TL;DR:  The odds of a market rally into tomorrow’s New Moon is possible.  The war fronts are stable (bad).  And GovDown may last until Turkey Day – My! What a fit!

Fly Me to the Moon?

Our consigliere, an otherwise rational tax attorney, able to leap tall CREs and LLCs, did a tremendous study of market cyclicity in 1979.  As an up and coming CPA/Tax Lawyer sort.  Anyway, point is that he noticed significant market peaks tended to happen around the New Moon.

Cue the AI:

“New moons marked the start of months for Babylonian and Hebrew calendars, while the Chinese term Shuò signals the first day of the lunar month. Mariners tied the dark Moon to spring-tide timing, and farmers treated it as a reset point for sowing cycles. In many traditions the unseen Moon is a hinge in time: a moment of deliberate pause before the first sliver of returning light sets the next month in motion.”

We will skip over the Mariners reference (31% chance of going to the Series) and drop right into the “sowing cycles” of farming, instead.

Profits have been growing but even with the blip higher at the open today we still have this mess on our hands from this historical standpoint:

As we were discussing on the Peoplenomics side of the house this weekend, the ultimate tone of the week (past New Moon) could be set by the fate of Europe.  Which, so far this week is putting on a modest rally.

On the other hand?  Gold is back sniffing around $4,300 on the Futures while Silver is holding over $50 and those made-up currencies backed by,…um…air?   From kissing $104,000 Friday to making a hard charge at $111,000 this morning, if you like volatility, you’ll love this one.

For us?  Our idea of a relaxing Sunday was sitting on the screen porch contemplating the Food Reactor project in the ShopTalk Sunday column.  Which you did read, right?  We’re still clinging to the idea that Durable Wealth – the kind you carry around between your ears (in one of the rare untaxed places left on Earth) is what matters.

Say, would it be too macabre to wonder if it’s OK to put a couple of pennies over the eyes before being cremated?  You know, just in case?  (Halloween is coming and with Stephen King dialing it back, we’re here to help weird along, don’tcha know?

Turkey Time!

We’ve been contemplating filing a lawsuit in Federal Court over the GovDown (government shutdown, if you’re new around here).  Grounds?  Consumer Fraud.  See, here’s the logic:

We pay our taxes (and then some) all regular and auditable-like.  But we also expect 100 percent of what we thought we were buying.  (Being older, maybe we’re just…you know…funny that way…)

For all the belly-aching and whining – and stories like Lawmakers deadlocked as shutdown enters fourth week. If you waste your time on partisanship, you can sort media by which side they’re blaming for the mess.  Liberal enclaves will cite the R’s as the baddies.  (Rep. DelBene Blames GOP for Government Shutdown).

Maybe it was the second glass of wine last night. But, we sort of concluded that it’s much easier to play the right-left “on them” game than admit we generally elect worthless pieces of crap to higher office.  (YMMV, but we’re not seeing much variance in the samples, right?)

Honestly, we STILL can’t fathom  the Trump pardon in the “full diaper” Santos decision last week.  Politics always Depends.

Where was I?  Oh yes!  When do we start getting tax rebates based on government non-performance?

No Kings and Performance

Ubofficially, anti-Trump liberals ginned up over $100-million for No Kings rallies this weekend.

But the real “snookering” of both remaining “normal people” was the headlines and hysteria about Camp Pendleton: I-5 freeway closed due to Marines anniversary event in Southern California.

Anyone from the area will tell you the gun emplacements are west of I-5 and the targets of east of I-5 and this has been going on for years.  But, when you have Gruesome stalking the Oval, it’s somehow not surprising.  This was about signage and timing as well as public IQ testing when comes down to it.

Still, that doesn’t stop the liberal media from bu8llhorning Nationwide ‘No Kings’ protest exposed the Trump admin’s key vulnerability: analyst – Raw Story.  But just who was the “analyst” you’re wondering?  Here; let’s put a dime in The Reality Machine:

“Brian Tyler Cohen, born in 1989 and educated at Lehigh University, built his reputation not in a newsroom but in the digital commons of YouTube and podcasts. His show, No Lie with Brian Tyler Cohen, began in 2020 and quickly became a hub for progressive voices. By 2024, he was a New York Times best-selling author and a frequent MSNBC contributor. His reach is massive, his production slick, and his tone unmistakably partisan.

Cohen is less a journalist than a political performer—a skilled communicator serving a clear ideological mission. His “analysis” functions as affirmation for the liberal audience still nursing the trauma of the Trump years. He packages outrage into digestible clips, reinforces the moral high ground, and hands Democrats a rhetorical win each news cycle.

Calling him a news analyst is technically defensible—he analyzes news—but the essence of his work is advocacy wrapped in commentary. In the modern propaganda economy, he’s one of the left’s most effective amplifiers: articulate, relentless, and perfectly aligned with the narrative machinery that thrives on perpetual opposition.”

Hmm. Might have to take some indecent liberties with my resume, too.  Marketing works as long as the fish are biting.

Hit the Snews Alarm!

Yes, kiddies, time to roll through the utter absurdity of life.

OK, we have been watching Trump ramp up against drug trafficking in Venezuela but now comes this:  Trump to Increase Tariffs, Cut Subsidies to Colombia Over Drug Trafficking.  Where is all this going?  Well, with incursions into Mexico and now Venezuela, we can’t help but wonder if the Developer In Chief is planning to make a United States expansion into Central and South America next?  Or is there something else at play?

For example?  Well, how about China pulling on the rare earths choke collar?  Which involves Colombia how?

“Colombia’s mineral map is being redrawn as geologists confirm promising deposits of rare earth elements—particularly in the departments of Vichada, Guainía, and Meta. Long overshadowed by gold and coal, these frontier regions host monazite- and bastnäsite-bearing sands linked to ancient igneous intrusions and weathered laterites. Early surveys suggest commercially significant concentrations of neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium—the metals essential for high-efficiency magnets, wind turbines, and electric vehicles. Political stability, improving infrastructure, and proximity to Atlantic and Pacific shipping lanes position Colombia as a potential Western-friendly alternative to Chinese supply dominance, provided environmental safeguards and indigenous rights are handled with more care than the nation’s historical resource rushes.”

What Trump is trying to ensure, least-wise seems to us, is protecting another one of our “soft flanks.”

Social Security Budgeting Outlook:  Social Security’s 2026 COLA Forecast: What Retirees Ages 62 to 80 Should Expect   TL;DR?  figure 2.7 percent which is the hot number on the street for now.  But with GovDown no official number until late this week (or next).,

Around the Ranch: Annual Wellness Check

Elaine and I go in to our PcP (no, not angel dust – at our age that’s a Primary Care Provider).  I’ve been writing a standup routine for it.

“Do you Feel Safe at home?”    With the TV on or off?

Then comes the memory test: “Can you remember three words—apple, penny, table?” Sure, but can you remember where you parked the car? Or that you had a car? Or, if married, who drove here?

“Any trouble dressing yourself?” Only when the waistband argues with breakfast.  Or, “Those pants look like crap on you, George…”  Hmm.

They always finish with, “Do you have any firearms in the house?” I tell them, “How do you want me to score the nail gun and the staple gun in the shop? Do grease guns count…come on, give me some guidance here. Besides the number of rounds if we can red nail loads would make me sound like a terrorist cell…”

By the time we get to “How’s your mood? Do you get depressed?”

I’m thinking—depends on the market, the moon, and how long the wait is at the pharmacy. It’s like open mic night at Medicare—except they’re holding the clipboard and you’re just trying to keep your co-pay from heckling.

“Your blood pressure’s a little elevated today.”

“Yeah – tough room…”

Write when we’re over Monday, I plan to rehearse all day.

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