TL;DR: Yes, Before Wars, runups in markets are not uncommon.  General news flow is lame except for courts as GovDown crawls along.  And some changes in our “solar thinking” to ponder.

Rally Dandy?

I won’t kid you – on the personal financial statement this has been a dandy past couple of months.  Well, except for the fact that all of our gains are “unrealized” which cuts both ways.  If you don’t cash-in and pocket your gains, you don’t have any more to spend.  On the other hand, you also don’t have to come out of pocket for income taxes, either.  Like I said – there’s a balance in there.

Our problem?  Ever since I wrote the book Downsizing, we have been quite changed in our thinking.  You may remember wife Elaine is a one-time disco diva and will, from time to time, mention how cool it would be if “the club scene” was still alive.  Of course, it IS but it ISN’T.  Clubbing has become more about social affinity action groupings (me-too mosh pits) rather than wide-ranging oat sowing adventure outings, if that makes sense.

77 in sight on the horizon, Elaine doesn’t even talk about 83, but we do have the ongoing discussion “What’s our next adventure?”  It’s getting tough to beat the home picks: shooting sports, gardening, and ham radio. Especially on a reasonable patch of dirt off in the woods.

Back to point:  We can see the world sliding to a place (riffing on the Weimar) to where you can afford anything but there’s not any point to it.  How long can you eat filet before you’re sick of it?

Whether you have six-figures of unrealized gains or seven?  No point paying tax on anything if there’s no real point to additional money to spend on….what?

Markets Aren’t Hearing Us

The big problem?  When will “it all blow up?”  Soon?  “To the Way-Back machine, Sherman!” As Mr. peabody used to exclaim.

History’s rhyme with markets and war is surprisingly consistent: optimism precedes conflict.
Before both World Wars, equities showed what looked like a normal bull phase—part confidence, part denial.  When there are two (and a half if you count Taiwan) wars looming, we get…what’s the word? “Discomfortable.”

Pre–World War I

From roughly 1911 through mid-1914, the major European exchanges and New York’s market traded higher.  Industrial output, colonial expansion, and credit growth fed a speculative glow. Investors assumed that diplomacy and trade were stronger than nationalism. The mood was confident – since we were not on what would become the land of trench warfare in short order.

Only in July 1914—weeks before the shooting started—did panic selling hit, forcing most exchanges to shut for months. The U.S. market fell sharply after reopening but recovered quickly once war demand mobilized factories.

Pre–World War II

Through most of the 1930s the Dow and European indexes climbed off Depression lows. We had a long ways to climb – the Depression about did us in.  Socialism made a run then, too.

By 1936-37, equities had rallied more than 100 % from 1932’s bottom. Doubles are great when they happen – but no one waves the checked flag at the start, right?  That optimism broke in 1937’s recession, but even then, few priced in global conflict.  That was the echo depression, some called it.  And the same thing – echo depression fear – came along after WW II, as well.  One reason for the Korean War was to keep growth more even and prevent all war materiel factory closings from swamping the ability of the country to adapt.

When Germany invaded Poland in 1939, markets dipped briefly, then stabilized and advanced once war production began. The pattern: disbelief first, then profits on rearmament. But it didn’t happen overnight. The darkest days of 1942-43 really were down to anfassen und loslegen, verstehen? 

The Pattern That Matters

Wars rarely begin from despair—they erupt out of bubbles of confidence and mis-pricing of risk.
Capital markets tend to front-run the expansion phase of military spending, not the moral cost of it.
In short: before the cannons, the tickers usually hum.

What was that instruction?  Oh, yes.  “I lift mine eyes to the horizon for from there shall come…”  (something).

Thursday Horizon Check

Financial burners?  Still on medium-high.  Futures were up a hundred on the Dow.  Gold was tinkering with $4300 from fifty bucks lower overnight. Silver seems to like $52, so the $60 level could be along.

Bitcoin?  October 7 we traded over $124k but this morning it’s working to hold $111k and the overnight low was down under $110.5 k.

We don’t know what to make of that –

• Could be a Wave 1 set up ahead of a run to the $130k range in a week, or less.
• But it could mean insiders know something is coming.  (We’ve held off on a vacation to Tehran for now.)
• OR it could just be people (besides us) have figured out that anyone can “make up secret numbers” and piss away fortunes on energy along the way.  All pointless and of no enduring value.  Gotta ask: Would a secret number from Biblical times mean anything in today’s world?  All depends on the other (bigger) waste involved in crypto – the marketing cons.

We could be wrong (though not terribly likely). I mean only here in the reincarnate Weimar II could you read a headline like Paxos Clarifies No Security Breach After $300 Trillion PayPal USD Minting Glitch.  We’ve blocked out a few hours of thinking time to pencil “How big a wheel barrow would it take to load in all the world’s made-up silly money?”  Could we get it all on a single sd card?

War and Lunatic Check

No shortages here.

Cause: Russian barrage causes blackouts in Ukraine as Zelenskyy seeks Trump’s help 

And Effect: Ukraine plan to ‘go offensive’ on agenda of Trump-Zelenskyy meeting.

And the FTM (follow-the-money): Pete Hegseth, defense secretary, calls on NATO allies to purchase more U.S. weapons for Ukraine.  Like Russian can’t think past that?  Hello?  Anyone home?  McFly?

Earth Earth controversy swirls: China blames US for global panic over rare earths controls BUT it is a real problem – and China’s likely just “testing out a new choker collar” on us.

And we play that game, too.  Take Venezuela, for example:  Trump approves CIA operations in Venezuela: What we know, and what’s next.  Lemme guess: someone dies?

And despite being quiet for a sec, Gaza is still a bed of hot coals: Trump and Israel warn of renewed fighting in Gaza if Hamas does not respect ceasefire deal.

The upcoming Israeli attack on Iran we’re expecting?  Not until the first week or November, maybe?  The longer Israel puts it off, the better positioned the Iranian air defenses will be.  This is a crap-storm on the horizon, for sure, we figure. Ticktock.

Paying for Our Enemies?

Yes, it’s a crazy notion.  But as we have written extensively, America has become the land of Synthetic Growth.  Open the Borders and all of a sudden there’s an employment boom   Teachers for ESL, social workers for the victims all over the place more cops and loading up on ICE agents?  Yeah, as much an economic swindle as a migration problem as we figure it.  (Hmm. No one asked, now that you mention it.)

And now?  Trump may be able to change it:

Rep. Jim Jordan on X: “Great news! Also, Chuck Schumer could open the government RIGHT NOW. Still, slow-learners are, well….slow to learn?  Democrats Again Vote to Keep Government Closed as They Blame GOP for Government Being Closed [WATCH].

But we’re not holding our breath – nice idea, but what would we do with all the peace, tranquility, and time off?  We still have the “Where are the good clubs, fine jazz, and safe places, anymore?”

Around the Ranch:  Mr. Solar Evolves

We still don’t have any meaningful rain in the forecast around here.  And it’s been a dandy fall so far with lots of sun. For us that means lots of power to sell back to the grid from JMr. Ure’s dandy personal solar farm:

The age of solar may be ending – at least for a while.  We note that a lot of current tax rules on writing it off will expire at the end of this year.  What’s more without the “made up climate industry” and the Bidenistas demonizing BBQ grill fuel and the like, solar may become just another alternative source.

Which brings me to the point.  Vevor.com which brings in a lot of goods from China had a deal this week for a 500 watt 24 volt wind machine for $116 includi9ng shipping.  I got two fox them.

Don’t know how long they will last but the point is they give me some source for if the lights ever go out.  Been reading up on Nuclear Winter again and it strikes me that we have some exposure by reliably only on propane and solar for fuel.  Granted one kilowatt of wind is not a lot, but it could keep on the lights.  (*They also have an 800 watt 12 volt in the same price range, but I wanted more power and these may go up on the ham radio antenna tower because I’m spending more time on wire arrays than aluminum overcast lately, if you follow.

The one screw job that will be back in force?  Utilities are now paying producers like me less than half of the going commercial rate charged customers.  There’s a screwy “transportation cost” accounting scam involved.  But point is?  Even though we are now selling on a typical day 10-13 kilowatts of power back to the grid, it only take a buck off the bill.

The only way to win is to run loads (liker washert and dryer) during the day to offset the high priced power we buy with the “free” stuff we make.

But solar seems to us to be headed off over the horizon.  Another made-up industry fading?

If you’re new around here, check out the Visitor Center.  And the Library.

Write when you get rich,

[email protected]  who gets  5.4 cents per kwh on the sell side but pays over 11 on the buy side.  Me? Bitter? Um…