NGC is a “New Global Conflict.” And it’s a long-simmering mess along the LoC – Line of Control – separating the two quite different countries.
Oh, and both have nuclear weapons.
Background and Foreplay
India has shut off water supplies to a part of Pakistan. IntelliNews – India and Pakistan face-off following killing of 26 tourists as water politics comes into play. And not to be outdone, and rather predictably, low-level conflict is rising: India-Pakistan LOC News Today: Indian Army retaliates after firing by Pakistan along LoC in J&K, days after Pahalgam terror attack.
Now, can India really turn off the water? In a word, yes. Pahalgam attack: Will India suspending Indus Waters Treaty affect Pakistan? You may want to go back and watch a few 1950’s American West “cowboy films” about water rights (and sheep herders).
Of course, none of this should come as a surprise. My firmed G.A. Stewart has prominently covered what’s coming in his study of Nostradamus prophecies. Keep an eye on his site here – but it may take a bit of time since he’s up to his butt in work. In the meantime, reader JC has been tracking his work closely so his summary is worth a look here.
Money and Rads
Because of our “cash-colored glasses” we think it’s important to notice that markets were somewhat blind-sided by developments: Sensex, Nifty Today, Stock Market Down Today key reasons: Sensex crashes over 1,100 points; Nifty drops below 24,000-level.
Why? Well, let’s consider possible impacts from a ugly south Asian war:
Yes, an India-Pakistan conflict could escalate to nuclear war due to their mutual possession of nuclear arsenals and heightened tensions during a crisis. They don’t “play nice,”
Both nations have approximately 160-170 warheads each, with delivery systems capable of striking major cities. As I have mentioned in many past articles on the region, the US-Russia Cold War was blessed with “long delivery times” which left time for thoughtful consideration of consequences.
You see, it all comes down to some ugly facts of geography, proximity and missile capabilities. India and Pakistan share a 3,300-km (2,100-miles) border, with major cities like Lahore and Amritsar just 50 km (31-miles) apart. Ballistic missiles, like Pakistan’s Shaheen-II or India’s Agni-V, can reach targets in 5-10 minutes, leaving leaders with minimal time to assess threats, verify attacks, or coordinate responses. This compressed timeline heightens the risk of miscalculation or preemptive strikes, as decision-makers operate under intense pressure with incomplete information.
Ifg you’re old enough, you may remember the famous “rising moon” incident in the Cold War: that was a 1960 NORAD false alarm during the U.S.-Russia Cold War, when a radar system in Thule, Greenland, mistook a moonrise over Norway for a massive Soviet missile launch. On October 5, 1960, the radar detected what appeared to be dozens of incoming missiles, triggering a high alert at NORAD. The U.S. briefly prepared for a potential nuclear response, but the alert was quickly debunked when technicians realized the radar echoes were from the moon, not missiles.
Because of the damn geography, we don’t see that kind of breathing room in this conflict. Then it gets worse.
Doctrinal ambiguities—Pakistan’s potential first-use policy versus India’s no-first-use stance—could lead to miscalculation, especially under the fog of war (or rising tensions and telling people to return to their homelands) or if conventional losses threaten regime survival. A limited nuclear strike could rapidly spiral, as escalation control is uncertain given the lack of robust crisis communication and the intense rivalry fueling distrust.
No doubt that global powers like the U.S. and China could push for de-escalation, though their competing interests- in the midst of a Trade War – might complicate mediation. But then it gets worse.
Takeaway: Monitor for “Kindling Effects”
One war can lead to another. Attentions change, priorities shift, supplies rise and fall…
An India-Pakistan nuclear exchange could indirectly trigger escalations in Iran or Ukraine, potentially spiraling into a global war, though the pathway is complex and not guaranteed. The massive regional destabilization—millions dead, refugee crises, and economic shockwaves—could inflame tensions in the Middle East, where Iran, already at odds with Israel and the U.S., might exploit the chaos to advance its nuclear ambitions or regional influence, prompting preemptive strikes. Our early odds line figures under a headline grabber (of even a limited nuclear exchange) that Israel would move on Iran and from there? Well, again: It gets worse.
In Ukraine, Russia could seize the opportunity of global distraction to escalate its aggression, testing NATO’s resolve and risking direct confrontation. With the global powers – U.S., China, and Russia – drawn into these theaters due to strategic interests, miscalculations or alliance obligations could cascade, but the likelihood hinges on the extent of the India-Pakistan fallout and pre-existing regional flashpoints.
Ah, and that circles us back to our recent reminder that one of the upcoming keys to Urban Survival could easily be a couple of rechargeable Geiger counters.
The time it could takes for radiation from the sub-continent to reach the Continental United States (CONUS) depends on atmospheric transport and the scale of the exchange.
A limited exchange of 100-250 Hiroshima-sized warheads (15-100 kt) could loft 5-36 teragrams of black carbon (soot) into the stratosphere, carrying radioactive particles like iodine-131 and cesium-137. Stratospheric winds could transport this fallout globally within 1-2 weeks, with detectable radiation reaching CONUS via the jet stream in as little as 7-10 days, though significant concentrations might take 2-4 weeks.
The exact timeline will vary on detonation altitude, weather patterns, and soot volume, with higher-altitude bursts spreading faster. Most fallout would initially concentrate in South Asia, but long-lived isotopes could circulate globally, depositing via precipitation or dry settling.
The severity of radiation in CONUS would likely be minimal compared to South Asia but could still pose health risks.
Global models suggest fallout would be diluted over distance, with CONUS receiving low-dose rates (e.g.,
Still, remember our greenhouse building a year and a half back? Agricultural impacts from contaminated soil or water could disrupt food chains, though less severely than in Asia. The greater threat to CONUS would be indirect—global cooling of 1.25-6.5°C and 15-30% precipitation drops, causing crop failures and economic strain rather than acute radiation effects. Ends the climate scam, though…
Seems to us, the backbone to any serious plans for family survival keep coming back to counting rads, seeds, and total dissolved solids in an under cover hydroponic system augmented with plenty of sprouting seeds…
Cheerful start to a spring weekend, isn’t it?
Inside Trading?
Oh, to have been able to shadow-trade Pelosi, huh? Well, here we go again: Trump WH Giving Wall Street Insider Info On Trade Deals. But not exactly. This has a certain Eu d’ Bash to it, which comes with everything in Orange. Everyone knows the US is trying to rework deals with everyone because the national debt crisis is here and real.
Besides, what’s proveable? Trump Signals Step Back On China Tariffs, Says They’ll ‘Come Down Substantially’ and the reality leak is China Quietly Waives Some U.S. Tariffs, Importers Say. so, real report or a bash? You tell me…
While, in the meantime, the spidey-sense is considering a possible rally into the close Monday. Because Tuesday is “Anything Can Happen Day.” (*It used to be Guest Star Day, but that was when Annette was alive…)
Skip the Dallas Fed report Monday (sleep in) and go right to Trade data, the Housing report, and the Labor JOLTS report Tuesday. Want to place some “Buy the rumor – sell the news” bets?
And if you got sucked-in to buying BTC in February, you’re only down 10.6 percent. Oh, wise you, huh? At $94,206 early, we’re eyeing the clock wondering if there’s one born every minute…
Cynically Ure’s
Next time someone says Trump is a Man of Peace, remind them: Trump said poised to offer Saudi Arabia over $100 billion weapons package.
Does Putin fill the bill? No… In rare rebuke of Putin, Trump urges Russia to ‘STOP!’ after deadly attack on Kyiv. Russian general was whacked with a car bomb in Moscow. But despite this, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says Moscow on track to sign a Ukraine peace deal – UPI.com. Just no one has seen the deal sheet on it yet…whatever.
Must be some grist needed for a big fund raiser planned in Glendale, huh? Sen. Schiff Blasts President Trump’s Refusal to Recognize Armenian Genocide on its 110th Anniversary. Or, maybe it will be in Burbank to keep from being too obvious to the pander-watchers.
Oh, look – a Warshing machine! Kevin Warsh: the man who could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair. Will the Warshing machine be a May tag?
Then there’s the rumors of the coup (as I reach for my paranoia meds…): EMERGENCY REPORT: Active Pentagon Coup Against The Trump Administration & The American People Discovered. Meds or Maalox – always a tough late-week choice. BREAKING: O’Keefe Media reporting Nicolas Turza, Branch Chief, has RESIGNED from his position at the Pentagon after we caught him on hidden camera saying he will ‘resist Trump, everything he does.’.
Now to the Real Crazy
Lower Ed report: Princeton’s War on Civil Rights.
Darwin Awards nominee here: Solihull man discovers he has bought his own stolen car.
FBI is coming after judges? Ex-judge, wife into custody after claims of hosting Tren de Aragua member in Las Cruces. Gee, wonder if he was a democrat…ahem…
Meanwhile Scott Jennings on X: “? Federal judge has blocked President Trump’s efforts to require proof of citizenship to register to vote The objective is clear: nullify the election results and stall Trump until 2028. This is the REAL constitutional crisis. You think?
Hmm…running a bit long so how about we wrap with Passed the House: Gingrich on legislation that stops district judges. Trump wins. Dems wil block it, for sure…
Hysteria from the Brits? Trump has two weeks to save America from empty shelves…
Around the Ranch: The Earthbloom Problem
As you may guess, I have been doing a lot lately with my brain amplifiers. Between working on projects like the bloodborne oddities of South Florida – and coming up with a new specialty area of dentistry (microsurfacing for longer filling usability) I have also been AI modeling the world’s general future.
The overnight-into-this-morning’s data runs with the AI stack revealed a terrible Truth. The World (as we know it) has only about a 15 percent chance of surviving to 2050. Now, let’s think that through. Because with India-Pakistan on the verge of “lighting up” we all – humans – need to think about the urgent need to “get our shit together.”
The problem was first clearly articulated in 1976. Gerard K. O’Neill, a physicist whose 1976 book The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space (updated in the 1980s) discusses the urgent need for space colonization to address Earth’s resource limits.
“In The High Frontier (1976, updated 1980s), Gerard K. O’Neill presents a visionary yet pragmatic case for human colonization of space to address Earth’s looming resource constraints and population pressures. He argues that Earth’s finite materials and energy cannot sustain an expanding technological civilization indefinitely, proposing massive, self-sustaining space habitats—rotating cylindrical colonies at Lagrange points, built with lunar and asteroid resources—as the solution.
These “O’Neill cylinders,” powered by abundant solar energy and offering artificial gravity, could house millions, freeing humanity from terrestrial limits. O’Neill emphasizes urgency, suggesting that the technological and economic window to establish such colonies is narrow, as Earth’s resources could deplete to the point of making large-scale space ventures infeasible.
His calculations, rooted in 1970s engineering, show that space colonization is achievable with existing technology, offering a path to avert crises like energy shortages and environmental degradation, which resonate with the Peoplenomics “2045 Gauntlet” of risks (nuclear proliferation, climate, soil depletion) in your Earthbloom model.
O’Neill’s optimism is tempered by a call to action, warning that humanity must act swiftly to avoid being trapped on a resource-starved Earth—a concern echoed in your 15 percent survival odds by 2050. The book details practical steps, such as mining lunar regolith for construction and deploying solar power satellites to supply Earth’s energy needs, while addressing economic and political hurdles.
O’Neill envisions space colonies as interdisciplinary hubs, fostering innovation and reducing territorial conflicts by expanding humanity’s frontier, a potential counter to your 2045 Gauntlet’s racial division and nuclear risks. Critics noted challenges, like the untested scale of megastructures and social dynamics, but the book’s influence endures, inspiring space advocacy and aligning with your Earthbloom urgency to “get our shit together” before 2045. By synthesizing O’Neill’s vision with your AI-driven modeling, The High Frontier underscores the need for bold, systematic solutions to ensure humanity’s survival against compounding global threats.
As of today in our modeling activities overnight, the O’Neill lookahead turns out to have a time limit to it.
About 2045.
In fact, from the runs the odds of human survival run like this – and remember, this is as of today’s news flows,,,
-
-
- 2025: 90% (quarterly: 97%)
- 2030: 80% (quarterly: 95%)
- 2035: 65% (quarterly: 90%)
- 2040: 50% (quarterly: 85%)
- 2045: 30% (quarterly: 75%)
- 2050: 15% (quarterly: 60%)
-
It dawned on me that we can synthesize O’Neill and a huge number of composite (politically unpalatable to address) issues into what we (the AI and me) have labeled “the Gauntlet.”
No, the Earthbloom problem is not about an asteroid impact: NASA tracks ~34,000 NEOs as of April 2025, with ~2,500 classified as potentially hazardous (PHA) due to size (>140 meters) and proximity (
What will much more likely “get us?” Near-certainties. Like compound interest.
Because by 2045-205o that’s when everything hits the wall: nuclear proliferation, climate, soil depletion, racial division, envy violence, effects of compound interest blowing up finance, the real indisputable Peak Energy…all kinds of things. Drinkable water…
So the next several weeks on our Peoplenomics.com side ($40.year since 2000) will be devoted to this “Earthbloom” problem.
Need to good news? Right now there is about a 97 percent chance of the world surviving intact to September 1st. But the quarterly estimates compound. And over time – as we all know – compounding kills. Kills, air, soil, markets…everything. But it’s like high blood pressure…easy to ignore. Fatal in the end, but millions ignore it, anyway. Same thing with planetary-level issues. Earthbloom or Earthdoom promises to be interesting.
Be thinking about it: Earthbloom. Because as we will go into more detail next week, we don’t need to go doom-scrolling any more. Just looking at the data works fine. It’s a preconscious thing…for now.
Oh – and if you need more for the brain? There’s a new Paper on my collaborative AI website: Crafting Cognitive Symbiosis: A Comprehensive Recipe for Human-AI Collaborative Problem-Solving – Hidden Guild. Where we take some of the systematic thinking from a book I wrote in 2017 and apply it to “Where next?” Point is? AI may help generate the workable avoidance plans for the pending potential life-enders.. Enough for now…
Drop by Sunday – another free Million Dollar idea is being rolled out…
Write when you get rich and HAGWE! (have a good week-end)
Read the full article here