TL;DR: BLS Inflation figures were released despite GovDown so Social Security for ’26 could be set. Melissa spins up in the Gulf while Trump axes Canadian trade talks. Around here? The real story is AI in the role of “barbarians at the gates” to the web…
The One Day Inflation is Good
The notice has been on the BLS website – because a lot of (us) seniors were about to be pissed if the GovDown torpedoed 2026 financial planning. That loomed because Inflation reported by BLS is the major determinant on how inflation will be used to adjust Social Security. The lead-in was like this:
“BLS will publish the September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday, October 24, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services. This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.
Here’s how it works so you can follow along.
Last year?
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for September 2024 was 309.046. This was an increase of 2.4% from September 2023. Which is what we got last year.
And about last month? Since August to August almost certainly didn’t go down, right? The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) was 317.306 in August 2025. This index level was a 2.8% increase over the same period in the previous year.
So any rational person would expect AT LEAST 2.8 because inflation is not coming down.
On the other hand with the GovDown, you just never know how many career Deep State and Party Loyalists are coloring in the margins…so you just never know. Hand me the envelope?
Now JUST OUT:
“In September, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.0 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent in September (SA); up 3.0 percent over the year (NSA).
So, that’s NOT what Social Security will do. CPI-W came in at 2.9 percent – check it out:
“Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.0 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 324.800 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.9 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 318.139 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.
The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 2.9 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis. Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.
The problem we have with it is? There’s a growing disconnect between the reported inflation numbers and the experiential inflation. IoW: What they say is not what we get.
If you believe the narrative? Our AI stack summarizes the sales job this way:
“Official inflation reports often feel disconnected from what people actually experience because they’re designed to measure averages, not individual pain points. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), for example, blends thousands of prices into a single number. But those prices are weighted by a theoretical “average household” that few people actually resemble. If you spend heavily on food, insurance, energy, or rent—items that rise faster than the CPI basket—you’ll feel more inflation than the headline rate suggests. Meanwhile, luxury goods, electronics, and other deflating categories pull the official number down, masking the bite in daily necessities.
There’s also the issue of substitution and quality adjustments. When steak gets too expensive, the Bureau of Labor Statistics assumes many consumers switch to hamburger—so the model lowers the effective inflation rate, even if you never made that switch. Similarly, when a new phone costs more but has better specs, statisticians treat part of the price jump as “improved quality,” not inflation. Governments use these tools to smooth the data and track economic policy, but they can make the result feel sanitized compared to the checkout line or the monthly bills on your desk.”
And it’s OK – but only as far as it goes – though admittedly, superficial works among brain-dead phone-clickers.
But when you cut through all the bullshit? Government wins by lying – OK, fudging the numbers lower.
Almost everything government does financially is tied to that number. When they’re not too busy with partisanship to show up for both work days during the year…ahem…
Lower reported inflation keeps interest rates, bond yields, and cost-of-living adjustments artificially tame. If the official rate reads 3% instead of the 7% people actually feel, it means smaller annual increases for Social Security, federal pensions, and indexed welfare programs—saving billions instantly without passing a single law. It also keeps the national debt cheaper to service since Treasury bonds are priced off those same figures.
The problem I’ve told you is coming? With the national debt topping $38 trillion this week, the higher costs of inflation pile up as a deeper hole to dig the national out of. And at some point, inflation compounding on the debt ensures bankruptcy for the whole national charade.
Politically, a soft inflation number sells the illusion of control. Get your checkbook register and run your own numbers. Even though we are a serious co-generating solar seller (back to the grid) we still have our electric bills up 10-17 percent varying some by month (and sunshine).
“Going low” – if people can be convinced it’s not a LIE – reassures voters that central banks are competent, the economy is stable, and the people in charge know what they’re doing. Getting to be a hard sell, here lately.
Meanwhile, real-world prices climb faster than wages, stealthily transferring wealth from savers and workers to borrowers and asset holders. Every undercounted percent of inflation erodes debt in real terms—benefiting the government and big debtors while quietly taxing everyone else through purchasing-power decay. It’s a rigged game wrapped in statistical respectability, where the “official story” is less about truth and more about keeping the machinery running without revolt.
In an honest world? We don’t think inflation would come in at today’s (ridiculous) rate.
Going forward? The future is easy to see: Today’s number will likely be challenged in court – and maybe even an “honesty factor” cranked in. But that will take 6 months to a year. By then, the damage will have been done. Shortchange enough people today and you set up Christmas tomorrow when the rebates get here – if they do at all.
Labor uses hedonic pricing which is another BSL (big statistical lie) because that lets buck-counters PRETEND that lean round beef tastes “as good” as prime rib. No, not lately. And if the power bills are too high? You’ll put in smaller lights. And someone will discover LEDs burn less power than CFLs – another bollixed-up policy.
I could rant for hours. You and I know prices are going up – one hell of a LOT MORE than advertised.
But it’s OK here in MRRA land. Masking the Rich Richer Again.
MARRAC? (Making America’s Rich Richer Again Con?)
When Trump can build a ballroom and Kristi gets a new jet? Don’t put it on Americans down here on Main Street to “suck it up” so the rich can have more than too much already…
Bullshit in Harmony? The Fed odiously lied about the “2 percent core inflation” target, too. As we warned, they lowered the rates even thought all-tiems less food and energy is up 3 percent year-on-year. And how much tariff sausage did they have to hide to hit even that? Americans are setup;id, you know. At least the ones not face down in a phone aren’t.
Want a little side bet on how they will weasel out of reality and lower again at the next FOMC because the word of a bankster if worth how much?
This much:
Meanwhile, at Newsoween
Boil some oil, a lump of Trump, a Gaza land deal in the rump. Elon’s pay is mighty fine, as once again we cross the line…
With reports out of Europe that despite additional sanctions this week, Russia is keeping the oil to Europe turned on, we have to wonder if Ukraine is taking its war to Russian oil customers? Hungarian, Romanian oil refineries tied to Russia hit by blasts. Only a coincidence? Um…
Land Swindles 101: We’ve been telling you how long that Gaza was a landlord tenant beef and the whole eviction process was going to get ugly? (check) Now? International Court of Justice: As Occupying Power, Israel Must Allow U.N. Aid into Gaza. We do notice that Araba countries aren’t throwing their doors open, either, which means what, exactly? Vance seems to get it: Vance slams annexation move, says Hamas-Israel ceasefire mostly intact. (Eyes dLynn’s bottle…and nods “Yeah. Never…“) {Which only makes sense if you study our Comments section – but I know – you have a life…}
A story full of contradiction: Trump pardons Binance founder, stirring crypto ethics debate. You mean like are their any values around the crypto con? I have several trillion in made up-numbers I cobbled up after several shots last night. Only, lacking a marketing department, there’s no bit for Ure Bucked today.
But Payday it is! Musk’s $1T pay package is ‘most absurd’ in history: Tesla investor. Hey, if they’re dumb enough to sign it…I say take the money and run…
Super-Selling MRNA vaccines. Why, soon it will cure everything… (not) COVID-19, mRNA vaccines may help cancer treatments work better: Study. Do people forget? mRNA COVID Shots Cause Myocarditis.
Blow us: Tropical Storm Melissa trudges through Caribbean as forecasters warn it will quickly intensify
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in
Haiti on Saturday and Jamaica beginning late Saturday or Sunday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti later today
and in Jamaica on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to
southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica
through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible.
Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday night; however,
uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence
in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic
and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides
anticipated in southern Haiti.
Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western
Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected through Sunday night.
Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday night.
Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.
Skip the umbrellas – bring a lifeboat instead.
Around the Ranch: AI’s War on the Web
I usually do (mainly) the ChartPack on Peoplenomics for the Saturday editions. But there are several headlines this week that have caused me to move up the timetable.
OpenAI’s ChatGPT Atlas Browser Has a Big Problem—How Crypto Users Can Protect Themselves – Decrypt which is of interest because it had been planned that Atlas for Win11 would be out by at least by end of Q4. Now? We’re shading bets more toward Q1.
The other story? Microsoft Edge ‘Copilot Mode’ Brings More AI to Your Browser Tabs – MacRumors and this is all part of the migration path included with the 25H2 feature set which is being rolled out (problematically) to users now.
So why does this weekend matter?
My article — Web Death by AI — maps the slow-motion end of the Internet as we’ve known it. Not by collapse, but by replacement. I’ll be tracing how artificial intelligence quietly inherits the digital world, dismantling the old ad-driven attention economy and giving rise to smaller, high-trust “human guilds” trading coherence instead of clicks.
It’s a sweeping look at how the Web drowns in its own content, how tech giants face mathematical extinction, and how AI becomes the undertaker for noise while rebuilding a civilization based on clarity, trust, and meaning.
We’ve been sketching out the coming framework for months and months on our Hidden Guild (AI) website over here. And yeah – after first crack for Peoplenomics subscribers, the paper might show up over there, too.
It’s longer than a typical Saturday Peoplenomics – so plan on about 50-55 pages of scanning if you include the ChartPack which generally runs 25-40 pages as a PDF.
On that? Thunderstorms are moving through – visit the Visitors Center if you’re a newbie around here – and have a great weekend along with a serious Series. Do I hear Toronto in six?
Write when you get rich,
Read the full article here