My friend, the Economic Fractalist, believes Monday could be an interesting one in Markets.  While the take over on his site is largely based on fractal economics, the secular news flow is also loaded for firing. And it may not be just rock salt.

Jobs for Sheeple

OK – super weak November jobs report from ADP this week.  And a worrisome increase in layoffs was noted in the Challenger report Thursday. But, the real center of attention (for us, being EF’s (Economic Fundamentalists) is tracking the gap between the headlined Job number and what shows in the actual database.

Today, we begin with the (establishment data) claimed stats:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment
trended up in health care, government, and social assistance. Retail trade added jobs in December, following a job loss in November.

Now we’ll give you the “good news” which is from the household side.  To us it looks even better.

Partisans pay attention!

If you are a democrat, this was a strong report.  Month-on-Month the database shows that jobs were up 478,000 in a month!  (It’s a miracle they’ll tell you…)

A republican might notice the job growth for the whole yearw was 537,000.  3-10ths of one percent YoY.  BFD, right??

Or, if you are cynical George, you notic the CES Birth-Death model ESTIMATED  2.189-million jobs into existence over the whole year, so really, it’s all part of a made-up crap shoot.

And the Markets know – Dow slipped more than 200 and the S&P down more than 30 in the futures at press time.  BTC $93,400 so it’s on banana peels,, too.

One reason is the sea-state change coming to the World of Work.  In Macroeconomic terms, only Consumers pay taxes.  Sure, Corporations tax the breaks to write off the sunk costs of research, plant and equipment, and all that.  But, in the end, the final tab is always passed along to the Consumer who buys things.

We are coming to the front stoop of a crisis without even recognizing it.  You see, A.I. has the potential to utterly collapse the Services Sector. Which, with Manufacturing imploding in America (with offshore job-jacking and extreme factory automation), the only Sector that has been a growth Godsend has been Services.

I’ll save you from digging out the calculator:  In the ADP numbers 91.8 percent of all new hiring in the latest reporting month was Services.

Strategically, it’s worth remembering the axiom: Goods Produced win wars.  Services win comforts.

Cal-Fires: 10-Days of Woe?

A hat-tip to Reader Andy this morning for his revelatory outlook toward January 20th.  Andy’s view may sound a bit John of Patmos like.  But certain dynamics are in play.

“In 3 more days it will become absolute chaos. Every man and woman for themselves. There will be hording of resources, rape, pillage and plunder, looting and crime beyond anything seen in a very long time… make the Rodney king riots look like a trip McDonald’s play-land by comparison. and nobody will be able to stop it.

Phaze 2 of the refiner’s fire is when people have no water to drink, no food to eat.. for a week, no fuel to buy because they aren’t trucking in fuel and food, and the water service is going to be rerouted to put out the fires…. no electricity, no cell service, no emergency services, the cops aint answering the phone.

Listen, There is over 800,000 Illegal Immigrants in Los Angelous County. There is over 200,000 Active Gang members in Los Angelous County alone. That is over 1 million people who don’t give a flying f about the law. On top of that there is over 100,000 homeless US citizens who have been waiting for this day.

What are they going to do when 800,000 Illegal Immigrants have gone without water and food for week. All those homeless people who had been spit on by the people who had nice houses going to do?. Wonder what are all those active gang members planning to do? When there is no water, no emergency services, no electricity, no food, no phone services? Nothing being brough in… and no emergency services?

Governor Newsome just activated 5400 National Guard to aid in the fires. That is alot like throwing a tic-tac at a 60 mph freight train to stop it.”

While sounds awful, there’s no relief in headline scans:  Palisades Fire devastates LA County, jumps in size as winds batter Southern California and Man arrested on suspicion of starting Los Angeles fire.  Man is reported to be in his 30’s and homeless. But this is only for the Kenneth fire.

Getting to near-term Future there are several ways to track what’s next. On the predictive side, Andy’s site at In 3 Days’, Time. – Shavaq.com.  The L.A. Fire website will be updated shortly, but at the official site this is where overnight was reported:

Bookmark the LAFD site here and you can skip some of the media histrionics.  Also, keep an eye on Inci-Web – the fed’s wildfire site because this is an unusually busy winter for wildfire crews.

Meanwhile California democrats have political problems being stoked by one of their own as mayor Karen Bass sends out parking enforcement to give parking tickets to people in Santa Monica as fire spreads. How much more detached can you get?  Dems with denial?  Dem Rep. Sherman: ‘Political’ to Blame L.A. Fire Budget Cuts for Impacts of Fire.  (Hmmm…where did we learn that?  You did get the “dems can do no wrong” memo, didn’t you?  Wait…maybe it was shipped to Ukraine via Poland  with the firefighting gear..2022 you say? No act is safe from political review, comrades!)

For today, even if you’re not in parched SoCal, be ready for the Climate angle to go large as WMO confirms 2024 was hottest year on record | Reuters.  Details set for release later today. But while we’ve been waiting for NYC to sink under the waves, Bummer: Black Rock Quits Net Zero Asset Managers . Follow the money?

Timing Out Hot Spots

Off in background, another aspect to the “10-days” is whether wars will break out involving China and Iran.

The next two weekends may be key to the future of Israel as Iran nuclear tensions high as Trump returns | AP News.  Iran’s calculus is likely that Slo would be a much softer play than messing with Israel when Trump’s back in office since he’s a strong supporter of  Tel Aviv.  Clock’s ticking on the mullahs.

Same – but different conditions as China’s has to be eyeing the clock too, over their plans to “re-unify” Taiwan into the Mainland CCP’s control.  Stirrings?  On the happy-talk end of things, Taiwan demonstrates sea defenses against potential Chinese attack as tensions rise with Beijing. But as CNN is repeating this morning A cut undersea internet cable is making Taiwan worried about ‘gray zone’ tactics from Beijing.

Strategically, we see another kind of warfare under development.  In the same way that drones changed the shape of aerial warfare, could we see cable attacks as a new kind of “web-isolation warfare”?  No web means no telecom and that means…no business and no money moving…  Key points in War, non?

Short Takes

Snow Passes Over as we got some rain, but no snow.  Dallas north of us is cleaning up. The “vortex” remains are about to move into the Carolinas today. New models show latest snow/ice totals expected in Upstate, SC and Western North Carolina.

Biden Medal Winners at work:  Progressive California Crime Spree Seeded by Soros.

Meanwhile, the cost of DEI continues to rise:  Woke Disney Served Eye-Opening Poll: Nearly a Quarter of Americans Have Abandoned Company.

And the right hand is slapped by the left one again: NYC Shelled Out Millions In Taxpayer Funds For Deportation Defense Cases As Migrant Crisis Crippled City.

Around the Ranch:  Progress and Planning

Let’s start with the Planning part first.  As you know, I use a dandy personal planner/ kanban board for mapping out life here.  I use one called Brisqi which has a free tier that’s very useful. Here’s what just dropped in the new release out this week:

• Card Links: You can now easily link to other cards by using card links! Simply right-click on a card, or use the options menu in the card details, and select “Copy Link”. You can then paste the link into a card’s description or comments to create a clickable reference to another card.
• Image Sizing in Descriptions: Images in descriptions are now correctly sized and can be clicked to view in a larger format.
• Custom Board Backgrounds: Set custom background images or colors directly from the Edit board dialog. Simply click the ellipsis icon (…) next to the board name to get started.
• External App Links: Markdown-formatted links to external files (using the file:// scheme) and applications now work as expected, making it easier to connect and reference other files or paths.
• Card Path in Panels: The full card path (Group name / Board name / List name) is now shown in the upcoming tasks panel and card details, giving you better context at a glance.
• Copy Color Code: Right-click on a color square to easily copy its color code

Much more powerful than running your life using Sticky-notes.  No, this is not an ad.  I’m a fan of Ash’s work.

The Progress part around here: A second ham radio transceiver is back in operation here, from my queue of radios to repair and return to the marketplace.  This one is a Swann 500 (plain, not the C or X model). Audio needs some additional work, but great fun playing “the Radio Detective.”

ShopTalk Sunday  this weekend will be all over the ham radio hobby.  I did get a delightful email back from G3RKF on the research point about whether T2FD antennas can be improved by using an inductor on the second leg of the antenna compared with a traditional (non-inductive) resistor.

After a ton of modeling – and reading several chapters of Intermediate Antenna Modeling by the late L.B. Cebik – I concluded that Universe was telling me something when an order for a Yaesu YA-30 wideband antenna could not be filled and was refunded.  (Funny how Universe guides, sometimes, ain’t it?)

Which means Sunday we’ll get into the “Off-Center-Fed Horse Tape Cage Antenna.”  OCFD-HTCA for short, lol.  Yeah, sounds geeky and all, but ham radio grown-ups will enjoy it.

Off to watch the fireworks – California’s and the Markets.

Write when you get rich,

[email protected]  (AC7X)