$100 Silver nearly landed overnight – stopped 60-cents shy on the futures.  But that doesn’t end the hard assets war.  In fact, $5,000 gold and $100 silver seem almost a “lock” at this point.  But, we don’t offer this as “advice.”  It’s in the news category.

Since We’re on Financials…

Early market futures were down.  To our (idiotic, challenged) way of thinking, you can almost envision an Elliott wave 1 down, and from the Tuesday (interim lows where we exited a short position) the market has managed a solid rally.  Which looks suspiciously to us like an Elliott 2 rally.

Thing is?  Rallies often (never say always) have an a-b-c structure to them.  A hard A-wave may be doing a small B-wave today.  But we don’t plan to short over the weekend, though it’s tempting just on news flow.

Two biggies might drive a “shorts running” hard rally Monday.  We have next Tuesday’s Case Shiller Housing data ahead.  With inflation percolating right along, real estate is still sparkly.  The other “Buy the Rumor” potential is with the Fed rate decision next week. Meeting this coming Tuesday and the announcement after lunch Wednesday.

For now, the overwhelming expectation is “No Change” but $5,000 gold and/or $100 silver, might lead the Chairman’s remarks to end hopes of the Bigs and Techies for another rate hike.  The era of the middle-class, underwriting the IPOs of the “Richie Rich” types, could be at hand.

So Here’s the Deal

Personal Income data rolled Thursday.  Yes, it’s October/November—shutdown delays mean we’re still unwinding the data backlog.

“Personal income increased $30.6 billion (0.1 percent at a monthly rate) in October, followed by an increase of $80.0 billion (0.3 percent) in November, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $12.0 billion (0.1 percent) in October, followed by an increase of $63.7 billion (0.3 percent). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $98.6 billion (0.5 percent), followed by an increase of $108.7 billion (0.5 percent).”

A little too “press-releasey” for us, too.  The problem is apparent when we pixelate it:

That trend line is a HUGE problem for both parties. Republicans (because Developers over-sell) and Democrats because they do things like block Epstein file release.

Oh, missed that one did you? Tipster of the Year Ray snagged Rep. Anna Paulina Luna on X: “Everyone is frustrated because they want to see the Epstein files and I do too, but here are the facts: As of today, the DOJ has completed a review of over 5 million documents, conducted by over 500 attorneys, and they are ready to be released NOW. However, Obama appointed Judge Paul Engelmayer has ordered a SECOND review of those documents and is now requiring certification of those documents by U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton, while simultaneously blocking the appointment of a special counsel. This is causing MAJOR delays.”

A little off our “green eyeshades” circuit, but we can’t get too worked-up over today’s corporate profits report.  We’re not a corporation, and odds are you ain’t either!  Meaning it won’t be a bump from hamburger to mignons, right?

Bongino Back???

Yeah, I know, I thought he was…. He’s BACK.  This is not unexpected since on December 17, 2025, Bongino announced on Twitter/X that he would leave his post in January 2026; he officially left his position on January 3.  (We’d bet R&R right now while the personal energy reloads.)

What will be interesting is his take on the slime pit in D.C. and how it squares (if it can) with the Constitution.

Another Ray Find!

This was fascinating as well:  Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH® on X: “BREAKING: American Academy of Pediatrics Hit With Federal RICO Lawsuit for Vaccine Safety Fraud AAP accused of operating a decades-long racketeering scheme that deceived America about vaccine safety for maximum profit.

Which has been a (wink-wink, nudge-nudge) for a long time.  But if accurate, we might see a lineup of class actions… This isn’t ‘politics’ so much as credibility risk—when institutions wobble, markets demand a higher risk premium.

WARS: Past and Future

Following the dipshits of Davos this week, (which gives me a flashback to the ancient Burlington-Northern Empire Builder trains as a kid) we can refocus on bodies piling up.

As the (endless) war in eastern Europe continues, US, Ukrainian and Russian negotiators head to Abu Dhabi for talks on Ukraine war.  At some point, one side will run out of bodies to throw into the fracas.

But now pay attention to how internal dissent in Iran has the Developer in Chief riled up: Toll in Iran’s protest crackdown reaches at least 5,002 dead as Trump says US ‘armada’ approaching.  For me it’s a race.  Will I turn 77 before, or after, the Iran War.

Around the Ranch: Storm Bracing

I mentioned a few things about the upcoming BWS (big winter storm) that was brewing up.  Here in Texas it could get bad. Dallas-Fort Worth preparing for snow, ice as forecast upgraded to winter storm warning.

In our back yard (though still some wiggle-room to it):

Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Ice accumulations
between one quarter of an inch and one half of an inch. Isolated
amounts up to three quarters of an inch can’t be ruled out, mainly
in eastern Central Texas. In addition, sleet and snow
accumulations up to one inch are also possible.

Elaine and I worked out our “final pre-storm task lists” for today over wine last night.

I’ll be heading to the fuel distributor to top-off the propane jugs and a bit more fresh gasoline.  And on return, picking up eggs (and maybe apple turnovers) on the way back.  Then double-checking and topping off vehicle antifreeze. After that, I will pre-build a fire in the outdoor fireplace – again, just in case.  Check of the 2-meter ham radio walkies, too.

Elaine’s hauling in the ‘freezeables’—bleach starts to slush around the high teens, red wine in the teens/20-ish, and the soaps/detergents turn to gel once you flirt with freezing. The point isn’t science—it’s avoiding busted jugs and weird clumpy messes.

White wines, with their lower alcohol content, tend to freeze in the 25-31F range.  But wait!  Isn’t that a dinner plan? “A case of Champagne to test, Garcón!”

The other “usual suspects” on the list are done.  Faucets, ran the generator for a half-hour Thursday.  The house is nice and toasty (for now) as we do “thermal banking”.  Never heard of it? New to the Outback?

Short Course on Home “Pre-Heating”

What this is, in plain terms:

• When you raise the thermostat a few degrees before a cold snap or outage risk, you’re not just warming the air.  (You’re making the electric company rich!)

• You’re also warming the mass: drywall, framing, floors, furniture, books, even the crawlspace air and floor system.

• When the power drops, that stored heat leaks back out slowly, so indoor temps fall much more gradually.

Why it works

• Air has very little heat capacity. You can heat the air fast, but it cools fast.

• Stuff has lots of heat capacity. Warm “stuff” gives up heat slowly, smoothing temperature swings.

• Also, a warmer house means a bigger “buffer” above the uncomfortable range.

How to do it effectively

• Bump 2–4°F several hours ahead of the coldest period (or before you expect trouble).

• Do it earlier rather than later so the heat has time to soak into materials (floors/walls lag).

• If you have ceiling fans, run them on low to reduce hot/cold layering (more comfort, better heat distribution).

When it matters most

• Short outages (the 2–4 hour kind – we have great local utility crews) in very cold weather, especially with electric heat. (Gulp…us!)

• Homes with a crawlspace or slab can benefit because you’re also warming the under-structure a bit, which reduces the “cold sink” effect on floors.  We have a crawlspace. It’s been sealed to keep residual banked heat in…

• BUT:  We are already warming the “normal colder rooms” – the guest bathroom and the pantry building.  There, thermal banking makes sense, to us.

Common mistake

• Overdoing it right before an outage: you mainly heat air, not mass. The “banking” effect comes from time + mass, not a last-minute blast.

• Not having a backup heating plan.  We have a 30,000 BTU ventless propane that will augment when we get to 20F on the way down and it will go back to off over freezing.  CO detectors and batteries, of course.

Meal Planning

• We aim for hearty comfort food.  50-50 carb/protein.  Semi gluten-free.
• “Flex Meals” are favored.  Flex because you can do solid meals (like tacos)
  • On the stovetop
  • On the BBQ with a cast iron grill of sacrificial fry pan.
• We also have “One Pot” meals like:
  • Chicken-noodles that can even be done on the wood stove.  Boil water, drain, toss in a gluten-free mushroom soup, a can or three of chicken breast meat, can of peas or two…dash of mayo, garlic, cayenne, Worcestershire sauce.  (I get hungry just thinking about it).
  • Soups of good and even a semi-edible can of clam chowder “helped along” with bacon bits, a quarter of an onion diced fine and sauteed in the pan and 2-4 cans of additional clams.  Served with camp bread off the stovetop.  No chance of going hungry.
• Get meds in advance, stagger orders from Amazon to make it easier on the Postal, UPS, and FedEx crews.
• Make sure your Starlink has its defroster on though this will eat more power.

The Peoplenomics.com report tomorrow will be mainly the ChartPack (which I can rough out after the close today while power is a sure thing).  And ShopTalk Sunday is pre-written and waiting for the server green light…

Over-planned?  Of course.  Too much time under sail and flying cross countries.  If you leave things “to chance” that’s the door calamity enters through…

Write when it warms up,

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