on that.
For now, our Ebbinghaus-based view of multiple moving averages (to help conceptualize how people forget recent losses).
So, we have had a major 1 down (in the NASDAQ), a major 2 up, and we MAY (which I mentioned on PN a week ago) be ready for a major 4 rally. And then (to help Big Al along from Comments overnight) then we may see a washout down to the next lower support line (the long0term trend) which could finish this series of declines and set up a possible macro 5 up that could persist into next year – and beyond.
By the way, I mentioned how people have an “internal timer – the Ebbinghaus forgetfulness curve – as a herd behavior. But, having been a sales guru for much of my corporate life, it’s worth knowing that there was a “selling system” in the late 1960’s called the Sandler Selling System. Consider if this drives market behavior:
“Key Concept: “Feel Their Pain”
The Sandler method uses a psychological approach where salespeople guide prospects into identifying and verbalizing their pain—essentially, getting them to acknowledge their own needs and discomforts before presenting a solution. This lowers resistance because the prospect feels like they are leading the conversation, rather than being “sold” something.
Core Principles of the Sandler Selling System
-
- Pain-Based Selling – The salesperson asks strategic questions to uncover the prospect’s problems and make them emotionally engaged.
- Reversing the Traditional Sales Model – Instead of presenting and persuading right away, the salesperson listens first, lets the prospect express their needs, and then provides a tailored solution.
- The Up-Front Contract – Establishing clear expectations for both parties early in the conversation, preventing misunderstandings or wasted time.
- Disqualifying Instead of Hard-Selling – Sandler teaches salespeople to qualify prospects rigorously, ensuring that only genuinely interested and capable buyers move forward in the process.
- “The Prospect Owns the Problem” – Instead of pushing a solution, the salesperson helps the prospect see that their current situation is untenable, leading them to want the change.
My own rudimentary thinking on this, which I’ve never modeled for completeness, suggests one reason markets tend to hit lows in the 5th-15th area is that Monthly Statements go out (or post online) a day or two after the first. People then (touching pleasure or pain centers) then try to (set up their next shot) to get less pain and more joy the following month.
Now you’re back to wondering how much of the “herd” is on fentanyl and should just stop over-thinking and over-trading…
Naked News
Trying to focus on coverage of actual events more recently. Too damn much opinion in the MSM and most of it totally off-base or under-thought. So with something of an Event filter on…
Peace Talks Backdrop: Putin claims Russia ‘in final stages’ of taking Kursk – what it means for ceasefire talks.
SpaceX will attempt a rescue tomorrow: NASA, SpaceX Delay ISS Crew Launch — Here’s What Went Wrong
Will the Pope “run-out” before your rental to the movie Conclave dept. Pope Francis 12th anniversary of his papacy, hospitalized but with condition improving.
Predictable Crypto hype will follow as Bank of Russia Approves Crypto Trading for Select Investors. In Russia itself, however, using cryptocurrencies as a form of payment for goods and services within the country is prohibited, comrade. Meanwhile, here in the former Socialist States of America, BTC was trading $82,894.85 in the Worker’s Paradise.
And in the lingering twilight of socialism, Deep Staters may be about to receive a “free education” Is this the beginning of the end for the Department of Education?
No. You shouldn’t be surprised when an (Obama appointed) judge rules against Trump:” “Judge blocks key provisions of Trump’s bid to punish Democratic-linked law firm”
And, our next fight on today’s card: EPA seeks to strike down ‘holy grail’ of climate change rules.
Obviously Wrong, Dept.
Um, maybe he’s just working his Tax Code the way you worked ours Dept? Trump says Ireland cheats the US as its leader joins him to celebrate St. Patrick’s Day.
How living next door to a Party House, how neighborhood policies result: Egypt welcomes Trump’s comments about not expelling Palestinians from Gaza.
At the Ranch: A Woo Tale
Sent one of my odd dreams to a couple of ex mil buds.
Ure’s ongoing Dream Log Marcyh 12, 2025
As I became aware that a dream was underway, I did a look around. I discovered I was in an airport. But it was a very unusual one; there was a civilian side (which is where I was standing when the dream began) and there was a government/military side. Like I imagined Tucson might be – a civilian side and an ANG side…
Presently, a “guide voice” spoke to me. “You are here for an important meeting. You will need to go out the double-glass doors onto the government side. You will be led from there…”
Opening the right-hand door and stepping into a large (hangar-like area which was very well-lit) I noticed there was an “entry mat” on the floor. On it was a large (18-inch square?) military or country-flag symbol. The mat itself was big – maybe 3-feet by 4 or 5 feet. The military or country logo on the mat was mainly yellow and red with some blue borders, maybe one of two other colors. I made a mental note to try and run it down with AI to see what it might be.
AI rendered it this way
I walked ahead (thinking “My, ain’t this odd?” and a nondescript woman came along on my right and said “follow me…”
We proceeded ahead and left (of the plane in the picture) and came to what can only be called a “field office:” set up in the hangar.
I was taken over to a ”security desk” where a woman told me that my clearance from my teenage years was “being updated” I would have a new op-sign and mine would be “Dopey.”
“Huh? Me?”
“Well, yes, you. All the ops are done using Disney op names for security. Keeps the system clean.
Follow those two women over to the snack area and get something to eat and drink and I’ll get your update ready. You remember your last one was what, 24-30 pages long with all the questions? Should be quicker now…things change less than you might think with people….”
I fell in behind two Black woman, both in jeans and both wearing green chenille or velour green tops. Kinda like Star Trek tops. They were talking and one said to the other:
“…yeah, I think they pick people like us because we work in housekeeping and janitorial roles so well, no one really gives us a second look. But I also heard that we are gifted and have talents so the way this works is this: There is a big government remote viewing program, but because all the Big Powers do it, they are now using “disposable perception portals…” – and that’s what they call us. Perception Portals. That way, a high-end government operator can task us in dreams to go out and look at things. That way, if we are intercepted by another operation, there’s no track-back to the government’s main deep program. I think it’s like being psychic “cut-outs…”
SOLVED!
By a headline of the NY Post this morning (just over 24-hours after the email).
NY Post headlined this AM: Dopey Disney – Disney ‘doesn’t know what to do’ with outspoken star Rachel Zegler
Goofy, huh? But that’s sometimes how (trying to grapple with Future) how concepts go into the blender and come out all whichy-way. Except how they went in…
Oh, and the “Men Who Look at Goats” doctor IRL tells me, perception portals don’t work and I don’t want that clearance renewed…. (whew!)
Bumpin Toward Sunset
Spring is springin’ out here in East Texas. Fuel run today – power equipment time is here. Hoo-rah! A side of Wes Montgomery with that?
We will be restocking from winter propane use – mostly in the generator this winter from multiple outages. Yes, electric start is the only way to have a gennie.
Stocking up will come before propane is turned into a “controlled substance” by the climate mob. Unless they got up a lot earlier than me…
Also on the morning playlist around here: Eric Johnson’s “Trademark.” and here’s a bit of classic Frank to make the woke crowd crazy!
There, my work is done for the day. Let’s see if I can take Friday off, huh?
Write when you get rich,
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