We won’t really know – for sure and for certain – what this Christmas told us about the economy for a while.  Sure, there was a dandy run into the Christmas Eve early closes, but markets are set to give back a bit at the open today.

Early futures showed the Dow off 100 but smaller losses on the S&P and the techs.  While the Street waits for the high-sign from retailers, the only major paper note is the Fed balance sheet which will be out after the close.  Just in time not to matter until Monday.

But next week?  Improvised Economic Devices include Trade Monday and then Housing Tuesday, so you’ll have to pardon our general skepticism. Buy the Rumor, anyone?

Happy Retailers?

Sure – for now, maybe.  When the numbers come in, retailers anticipate record-setting shopping season despite economic concerns.

But looking back over the last year, we still see the ongoing street fight between Big Box Stores on the one hand and local hardscrabble merchants trying to keep the lights on.  Like numerical data? The U.S. said goodbye to these 4 major retailers in 2025.

We won’t know absolute truth until monthly totals come in, but good luck finding parking spots on this Boxing Day 2025.  Usefully, CNET popped Your Guide to Amazon, Apple, Walmart, Target and Other Retailers’ Holiday Return Policies.

Our take is “and many happy returns” with a side of “take the money and run.”

Silver Tests $75.

This one stood out in our morning review of futures pricing.

The basics of the move can be read in Silver jumps past $75 in extended record run for metals including gold and platinum.

But we are always a little bit concerned when the “big voices” start talk-down a price move like this.  Silver’s runaway rally sweeps up amateur investors.  Amateur investors? Oh really?

More pragmatically, Reuters offers some schooling on How silver is traded, from stocks and shares to coins and bars.  But for our part?  BTDT – been there, done that – and we may still be doing – we don’t tell.

One other Biggie on the Futures?

Copper -with a nearly three percent hike in prices overnight.  Copper’s a worry because it usually firms and rises ahead of wars (shell casings and what-not).

Naturally, we looked around to see if there were any “flashing yellows” going off that could indicate the odds of major war in 2026 were increasing.  Sure enough: Romania scrambled fighter jets amid Russian attack on Odesa Oblast.

For now, the pacifying press – preoccupied with “nurturing the narrative” – is trying to put on the “hopeful hat” with stories like Zelensky holds talks with US envoys as Russia sees ‘slow but steady’ peace progress.  Apparently some drafts are ready for show-time and that, in turn drives Zelenskyy confirms planned meeting with US President Trump.

But hold the phone there, Bubba.  Seems to us that with Trump standing down on NATO funding and with Russia still pushing west, the long-term outcome still colors-in as red (as in coming death and bloodshed) in Europe and before the next year is done.

Granted, we’re given to over-prepping for all possible outcomes.  But Copper is rising (along with Gold and Silver).  While this doesn’t support a full manic break, it does drive inventory and survivability checks.

Checking the News Scope

Why, look at the screen on the right!  It sure looks like crap weather out west, doesn’t it?

Let’s zoom in: More rain expected in Southern California after flooding, mudslides batter region. Brings back the “multispectral life” experience of Burbank. Where, in one year, we went from water up to the floorboards of the car from rain and flooding to watching fires burn off the hills northeast of the city.

Orange Man Hate (OMH) – the best monetization going for liberal media is alive and well. Our “daily sampler pack” features ‘Something’s rotten’: Conspiracy theories fly as new DOJ Epstein note burned by both sides – Raw Story  We’d also repeat  that “Jimmy Kimmel” is not news but he’s a fine narrative rider: ‘Tyranny is booming’: Jimmy Kimmel targets Trump in alternative Christmas message.

Sometimes it’s the “news that didn’t happen” that helps: Turkey detains dozens of ISIS suspects allegedly planning attacks on Christmas and New Year celebrations.

Think(s) Without Links

From our “digital cub reporter” (J. Olsen) a two useful points to remember:

Health Signals That Aren’t Being Talked About

Post-holiday inflammation, sleep disruption, cognitive fog, blood sugar chaos, immune stress. Not medical advice, but pattern-level discussion. People feel off after Christmas and want to understand why without being sold supplements.  We think too many carbs and undiagnosed celiac is probably a hidden pandemic…

AI, Automation, and the Quiet Job Squeeze

Not sci-fi. Not hype. Practical displacement anxiety. People are noticing tools getting better and humans being quietly sidelined. This resonates strongly with the 50+ crowd who are mentoring kids, managing businesses, or watching career ladders wobble.  Our 27th year here reminds that debt reduction and elimination is the one-size cure for most social ailments.

Around the Ranch: Turkey Engineering

We went to bed around 7 PM last night.  Not from working too hard.  Carbie overdose was the problem.

See, I bought us a dual temp, wireless thermometer for the kitchen. (This one.)

I am totally impressed.  The way it works is simple: There are two temperature probes.  One I put into the (13 lb) turkey’s breast.  The other went into the thigh at the thickest part, but not touching the bone.

The turkey was perfectly thawed in the fridge and was rested out of the fridge for several hours before going into an oven bag.  At this point, the meat temps were around 54-degrees.

Into a hot – thermally-stable oven (thermal mass from the 25 pound pizza steel) – where the bird roasted breast-down at 325.  Upon hitting 145, the bird was returned to the breast up position to finish.

Coming out at 160F breast and 164 thigh, it was set to rest in the oven bag for 40 minutes. Hit 181 and 171 resting.  Which gave time to scissor the bag and get the drippings which went into gravy makings.  And then with the breast temp down to 138 F George Scissorhands carved.

It was glorious.  Tender, moist, done just so.  And now I have plans to do a bone-in prime rib next week to kick the New Year off right.  One thermometer just off the bone and centered, the other 2/3rds of the way up and 1/3rd of the way in.  From which you ought to be able to create a FLIR-style mental heat map on your way to caloric perfection.

Was the dinner perfect?  Well, no…  I was unable even after a half-dozen phone calls to find a local foodarium that had any eggnog in stock.

Undeterred. I will be double-stocking (should any come in this week) and match that with a double-order of spiced rum.

We are still amazed at the sleep-inducing effects of boring TV and carbies, though. Nothing like conducting your own personal 10-hour sleep study, is there?

Not ahead of hefting another 3/4 ton of patio pavers – which we will get into on ShopTalk Sunday in part 1 of the new deck build…

Write when you wake up and smell the bacon, or coffee…

[email protected]

(Now, run over and read G.A. Stewart’s column “IT’S A WONDERFUL LIFE – THE AGE OF DESOLATION. It’s a dandy of a column and touches much Deep Truth.)