The past couple of Job mentions from Challenger (Job Cuts Report) made a lot of people feared the worst.  But in our back-o-the-envelope, the number of UI filings Thursday was on the lite side. So employment may surprise…

Sure, ADP added some jobs Wednesday, but as the latest “Official” data clears, the counter-currents in the economy are bolstering the faithful.  As the Excedrin kicks in, here’s what just rolled:

“Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 177,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in health care, transportation and warehousing, financial activities, and social assistance. Federal government employment declined.”

Now for the drill-down.  There is the monthly household jobs matrix over the past 10-years to context into this.  It showed an increase of 400,000+ jobs.  Of these, 393-thousand were estimated….

Here’s the “estimated” part of the CES Birth-Death Model:

The problem is less what the market readings are today (Early Futures were up a shade, anyway).  The real problem will be settled next Wednesday as the FOMC lays down its next rate benchmark. And that’s something important toi be thinking about…

After the numbers, the Wall St. Hype Machine was in high gear, but…

FOMC Looming

Trump (as Developers will) argues for lower – and a more anticipatory Fed.  Still, the Fed has bigger fish to fry, not the least of which is foreign US Debt holders dumping dollars having lost faith (to one extent or another) in our ability to lead the world.  But leadership is problematic, so we need to “go deep” for a minute.

My consigliere, (who, as a mild-mannered tax counsel for mainly Midwest empires) has been more than part-time busy keeping track of how China’s eating our lunch.

• “In 2024 China generated almost as much from renewables in as the US generated total (ouch). “

To which, our China SME (*Subject Matter Expert) reminds that as good as U.S. (CONUS) real estate is, China has a serious leg-up on us:

“China does not have the dynamic continental weather we do, as a general rule. Tornadoes are very rare, and they don’t often get hail, either.

Both high winds and large hail play hob with wind generation and solar generation. Lacking that ever possible presence of damaging weather, they can (and do) get away with massive wind farms and solar fields. Plus, they don’t give a spit about how many birds they kill with the wind farms. Here in North America, we have very different continental weather. Our weather patterns are not driven by a slow continental monsoon seasonal front passage like China’s. They really can get away with some types of infrastructure investment which are far riskier and more ephemeral over here in North America. Doesn’t change anything, but it does go far to explain why they are investing so heavily in those two types of recyclables.”

What this reduces to – ceteris paribus (all else equal) – is that even at parity on renewables, all China has to do is wait a few years.

Then “Captain Gooding” Piped Up

If the name is familiar?  See the lyrics to Yankee Doodle (who went to camp along with whom?)

The Captain is concerned about more than the SME’s climate assessment.

“Please take a gander at this excellent article:  Another Shocker: WSJ Reveals Russia Arming Massive New Rear Reserve Force.

Captain Gooding then goes deep into the how and why this matters on the Global Leadership front.

“Russia organizes a bit differently than we do. They are upgrading brigades to divisions. Three or four divisions will go into each army. (First Combined Arms Army, that sort of name. Armies are either Combined Arms or Tank Armies. So far, they only have the 1st Tank Army, all the others being COmbined Arms Armies. As they go to war, each Military District will form at least one FRONT of 4-6 armies. So, a Russian Army is roughly equivalent to a numbered US Army Corps, and a Front to a US Army Numbered Army, composed of several Corps.

Right now today, we have only one Army, Eighth Army, over in Korea. It is pretty much ossified in place, and the US I Corps in nominally it’s US Corps. But the 8th Army also theoretically controls a couple of South Korean Army Corps. Under our current construct, each of our regional combatant commands have an Army service component command, and that organization has one Army Corps more or less assigned to it. We don’t have many: I Corps is traced to INDOPACOM, III Corps to CENTCOM, XVIII Airborne Corps is global contingency, but right now mostly focused on Europe, as is the not yet fully fleshed out V Corps. (Yeah, we use Roman numerals for Corps instead of Arabic numbers.)

Back in WWII, we had another level, Army Groups, with multiple assigned Armies. We had three Army Groups in Europe in ’44 and ’45, for instance. My combat patch is (redacted) Army, which was traced to CENTCOM back in the day. It’s the Captain America shield patch. Not many officers or NCOs left in the Army who have served at Army level in a conflict. Hell, we don’t even have a full manual for Army echelons above Corps. Used to, but no longer do. On the other hand, Russia routinely practices maneuvering FRONTS as part of its annual wargames. (ZAPAD means west, for the western military district (i.e.: NATO, as the main focus.) They rotate the main military district around annually. Back in 2017, it was the Eastern Military District’s turn. They had two military districts simultaneously maneuvering multiple fronts in simulated force on force play. We haven’t had that many troops in the field at one time since the Vietnam War. Europe’s force numbers are a joke.

If Europe (NATO, more or less?) goes to war with Russia, it will not be pretty. The French shopkeepers will need to be posting wine, cheese and sausage prices in Slavic. Poland fields the only large credible force in Europe these days. But Russia can bypass around Poland and still drive westward. In fact, they’d be wise to leave Poland alone. Whether they will or not, who knows?

If full scale war breaks out this summer in the Middle East and Europe, it is likely to be very Nostradamus-like PDQ.”

About here, Ure’s decidedly slow-firing neurons begin playing back whole pages of Trout & Ries’ classic: “Positioning: the Battle for your Mind.” Which bears on point because COUNTRIES (like consumer products, people, and political agendas) all distill down to a “positioning cloud.”  In other words, they tend to become  what they say they are.  “Oooh-oh-oh, what a feeling” (car brand) while another was touting “Quality is Job 1.”

Countries – it follows – are ALSO what they SAY and how they POSITION.

Ergo, while the wild left-leaning corporate lapdog media whines about U.S. Army plans for a potential parade on Trump’s birthday call for 6,600 soldiers, AP learns, Trump (the Developer/Marketer) has to consider the Positioning battle on which National Survival could hinge. such as Russian State Media Claims Marco Rubio May Attend Putin’s Victory Parade… Which (coming May 9th) is a very biggish deal.

Further “Positioning Note”

The word Parochial comes to mind:

Parochial refers to a narrow or limited perspective, often confined to local or immediate concerns, such as those of a small community or parish. It can also describe attitudes or institutions that are insular, prioritizing their own interests over broader ones.

One of the obstacles to worldwide peace and prosperity is that Positioning enables Marketers (of economic systems, political regimes, cryptos, etc.) to STRATIFY and SEGMENT complex markets into specific PERSUASION BLOCKS.

This is all part of our Core Reality: Everything’s a Business Model.

Just at the deeper levels, Everything is a multiple-layered, interleaving Business Cake.

Which Brings Us Back to Fed

Sorry to lead you on a (hopefully) mind-expanding tour d playing field, but all this bears on markets next week because?

The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate is to promote maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. economy.

The box?  Yes, lowering rates in the short term would cheer the financial markets (and Trump).  BUT it would also speed up bond disintermediation.   Need a hint what Ure’s econospeak means?

“The speeding up of foreign U.S. bond disintermediation refers to the accelerated process where foreign investors bypass intermediaries, such as banks or brokers, to directly sell or reduce holdings of U.S. bonds, potentially impacting capital flows and the U.S. dollar.”

Consider how Future, in many ways, is analagous to computer programming.  Cause and Effect.

• IF (Fed) lowers rates
• THEN (bonds will pay less)  Poof! There’s go incentives to hold long-term.
• SO other instruments will be purchased.  BTC bubble-up?
• LEADING TO: Bonds returning to the US – the reciprocal of exported debt.
• LOWERING: purchasing power of Dollars – which we’ll be swimming in if they all return.
• REQUIRING  a greater number of lesser-valued dollars to purchase the same goods.

Which comes home as inflation.

WHICH?  Requires raising rates.

Because – and the horrible Truth is there, if you think about it:  America has been the world’s biggest ever in history exporter of  delayed inflation.  Lowering rates will (write down where you read it) lead to the greatest Depression ever – even worse than the so-called/first Great Depression.  Because the Dollar is (basis the gold and silver convertible money of 1913) just 3 percent real value and 97 percent compound debt over time due to deficit spending.

There. Feel better, now?

Ultimately, all such disasters lead to Global War – want to take the bet that America will be selling “War Bonds” within 10-years?  Or, “Radiation Recovery” bonds?  Because when the Business Model implodes, you package something else (patriotism, nationalism) to sell what you have to sell to make believe there’s an economy….

See how simple this all is when taken in small bites?

In more click-oriented media?  ‘We are the majority’: May Day marches challenge Trump’s dismantling of democracy – Raw Story.  Um….we got some serious marketing shit to get through….whatever….

Stormy Weekend

A break between fronts on tap in this part of Texas – after an inch or two this afternoon –  just enough drying time by Sunday to get a quick mowing done.  Elsewhere?  South Carolina is ,looking sketichy: Several weekend storms.  So is Georgia: Risk for strong to severe storms today, damaging wind gusts and hail possible. Then there’s Ohio…First Alert Weather Day: Here’s when strong to severe storms are possible Friday.

Daily Distractions

As Trump takes on Drudge, who needs another “state media” right? Trump signs order to cut federal funding for US public broadcasters NPR and PBS.

Say the “secret woid and a duck will fall out of the...” Han Duck-soo launches presidential bid, vowing tough but open North Korea policy | NK News

Wait!!! Now marketers are calling us whats???? Lyft rides get less tech-savvy for the aging loved ones in our lives.  (Gee, how does it feel to be an “aging loved one?” Hmm… still cheaper than the Tesla with the full auto-driving package…)

Bigger tougher Southern Border as: NM US Attorney says 82 people facing newly created criminal charge for entry along NM-Mexico border.

Blow to law-faring on climate: Trump Admin Sues to Block Blue States From Taking Fossil Fuel Companies To Court Over Climate Change.

And with BTC i9n there $96,000 zone Florida legislature approves bill making silver, gold legal tender.

Around the Ranch:  Tool Slut Confessional

Still out of stock – at least where I’ve been looking – but the new Evolution 10-inch job site table saw looks like it might be worth adding to the collection.  A video here on YT lays it out.

Now, I don’t need another saw; not really.  Two table saws, a 12″ chop saw, band saw, and a waiting for restoration radial arm saw, not counting the Sawz-all and both corded and battery-powered circ saws.  Yet, this new one has a flip-down fence support – the fence itself is gear-driven, and it has a sliding table for smaller cuts. Outfeed support…everything I want in a saw – if it will load a 3/4″ dado stack…

So, keep your eye out – they run about $475 – so we will keep clicking around. There’s a sign-up page here on the manufacturer’s site.

Just call me the Friday Dopamine Dope!

HAM RADIO DEAL OF THE DAY!  Found this on eBay this morning for $200 bucks: “This is a roughly 50 year old commercial FM broadcast radio transmitter. 2.5 KW output. Tuned to 96.9.  Needs a power tube and exciter to be made operable.  Was removed from service in working condition, tube and exciter was repurposed.”  If I were planning to build a serious linear amplifier (I have3 presently, which should keep me going…) this would be a great parts source…and in a rack – perfect for heating the man cave on  those cold winter nights on 75… Add a 4-1000 and a big-ass plate transformer  – wind some copper coils and toss in a vacuum-variable…and…. a roll-Ure-own killerwatt…

Or a “Mutt and Jeff” rig: Icom 705 xceiver and then bias and screen supplies for AB2 driving a 4-1000 to the legal limit…  (the mind wanders…)

More on ShopTalk Sunday…

Off to wonder is Israel will slam Iran this weekend – lots of “news holes” which can – sometimes – presage events….market’s running up on air…well, you know the drill.

Write when you get rich,

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