Is there a point, at which, markets can rise no further? A point where the “money coming out” of markets can’t be replaced by the number of new converts to the Church of Greater Fools?

For now, it’s an open speculation.

But one’s consideration of the “good times” ought to be tempered with some economic realities.

• First, and foremost, we reckon that last Thursday, Israel came within a whisker of taking out Iran’s nuclear projects with a mass bombing raid.  Whether that would have “gone nuclear” is above our pay grade, but it would explain the outburst of “work at night” from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.  We sensed a news leak, but it was well-covered as a Fed rate response.
• Since then, we have been in a bounce.  At the early Futures pricing today (7 AM), it looks like even Santa is tired from all the short-squeezing Monday.
• The host of coincident indicators?  Dow Theory fans will note the Transports are still down about 10 percent since Turkey Day.  Bitcoins were trading down into the $93,000s with the usual “dueling hype.”  Examples? Bitcoin Down 15% From Record High as Bearish Momentum Builds is countered somewhat in Bitcoin Price Analysis: Bulls Target $97K Amid Doji Formation.
• To us, however – being huge fans of Joe Granville’s work on long-term On-Balance Volume calculations – the most worrisome development is how the five-year view of the Dow appears to be rolling over with on-balance volume now faltering.

This is a screen snag from Yahoo Finance which is regularly updated here.

To which we would have to add our own work using an Aggregate Index.  Which assumes that back in 1999 you had a pile of money, cut it three ways, and then tossed it into the Dow, the S&P, and the NASDAQ.

To us, one way to look at this is the “Big Run (to the upside) may be over” and – IF that is the case, then a Wave 1 down came to the yellow trend line (and slightly under).  Which would put us into a bounce, and from here, within a week or three we could be at the next levels down in Elliott.

I spend (never long enough) on the phone with G.A. Stewart (his site is here) as he’s the world’s foremost thinker on Nostradamus.  I’m trying to get a bead on how we get to nuclear war this coming summer, but one way would be a major five waves down now – into the early days of Trump – and then a major wave 2 rally up into “Sell in May and go Away.”  Which would then clear the decks for the utter collapse with nukes in the summer or financial implosion in the fall.

Where’s the “blind side” in all this?

Good question. But, one guess would be that we have built (the current civilization new spin on Tower of Babel) entirely on electricity.  This is not to say electrics won’t work, though EMP is a real risk.  Rather, it’s that the nationwide (and global) interties that make “magic happen” could be doused.  Dragging anchors and other attacks on undersea cables could turn into a real nightmare.

How do you get groceries in a world where electricity won’t let your bank transactions clear?  How do you order up supplies to re-fill a warehouse or distribution center?  How do traffic flow systems work? How to trains switch…there are layered dependencies (all taken mostly for-granted) at every turn.  That’s a tough one.

Enough, for now. But there’s plenty to consider, ponder possible problems and then cobble up “can’t lose no matter what” solutions.

As we have been writing for more than a quarter century here, a good life isn’t one that is totally optimized and monetized.  Instead, it’s the path that can’t lose.  Winners?  Usually there’s only one, or at least very few.  Non-losers?  Much lower bar and easier to nail.

Headlines on Parade

While sitting around (with a 9 mm on my lap, waiting for a clatter on the rooftop to break up), these may instill insights into the odds of long-term planetary evolution:

Sinking feelings: Russian cargo ship explodes and sinks in Mediterranean Sea.  Even being “attached to land” doesn’t always help, either: Santa Cruz Pier Collapses Taking Several People With It, Two Rescued From The Sea. And if your “sinking feelings” are of a more personal nature, might we point out  57 Things People Romanticize That Are Actually Pretty Awful?

Something up her sleeve?   Lara Trump removes herself from consideration for Rubio’s Senate seat.  But, here’s the thing:  A Senate gig would be nice. And 50-years of news-sniffing says people usually act in their own beneficial self-interests.  So, what would be more “cush” than the Rubio chair?  Or, is the chair being cleared as an L-Z? Matt Gaetz May Run for Senate, Replace Rubio.

Ukraine war, nukes in Cuba, sure, Russia gets a lot of shit wrong. But once in a while? A winner: Russia to introduce language tests for children of migrants.  (We like to see liberal reader’s heads explode, now and then…)

We apparently aren’t the only ones who see crypto mining as a collosal waste of energy sources that could be used more productively elsewhere: Multiple Russian regions ban crypto mining.

And about that unhackable cryptos claim? Japan, US blame North Koreans for $300 million crypto theft.  Why, if this wasn’t a near-holy day, I’d point out the farcical digi-turd problem again for those who can’t do sums.

It wasn’t Harriet Potter, now, was it? J.K. Rowling Leads Backlash Against Sturgeon for Claiming There Was No Public Opposition to Gender Self-ID Until “Forces Muscled In”.

AOC keeps sounding like “Another Old Commie” as we review AOC Handler Allegedly Attacks Journalist Asking Hard-Hitting Questions about Illegals.  Let’s move her to McAllen. or Caracas; show of hands?  Meanwhile, keep an eye on AOC AOC Denies Rumors She Is Pregnant: ‘Had a Lot of Food at Thanksgiving’

One more, while we’re at it: Rep. Ayanna Pressley praises Biden for death-sentence commutations.  We prefer murderers dead, thank you.  (The world is full of slow learners, we figure.)

Then there’s this from our “don’t let the door slap your ass on the way out” file:  Drag shows, Arabic Sesame Street, lonely rats: How Biden spent $1 TRILLION on ‘government waste’.

At the Ranch: Looking Back Christmas

You may not be a regular reader of our “Comments” section.  But often, the material there is better than what I manage to scrounge up off the wires and the public spew-flow.

Take for example, this note from reader Larry who wrote:

“Let me think about this, you actually met Louis L’Amour? And visited with him? What an interesting time that must have been.”

It was! And one of many grand moments in Life.  So I penned a more lengthy reply than usual which really fits with the pensive, reflective, mood of the day:

“Yeah, it was a great afternoon. He was in town (Seattle, staying at the Westin) where I was a rock n roll turned country news director (KOL then KMPS) and L’Amour was on a book tour. Seems like all the new writers of the era (1970’s) would stay at the Westin – which locals insisted “looked like two corn cobs”. The food was great at the Palm Court on the main level. But where I put away too many martinis was downstairs at the Trader Vic’s. It was here I learned economics from the late Dr. Paul Erdman. “The Silver Bears” and “Crash of ’79” and many others. Unlike America, Swiss banking laws put the CEOs in prison (right or wrong) for the misdeeds of the underlings, so that’s how Erdman had time to write his first novels. I digress…

L’Amour was tall, somewhere between thin and lanky, wiry would be good, and had a beer while we talked for almost two hours, most of it being caught on tape for my weekend public affairs program “introspect” where I had all kinds of great guests – People like Richard Bach, Raymond Moody, Bob Cummings, the list went on and on.

L’Amour was a traditional Western guy, born in the Dakotas, and I was impressed by the hard crease in his jeans. In western circles, a good, solid, crease in jeans is a kind of status symbol, though people who haven’t lived in the “real west” tend not to notice. My wife (of now 25-years) had been a rodeo “timer” back in her western days and men in the west had a real “thing” about creased jeans…part of “strack” if you follow.

The most interesting part with L’Amour about his time “on the beach” down at San Pedro was during the Depression. He was trying to catch a merchant marine ride/job on a tramp steamer to go see Asia. That would turn into later short stories. He’d gone to the seaman’s center where they had collections of very small books, the Everyman’s Library mini pocketbooks. These are tiny books, some smaller than a regular paperback. Many were small enough to fit in a wandering man’s shirt pocket. They can still be found on eBay – and there’s a cult following collecting them. The older and smaller, the better.

Seamen were very good about taking these books from whatever seaman’s center they visited. It was very poor form not to pass-on a book when done. In a way, it was a low brow “original library lending system.” Run on an “honor system.” Back when there was such a thing.

Once L’Amour got a ship, he would read to his crew-mates, late at night up in the forecastle of the ship under (usually) a single swinging bulb. Where he said the crew (even those weak on english) would gather around to hear the stories. Some were the classics, and there was Jack London, Twain and lots of others. There was no radio and it was a captive audience.

After this, he got into how (and this was in the writing/reporting part as I recall) he had walked the old wagon roads and talked with whoever he could meet out there. Many of the old families along the trails out west still had vivid memories of the people, the outlaws,the wagon trains, and the settling of a territory fresh from either their own memory if old, or from parents and grandparents if younger.

He was a marvelous fellow – kind of guy you couldn’t help but listen to and respect because he really walked the talk – saw all the places he wrote about, with the exception of Siberia which was featured in his novel “Last of the Breed.” But even here, there was a large portion related to Native Americans, and their skills. Which were woven into a masterful tale of escape from Soviet Russia and “walking out” to Alaska by way of Siberia. While being pursued by a sadistic tracker.

Along the same lines (writers I’ve been privileged to meet and interview), I also taped James Michener when “Sports in America” came out. Time has dulled a lot of the memory of that book, but it was a fascinating tale laying out how “sports” in America went from being street level boxing ( in saloons, and work camps) into more organized and then how it all got on the road to mass popularization (and eventually monetization).

By the time I got to the Cayman Islands (by now an airline exec, 1984) I was anxious to meet Mohamed Ali (Cassius Clay) and that experience was highlighted by the handshake. I have reasonably sized hands, you see. But when I shook Ali’s hand (he was doing a fund raiser for the local boy’s club in Georgetown) it was like my hand was child-sized. His hands were enormous! Baseball mit size. Ever since that time, when in bars and dives, I’d always notice people’s hands. And wonder (still in awe) at how much of the time “reg’lar people” just blew smoke. Ali was THE real deal as I judged his hand probably weighed more than my hand plus the whole of my forearm to well past the elbow…

It’s been an “adventurer’s life” no question – such that when time comes, my Life Review ought to be pretty good. Every Christmas, I sit back and measure my life a bit. One way is to ask “Is there anyone who’s life you would trade” for your own?

I can honestly say “No, thanks.” It’s as good a measure of a well-played life as any I’ve found.

Write when you get rich,

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