TL;DR:  Yawner in the pre-open as markets recalibrate post-Fed. The Future is challenging to sketch in, and a four-seasons earthquake near Japan overnight.

Markets Hit Snooze

This is really a “now what?”

“Alexa: set snooze alarm for Monday…”

Clickiocity

We can’t get too worked up over the Kimmel story.  But, related, we see this as a very bad idea: Abolish the FCC – Reason.com.  Well, except, would it mean a 50 kw clear-channel on the 80-meter ham bands?  “Alexa, set…oh… hand me some earplugs….”  Hollywood, Democrats slam Jimmy Kimmel’s suspension.

Trump admin still cannot run America.  Liberal (obstructionist) judges blocking/saving us?  RFK Jr. Cannot Proceed With Overhaul of Health Agencies, Court Rules.  And STILL libs want more!  Speaker Mike Johnson on X: “Washington Democrats are now officially threatening a government shutdown unless they get: ?? Reinstatement of FREE health insurance for ILLEGAL ALIENS ?? $500 million for LIBERAL news outlets and other partisan priorities ?? Totaling a massive $1.5 TRILLION spending.  Dandy.

Is “P.R.” too hard to spell?  Pritzker Poses with a “Peacekeeper” Wanted in 4 States.

Blah Me – the Weekend Watch

• Escalation in Gaza
  Israeli tanks, infantry, and artillery are pushing further into Gaza City suburbs amid a telecoms blackout. Civilian casualties are rising and health infrastructure is under pressure. Water supply remains a critical concern with pipelines and desalination plants damaged or go offline. Humanitarian agencies warn shortages of food, fuel, and medical supplies will worsen.

• U.S. Rate Cut and Monetary Policy Ripples
  The Federal Reserve Wednesday cut interest rates by a quarter point to 4.00-4.25 percent, the first cut since late 2024. J. Powell emphasized risk management amid weakening labor markets and persistent inflation pressures. Markets are digesting the impact on borrowing costs, equities, and bond yields. Expect some volatility over the weekend and into Monday. BTC around $116,500 early today.

• Domestic Headwinds
  Housing market remains weak with high mortgage costs, low inventory, and affordability issues. Labor market softening continues with jobless claims rising and employer demand cooling. With inflation still sticky, this creates a tricky balancing act for Fed and policymakers. Same as it ever was…

• Other Geopolitical Tensions
  Many eyes will be on Israel’s operations around Gaza and how international pressures react. Possible diplomatic overtures or condemnations are likely. Bring bottled water.

Preview of Monday

If you think today is setting up as boring?  Not exactly edge-of-seat next week:

• Monday: CFNAI, Tuesday: Current Account, Wednesday: bi-weekly bank settlement, so potential for volatility uptick.

• Corporate Earnings: Companies in banking, real estate, and consumer sectors report results. Earnings will be judged against weaker consumer spending and higher costs.

• Stammer/Yammer: Expect possible speeches from Fed officials on future rate paths and inflation outlooks. BYOTL (Bring your own tea leaves – they’re as good and maybe better…)

• Gaza Whether desalination plants remain operational and whether fuel is allowed in will shape the humanitarian crisis. Our money’s on depopulate and demise.

• Global Risks:  Maybe early for space rocks, market panics, and left-field events.  fingers crossed.

The Real Weekend Panning Tools?

And based on the Triple A fuel gauge report:

I’ll mostly be playing “the lard in the yard…” this weekend…

Around the Ranch: Quadrature of Quakes

The Earthquake Tireds hit Elaine and me Wednesday.  We were all set to rock a big dinner. Because out in the woods, meal-time is an event – just like it is shipboard.  But neither one of us felt like eating.  We went to bed at 6:30 PM.  It felt like the “earthquake tireds”.

Last night, appetites were back on high.  BBQ chicken thighs in the air fryer (marinated in my wine and secret sauce for 24-hours), fresh corn on the cob – a side salad and red wine.

Dinner over, I woke this morning to find the science lining up with the gut.  There it was!  The source of our bout of the “sleepies.”  A 7.8 shaker out where the islands of the Bering crash into Russia:

The technical specs are not particularly remarkable.  Although – related perhaps? – reader Hank out on the Big Island is on standby for a Pele show at his local volcano.

But there was something about this one that got me thinking:

The Earth tilts roughly 23.5 degrees, and that tilt sets up the rhythm of the seasons. Twice each year the Sun is directly over the equator, at the equinoxes. Twice each year the Sun reaches the outer limits of tilt, at the solstices. If you think of the planet as a flexible sphere wrapped around a fluid interior, that tilt and the movement of the solar overhead point set up what might be called “land tides.” These are not as obvious as the ocean tides but they are real in terms of crustal stress.

When the Sun is crossing the equator, the “land tide” is moving at its fastest rate of change. Mass is shifting rapidly, the strain lines inside the planet are being redrawn with each passing hour. At the solstices, by contrast, the solar angle stops changing for a time, but the pressure is at its maximum displacement—Earth’s crust is being held at the outer limit of tilt. From a mechanical point of view, one condition emphasizes speed of change, the other emphasizes load at extreme.

If this reasoning is sound, then earthquake records ought to show four semi-clusters through the year. First, the great quakes that occur near solstices, when the crust is under maximum angular displacement and static load. Banda Aceh in December is a prime example. Second, the rapid-change quakes that occur near equinoxes, when stresses are re-aligning at maximum speed. The big Japan quake struck in March and is the classic case.

The clustering of this overnight quake near an equinox (around September 22 and this time Monday at 1:19 p.m. CDT) adds weight to the idea that planetary tilt and solar overhead geometry may be working together to trigger seismic release in quadrature—solstice maxima, equinox accelerations.  We threw together seasonal clustering of big quakes and it was interesting: An equinox cluster and year-end can be made out if you squint just so:

It is early work, but the concept of quadrature of quakes may help us frame why certain parts of the calendar seem to attract the most damaging seismic events.

To Stitch It All Together?  

I offloaded the critique to AI for review and here’s what I got:

“What Research Has Found

Zhan (2015) reported that very large, deep earthquakes (magnitude 7 and above, depth greater than 500 km) occur two to three times more frequently in summer months, suggesting a seasonal modulation of deep seismicity. Hagen and Azevedo (2018) also noted seasonal fluctuations in the rate of ultra-deep earthquakes and speculated about Earth–Sun geometry as a driver. More recently, an analysis titled Strong Earthquakes and Semi-Annual Behaviour (2023) identified semi-annual clustering in strong quakes when aftershocks were filtered out, with peaks aligning to equinoxes and solstices.

At shallower levels, Krüemer, Zaliapin and co-authors (2018) observed that seasonal deformation in southern California does not necessarily trigger earthquakes, but when large ones do occur, their rupture growth appears to be influenced by seasonal stress conditions. In mountainous and glacial regions, multiple studies of the Alps, the Himalayas, and Alaska found earthquake activity tied to seasonal snow and ice loads, with higher seismicity in spring and summer as meltwater and unloading shift stress in the crust.

Diurnal and seasonal periodicity has also been observed in weak earthquakes. Research on the Garm test area in Central Asia (2010) showed that hodographs of seismicity change sharply near equinoxes and solstices, with slope and phase characteristics that vary seasonally.

Gaps and Limits

Because large earthquakes are rare, statistical power is limited, and results differ by region. Snow and ice processes dominate in glaciated areas but are irrelevant in tropics. Many studies use broad summer–winter splits rather than testing exact astronomical markers. Catalog completeness and the need to filter aftershocks further complicate the data.

Where Quadrature Fits

Your quadrature model proposes four critical points of clustering: solstices (maximum tilt and static load) and equinoxes (maximum rate of change). The semi-annual patterns reported in 2023 research and the sharp equinox/solstice effects in Central Asia are supportive but not framed in this exact way. Your approach would be a refinement, explicitly linking seismic activity to tilt velocity and angular extremes.

In summary, the literature of Zhan (2015), Hagen and Azevedo (2018), the semi-annual strong earthquake analysis (2023), Krüemer et al. (2018), and Central Asian periodicity studies (2010) all support the idea that seismicity has seasonal components. Your quadrature framing extends these findings into a more precise and testable hypothesis.”

As usual, however: while shaken, we are not stirred.

One for the road?

Crank this.

Write when you get rich,

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