We are – right now – in what I call “IHOP Markets.”  Because prices keep waffling.

Our best guess (and that’s all market lookaheads are., in all reality), it looks to us like there is clear sailing ahead until Labor Day.  Sure, there is a Fed FOMC in a couple of weeks,. But sure as the market fell on its ass Wednesday, it’s set to pick itself up and make rational prediction impossible.

Well, at least nearly impossible.  You see, under the surface there are many gears moving and today we’ll focus on a few.

Consumer Spending Troubles?

Consumer Debt report from the Fed Yesterday:  shocker was that May credit card (and revolving) debt use was down 4.7 percent.  That meant total credit laid a goose egg for the month. Wow!

Meanwhile, monetary inflation (and specifically M2 seasonally adjusted) is going up faster than 5 percent per year.  With it, the National Debt continues to compound, and we are quickly approaching the run-away compounding point.

The BEA’s Q1 headline was 2.1% annualized real GDP growth, which sounds decent until it is set beside money growth, debt growth, and household fuel costs. Meanwhile, good luck staying afloat.  The reason?  Well, let’s talk about gasoline prices. Money growth running ahead of real GDP is not an accounting identity, but it sure hints at screaming debt pressure ahead.

Hold your wallet up: AAA figured a year ago gas prices were around $3.163 per gallon and this week it’s $3.846.  I’m still working on my Junior Econometrician Merit Badge but that sure seems like 21-some percent higher.  (We give tanks…)

My point?  By fall we may see wheat prices soar not only because of drought (we’ll get there in a second) but also because of input costs and planning ahead for next year. We’re already hearing financial disaster rumors out of south-east Washington because present wheat prices won’t stitch ends together.

Is America Ready?

In our ($40/year) subscriber newsletter (Peoplenomics) we made the case Wednesday that traditional economics (and cycles work) misses the sociology behind the scenes, almost entirely.  In a  sizable working paper (70 pgs.) I explain what the “softs” are telling us about history.

One short takeaway is that “hard times” going into global conflict may “season the winning side” because economic Depressions cause people to forego convenience and friction reduction.  In short, people learn about “making do” and innovation on the fly.

Arguably we haven’t done that in recent economic history. In fact, just the opposite seems to be in play in the macro cycles (including Kondratieff, et al). Instead of a “bit of suffering” to back in off the hyperinflation ledge, we have accentuated softer through runaway socialist agendas.  We have become a “real piece of work.” That doesn’t…

The Truth of the Tape?

Let’s compare whether the AI Bubble (as measured in the multiple markets Peoplenomics Aggregate Index) is continuing to Replay 1929.

I sketched in a couple of ovals because there seems to be a similarity in modest hesitation at this part of the waveform.

This hints that we have two main directions to decide between.  Higher infers inflation – and drivers there could involve energy shortages (Iran’s a great scapegoat) and drought – which would fit Democrats’ deification of St. Gore as the one true climate savior.  That is the “high case.”

The low case begins with attacks on banking and personal finance infra – and that shakes confidence apart at just the moment we can’t afford it. Paper assets – and even crypto – loses its “edge” as people suffer power outages and systemic financial instability.  This results in mass layoffs in the Service Sector which now comprises  76 to 77% of U.S. GDP.

Our (so-called) leaders have seen to it that actual manufacturing of goods has fallen to 10-11 percent.  All part of the corporate office socialism that swindled America out of self-reliance while wrapping itself in good socialist narratives (“we need to help the third world”).  But the reality of cleaning out America was (and remains) least-cost labor because the rich pricks never lose control.

Bottom Line?

We are “in the window” where something has to give (besides Trump changing planes).  In our work (from which the chart above fell out) here’s how the Aggregate is doing compared to 1929.

This suggests that we are in a POSSIBLE alignment where the mood and odds are similar (but actually holding up a bit better) compared to 1929 and the lead-in to the Crash.

Alright – enough long wave economic perspective. But before we get all attention-deficit and wander toward more useful inputs two more nuggets:  The Weekly Unemployment Filings and this morning’s Drought Monitor read.

40 pecent of L48 is in drought to some degree.  In our solar-powered greenhouse. ambient intake air to the swamp coolers has dried a bit and our evap cooling is now keeping daily peak temps a few degrees under local “official highs.”  93F with 48% RH and even  with the solar gain we only had one heat spike to 92.7F.  Score a small gain for solid engineering.

Turn On the News Compressor!

For most journos, this will be National Rewrite Day as post G7, even the fools need time to get home before screwing up an otherwise inhabitable planet.  Who needs econometrics when we have recursive AI?

“What changed overnight is the US-Iran military exchange entered a second consecutive day of direct strikes and formal political rupture. CENTCOM reported completing an additional round of strikes on approximately 90 Iranian military targets, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance assets, missile and drone storage sites, naval capabilities, and logistics infrastructure along Iran’s coastline. President Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” warned of further US strikes, and stated the US would hold Iran accountable for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with strikes or actions targeting sites in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar; air raid alerts were issued in affected areas. Oil prices surged sharply—Brent rose over 5% to multi-week highs near $78/barrel and WTI near $73.50—as markets priced renewed Hormuz shipping risks and the Treasury’s prior revocation of Iran oil-sales licenses. Iran also held funeral rites for its slain Supreme Leader. This marks a clear step beyond the July 7 strikes described in the prior news compressor run, shifting from fragile ceasefire to active, multi-day exchange with expanded Iranian retaliation and explicit US political termination of talks.”

The Ultimate Water War Arrives

Mainstream/Lamestream Media really misses the intel-level.  Let’s read you in to fix that:

Our Nightmare on Sand Street has everyone in the Middle East lighting up and going after each other’s desalination plants.  At some level, “gentlemanly warfare” ends and the killing/diaspora will begin.

“Israel obtains about 80% to 85% of its domestic municipal and industrial water supply from seawater desalination. Five major coastal desalination facilities produce roughly 600 million cubic meters of water annually.

Iran relies almost exclusively on traditional groundwater, rivers, and dams for its water supply. While Iran has some localized desalination along its southern Gulf coast, desalinated water constitutes a negligible fraction of its total national water portfolio.”

Now, what we see is Iran patiently ramping up the Water War in their overnight attacks. Here’s their water source dope the mainstream isn’t reporting:

• Qatar: 100% of residential and drinking water is supplied by desal plants.
• Bahrain: Over 90% of drinking and domestic water comes from desalination, with groundwater largely reserved for emergencies.
• Kuwait: Approximately 90% of residential water needs are fulfilled by desalinated water.

Between Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, roughly 10 million people sit inside this desalination dependency zone. Add Israel’s 9.6 million, and the water-risk population becomes enormous. Move over historical genocide records if it goes that way.   The odds are NOT zero based on the overnights.

Personal Intel Action Planner

• Fuel-sensitive operators: recheck diesel, freight, backup-generator fuel, and surcharge assumptions. Oil is off the spike, but insurance and tanker routing are the real tell now.
• Import/export operators: avoid assuming Gulf routing is “business as usual.” Ask forwarders for written war-risk, routing, and delay assumptions.
• Small businesses: review 7–14 day inventory exposure to fuel, plastics, chemicals, fertilizer-linked inputs, and food items with long shipping tails.
• Travel/security: anyone with staff, vendors, ships, or aviation connections in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, or eastern Saudi should refresh contact trees and shelter-in-place instructions. Why you’d want to vacation there is beyond us, but to each their own.
• IT shops: patch exposed ColdFusion and Langflow instances first, then check UniFi OS and Ruckus router exposure. The AI/dev-tool edge is now a real target zone.
• Microsoft 365 admins: review passkey-enrollment and help-desk identity reset procedures; vishing against identity workflows is rising.
• Food safety: CDC has a current E. coli warning tied to recalled frozen blueberries. Check freezer inventory before use. Oh goody! Let’s all play “Healthy or Sick Roulette!”

Around the Ranch: Sideband Dream, II

I wrote up a dream I had the morning of June 30- which is 10 days back.  And in it, I dreamed that I’d soon come to have in my collection a rather rare ham radio called a Drake TR-5.  Well, sure enough this week, the exact radio came up on eBay. But the price was far above the $550 that my dream said I should not bid above.

I’m not sure how this precognitive dreams stuff works, but our recent science work on how we’re all “test-fitting apes” seems like it may shed some light on things. (TFA is my next book.)

Still, when I have precognitive dreams, they come a day to a week ahead of events, but usually much closer in than the 10-day lead time on rare ham gear.  Didn’t know Universe was so hobby accommodating, did you?

The seller has an offer from me for the dream max bid ($550) but whether he takes it or not, I have no idea how the future webs out from his decision or what the point of this is.

Except maybe I can do better than seeing ahead 18 hours (Deepwater Horizon precog dream) or a couple of hours (Arizona fatal crash avoided dream). There is a useful thing in here: if you live long enough… a lot of the missing pieces in life will slide into place.

Just being open to whatever comes still seems to make the most sense.

Frontier – Edge Woo-Woo

Quick – everyone send this to my friend G.A. Stewart who’s the world expert on Nostradamus.  Because astrology may have a can opener to it.

Check out THE WORLD WE HAVE KNOWN ENDS THIS JULY. A NEW ONE BEGINS. THE BARBAULT BASKET and it will all make sense.

Well, I mean as much as anything does on these sleigh rides around the Sun.

Like I told the woman at the pharmacy drive-through Wednesday, “The only thing that beats being 77 was being 76…”

Write when we wake up – I’m off to shoot more game film for the life review.  (Grounded or the real NDE adjacent one…)

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