TL;DR: Full Moon theory is probably wrong but we have a future plot.  Yeah, Russiagate was a Lie, Comey.  And our chess game with the Future out many moves.

Markets and  the “Lunarcy of ’29”

As a beat cop, people in the ER or the EMTs hauling the inbound; they will all mention Full Moons.  As a  reporter the “crazy times” were predictable – Full Moons.

While being labeled lunatics, and being tied in to howling and the periodic appearance of facial hair, some people do have a harder time sleeping when the Moon is full. 10 days from now – October 6th – plan on drawing the black-out curtains again. It will be “time.”

Lunarcy is a little different than run-of-the-mill lunacy.  It’s the study of the impacts of lunar cycle progression. And here’s where it gets interesting.

I have mentioned many times my consigliere’s long wave economic work. Done in 1979 it was a young man’s compulsion to “figure it all out.”  To an extent?  He did.

Thing is, his research found that market tops and bottoms clustered around New Moons.  Sure, if a Full Moon, welfare checks, and the first (or fifteenth) of the month all happen to hit at the same time, ERs will be full and domestic cases will soar.

But that’s not when markets peak or valley.   The New Moon rules.  You remember 1929, right?

“The new moon nearest to September 3, 1929, was on September 3, 1929, itself. This means that September 3, 1929, was a new moon, and the subsequent new moon was in October 1929. “

And our New Moon?  This time around?  Last Sunday.  The 21st.  And the market high so far this week?  Our Aggregate Index over the past week, or so?  Even with a modest rally today (which who knows, right?) we will hold off on popping the bubbly because we do have a market high to worry about.

Lunar Tides of 1929

I went back and checked the lunar tables. The big market top came on September 3, 1929 — the very same day as a new moon. That’s not coincidence in my book.

The next new moon came on October 2, 1929. That was just three weeks before Black Thursday and Black Tuesday. In other words, right after the lunar reset the market slid into its historic plunge.

The (then) Dow stocks hit a low on October 29th at 230.07.  A secondary low came November 6th at 232.13.  By November 13th of 1929, the Dow had fallen below 200.

In the study of markets, you may notice the three day weekend after The Crash. I looked into it. The reason the markets were closed November 1, 2, and 3, 1929, was to allow a “clean-up” period for bookkeeping and settlement, given the tumult of the crash. November 1 was officially a “clean up day” for the NYSE so brokers and clerks could fix errors and reconcile accounts created by the flood of frantic trading in the previous week. On November 2 and 3 the exchange remained closed in continuation of that pause.

This was all in very close proximity to the second new moon, November 1, 1929. By then the worst of the panic had blown through, but the damage was done. That new moon fell almost like a marker on the grave of the Roaring Twenties.  Were it not for intervention, it might have.

So the pattern is plain enough: new moon at the top, next new moon as the collapse set in, and the following one closing the chapter. The lunar clock didn’t just tick in 1929 — it rang the bell for the Crash.

Why It Matters Note:  The first New Moon after the 1929 market peak hit as the decline passed 15 percent down.  By that indicator, if we see the modern Aggregate Index crater in coming weeks under 50,000, then the odds of lower by Thanksgiving go through the roof, as we figure it.

This is NOT Investment Advice.  But, check your seat belt – from next week on, events could feel a lot like lunacy.

Cycles don’t just show up in markets — politics follows a lunacy of its own…which takes the off ramp to…

Asymmetric Politics

We have been watching the Left-dominated media for weeks, now running stories about Donald Trump using the Department of Justice under Pam Bondi as a “tool of political retribution.” Former FBI director Comey charged amid Trump retribution push, is but one of many such headlines.

I refuse to accept that as gospel, so here’s my attempt at a more even-handed breakdown:

Was Russiagate “real”?
Yes and no. (Mostly no.)  There were a few real intelligence threads, intercepts, and suspicious contacts. Normal when power is shifting, but this time it was weaponized. The way it was sold — as a grand conspiracy with no room for nuance — was propaganda, not investigation.

Did “intel officers” who signed anti-Trump letters act inappropriately?
Possibly. When dozens of ex-officers sign a public letter casting doubt on an ongoing narrative, the line between professional judgment and political play blurs. Were they goaded by desperate Democrats trying to stem populism? I believe the temptation was there, even if not every signer succumbed.

As luck would have it, I know some “ex high-level intel” types.  They are not power-seeking, and they stay clear of situations where they could be roped into public participation. But then these are the pros and not signers.  Signers? They belong in the partisan junta’s clown car.  Good news? At least the power-crazed megalomaniacs tend to be “self-identifying.”

Why aren’t many others in jail?
Because this story isn’t just about law — it’s about power, immunity, and institution protection. The DOJ and intel apparatus protect their own. Charges against high-profile actors are selective and symbolic. Real accountability? That would require upending the system — and that cuts both ways.

Bottom line is that even with the indictment of Comey, the Marxist subtext (“When we do it, it’s justice, when others do it, it’s illegal”) will continue unabated.  See, the insurrectionist media have already cast “retribution” as their anti-Orange anchor.  And (it’s sad) most low IQ voters won’t be able to differentiate the ongoing slur.

Just remember, if (when) you read words like “retribution” in a “media report” – that’s a judgment call by crooks without ethics.  Journalism was once about facts not the “rush to judge” we’re in now.

Why We Support “Strip and Leave”

There’s another case – not unlike the Comey indictment:  Senior DOJ leaders advocating for charging Trump critic John Bolton this week, sources say. This one is interesting, too:  Because Bolton is a nominal republican tool.

Yet we run into a riff of Comey in the sense that Bolton’s counsel has already referred to “…the records the former national security adviser had would have been typical of those kept by a long-time government official.”

There is an easy answer to this kind of bullshit:  Strip all persons with access to classified information of ALL rights to access.  Period, no exceptions.  No Comey, No Bolton, No Hunter…

To allow ongoing access, in our view, does two very bad things.  First, because of “access” it gives a kind of “soft power” to people who are out of (government) control.  Second, it underwrites a “class of experts” most of which have agendas of their own.

Simple to us:  You are on a team or off.  If off? Go home, sit down, and STFU – don’t want to hear from you.

That’s mainly because the left has been the world’s abusers of positional power. But neither side is pure – so let’s clean it ALL up.

Think dems are mad now? About Comey? President Trump confirms George Soros and Epstein Island visitor Reid Hoffman are under investigation for financing radical left-wing terrorist groups like ANTIFA,

In the Cranial Vacuum

Lots of headlines, lots of suck. Let’s see what pieces are sliding around right now, shall we?

You might want to get a signed delivery confirmation on that… Trump vows Israel won’t annex West Bank. Then again, Trump has been talking turkey with a who? Turkey’s Erdogan says meaningful progress made in Trump talks,

War expansion sliders: Zelensky Says Trump Has Approved Ukrainian Strikes Deep Inside Russia and May Provide a Game-Changing Weapon. Could this be foreplay to what Pete Hegseth will tell his troops in Quanitico next week?

Free Money? Amazon Prime settlement refund: who’s eligible, and how to get yours.

Good news if you’re getting older: Think Aging Means Decline? 1 In 4 Ailing Older Adults Bounce Back To Ideal Health.

Weekend Planner

• Gasoline is about a nickel a gallon cheaper than last weekend, AAA Fuel Prices
• Monday looks quiet (at least on the schedule) but Tuesday we have two potential disrupters: Watch the US bond auctions and we will have a two-part column Tuesday as the Case-Shiller Housing Index comes out.  We think prices may how, but sales volume may be weak.
• If you’re in the U.S. Southeast – check on your storm preps today or tomorrow.”Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
  association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the
  Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure
  is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the
  southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical
  depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest
  Bahamas over the weekend, and then track northwestward or northward
  over the southwestern Atlantic.Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are ongoing
  in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos Islands,
  and are likely to spread across the Bahamas and eastern Cuba during
  the next day or two. Interests in all of these areas should monitor
  the progress of the system. While there remains considerable
  uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system,
  there is a significant risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge
  impacts for a portion of the southeast U.S. coast early next week.”
• Here in ERast Texas, we will suffer through a week of high 80s and lows around 60 will solar power galore…

Don’t forget ShopTalk Sunday will be along, too.

Around the Ranch: Prep and Recovery

I have noticed that the term “prepping” has been losing a it of traction lately.  If you’ve read any of our work on use of the Casare Marchetti stochastic S-curves, this is an interesting data series to consider.  From Google Trend Labs, a long-term view:

We’re not sure what to make of it, but there are implications to consider.

Let’s look at some of the Big Ones first:

September 2025 Solar Storm Window

Forecast models indicate elevated risk of solar radiation storms in September 2025. Even if not catastrophic, this is a period to keep backups charged and essentials secured.

2026 to 2027 Continuing Solar Peak

Solar storms tend to cluster across several years around the maximum. Preppers should expect rolling disruptions or blackouts in this window, especially in areas with older grid infrastructure.

2028 Great Planetary Alignment

In October 2028 a major planetary alignment is predicted. These alignments often become focus points for fear, markets, and instability. Even if physics remains unchanged, mass psychology can turn dates like this into self-fulfilling risk windows.

2029 to 2030 Solar Cycle Transition

The handoff from Solar Cycle 25 to Solar Cycle 26 is expected by the end of the decade. These transitions can bring unstable sunspot behavior and another round of unpredictable solar output, a natural risk amplifier.

Ongoing Seasonal Economic Shocks

Historically, major financial shocks have clustered in the fall months, particularly September and October. Each year from now to 2030, preppers should be alert in that season for systemic economic pressures to peak.

Closer-In We Have More

As we laid out in the Thursday column, my consigliere’s work points to a fall “risk bubble” of Israel (having to) preemptively strike Iranian nuclear facilities. Which are adjacent to big cities – which means human shields which could mean mass loss of life.  And in turn, an Islamic nuclear state (think Pakistan) could strike.  Which would feed into mounting pressure in Poland – it’s complicated, we’ll explain as it rolls out).

But – and this is important – there’s the military brass meets-up with Dept. of War boss Pete Hegseth next week – which could be a…what?

If that happens, you will have 3-years to the real schiznit.  False Peace is widely written if you go looking.

While you’re on click-about, be sure to take in G.A. Stewart’s piece on how the comet Swan figures into prepping plans, too: THE BLACK SWAN – THE AGE OF DESOLATION.

We won’t give you a list of things to have done as we enter the implied windows ahead.  But I’d refer you back to my conversation with George 2 (my son) and how there’s “One mindset to Build and another to Maintain systems.”

That’s where we are now:  Always will be ham radio antenna (and equipment) work to be done.  And a lot of the “routines” – like getting the 600 gallons of backup potable water changed – all things that go on the schedule.  And for me?  Those are the toughest part.

See, my nature, I’m an explorer and mountain climber in the mental sense.  Go forth to new vistas, seek new ideas and implementations.  Cleaning up the shop bench?  Oh…shit…that.

With the weather moderating (ahead of rain in the Southeast next week from storms) this is the time of year to really “pick ’em up and put ’em down…”  Whether you are hiking, or laying in new additional decking, or just fixing the things on your list.

Usually, when I work it’s quiet and total focus on the job.  But, maintenance work?  Yeah…this time of year I think back to my pal, the Major’s dad.  Late September was for house painting and hedge trimming.  He had an old Sony transistor radio and his “maintenance time” was made more palatable by having the Sony on while he “got things done.”

Never really considered it until this fall.  But with prepping largely done…maybe while mowing the gun range or refilling 300 gallon water tanks, a college sports event on radio  could be useful.  Not a sports fan, mind you – and it is a monumental waste.  UNTIL as I figured this morning, that whole “12th Man thing” might have a lot of appeal to  Maintainers – keeping them nose to the stone while us Builders are focused elsewhere.

Invented right here in Texas: The “12th Man” concept in football originates with Texas A&M University, which has a federally registered trademark on the term for its student body. Other American football teams, like the Seattle Seahawks and formerly the Indianapolis Colts, also use the term to refer to their supporters, though many have stopped or settled with Texas A&M due to the trademark. The term can also refer to a positive, community-focused soccer podcast or a charitable organization promoting mental health in community football clubs.

I’ll be trying it this weekend.  “Alexa – play some mind-numbing sports crap….”

Let you know how it works,

Dow’s going to bounce at the open say futures, but with the BTC under $109,000 last night briefly, color us skeptical of a durable rally through the close.

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