Memo: To All In-Patient’s of the Reality Hospital

In your treatment session today, which will feature variable markets, inconsistent leadership, and questionable modes of exchange, we will remind you of the purpose you are here.

To behold the Grand Works going on around you.  Specifically the cyclical recurrence of events.

Today is approximately July 11, 1929 in the great cyclical replay  (GCR). You will remember the treatment features – for those for you back for another Reality treatment:

1929 had:

• “permanent prosperity”
• industrial scaling optimism
• radio/consumer revolution
• retail participation surge
• leverage normalization

In this cycle’s plan, 2026 is a similar (rhyming) but inexact so as to test your recognition ability. Which, as you know, is one of the ways we measure treatment success.  Today’s treatment includes:

• AI productivity religion
• cognition scaling optimism
• retail options/speculation
• private credit excess
• passive inflow reflexivity
• “this time AI changes everything”

That’s why this current round of treatment may feel a bit uncomfortable.

If you want the closest modern analog candidate to the late-1929 “everything still looks fine” period, it may not be the crash itself yet. It may be this current:

• liquidity-driven melt-up
• narrowing leadership
• speculative AI infrastructure boom
• belief that productivity gains will outrun debt saturation

Which is exactly how late-stage bubbles usually feel., A few of you who were treated in their 1840 Bubble period may catch the similarities; even more so for 1929 returnees.

You will see in coming months that local “reality” appeared strongest right before it broke.  While we are forbidden from telling patients too much in advance, we can offer seasonal “holiday hints.”

Yes, there was a Labor Day in 1929: Monday, September 2, 1929. The Dow’s famous peak was the very next day, Tuesday, September 3, 1929, at 381.17.

In your treatment this time, we have arranged events as follows:

From July 11, 1929 to the Dow peak on September 3, 1929:  54 calendar days
55 days if counted inclusively

Using today, May 7, 2026, as the modern “July 11 equivalent”: May 7 + 54 days = June 30, 2026

Holiday spacing: Memorial Day 2026: Monday, May 25.  That is 18 days after May 7, and 36 days before the analog June 30 top.

Fourth of July 2026: Saturday, July 4 That is 58 days after May 7, and 4 days after the analog June 30 top.

Market-holiday nuance: since July 4, 2026 falls on a Saturday, the market holiday would likely be observed Friday, July 3, making the analog top about 3 days before the observed July 4 market holiday.  A “flashy Fourth” is thus possible.

Staff supports you in your work today.  Now go get after it.

/s/ Dr. O.I. Barpht

Reality Check 1:  Challenger Job Cuts

Statistically, it has been an “in-bounds” week:  Labor JOLTS report was good, the ADP picture was solid enough. And now the Challenger job cuts report looks OK, too:

“U.S.-based employers announced 83,387 job cuts in April, up 38% from the 60,620 job cuts recorded in March. It is down 21% from the 105,441 cuts announced during the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas

April’s total is the third highest since 2009: 105,441 job cuts recorded in April 2025 and 671,129 in April 2020. So far this year, employers have announced 300,749 job cuts, down 50% from the 602,493 cuts recorded through April 2025.”

On the news,  Dow futures were holding up 70-80.  BTC around $81,000.  Gold and silver up, oil down.

Along with it, the newest Unemployment Filings data can be taken as the “spoonful of sugar makes the medicine go down…”

While Mary’s popping, oil has come down more and while that should be good for market, a pause for refreshments is in order. But no ice water…

Productivity Numbers

The reality check here is whether AI can keep up appearances of real work being done while people piss-away time on social and shopping at work…

“Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 0.8 percent in the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 1.5 percent and hours worked increased 0.7 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annualized rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter of 2026.

Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting a 3.1-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 0.8-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 1.2 percent over the last four quarters.”

Your mileage may vary.

Reality Check 2: The Bout of Drought

How dry we is? 10.14 inches of rain, year-to-date at Tyler, Texas.  Same period last year? 20.97 inches. So were’s running

and you’ll remember banking on drought is what drove the swamp cooler decision in the grow-room here. Drier air (from less rainfall) make swamp coolers work better. But double-check the data as we explained here in the “swamp cooler rethink” discussion a while back.

Come to think of it, in 2024 we had 31.23 inches at Tyler so about a third of a wet year in the gauge so far.  This is when prepping “rain catchment” turns into “rain worship.”  Dance, if you must.

Climate shills, though, drive us to drink. Alert: In dramatic climate update, Al Gore warns of impending global cooling!  Hmm.  “Everything’s a Business Model” in the current treatment plan.

Reality Check 3: About to Get Out

Now let’s talk about how Iran used “drought potential” – as in attack on desalination plants – as the existential power play against its neighborhood: Stunning Reason for Trump War Plan Reversal Exposed.

Without the Saudis, we’d have holes in the sky. Without water, there would be holes in the Saudis.

Reality Bites

More “hospital food” here:

The Brits are busy today demonstrating how to “immigrate yourself out of a  country.” As Polls open in UK local elections seen as a verdict on Keir Starmer’s leadership.  His what?

Thank your lucky stars you don’t own part of a weed grow operation, huh? FBI raids office of top Democratic lawmaker in corruption probe.

And STILL the Epstein case clicks along: Jeffrey Epstein’s handwritten ‘suicide note’ finally made public.  Still, midterm elections are coming, and both sides need marketing material. But around here, Reality matters more: For the top 10–20 percent of earners, the U.S. can still be one of the best places on Earth. For the middle and lower-middle class, several northern/western European countries, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore-type systems often deliver a better daily-life package: health care, safety, vacation time, transit, lower stress, and longer life expectancy.

Data Says:  We aren’t competitive anymore.

Mid-Course Correction Drivers

Up your Gas: Triple A reports the national average jug of unleaded is reeling in $4.558 today.  Last year it was $3.154. We infer this is a cornerstone of president Trumps MAWA plan: Make Americans Walk Again.

Bruising for the Cruising: Hantavirus ship passenger tells NBC News ‘we were not well informed’. Huh?  How many times do we have to repeat? Humans are the main vector of death. Cars, Boats, Airplanes — they ALL elevate risk.  Why do you think we hide-out in the deep piney woods?

At the Ranch: Going the Way of Bar Food

50-some years back America had much better bar food than these days.

I remember as a young rock ‘n roll big city news director having lunch at Latitude 47.  There with a world-renowned marine biologist (whose initials are TAG), I would watch as he dissected the fresh shrimp that were served with the shells still on.

Two martinis into lunch (which was OK because my first morning newscast was almost 8 hours earlier with the 5 AM ‘cast) our attention shifted from shrimp to Sharon.  Best bartender ever to walk the Earth and a dead-ringer for the Little Annie Fanny cartoons in Playboy of the era. Well, except Sharon was brunette.  Otherwise? Perfect match.

I still like a plate of shrimp with the afternoon glasses of wine with Elaine. But with age, Tag’s lessons in peel-to-eat are largely forgotten. I assure you, the shrimp, Sharon, and Shamu are not.

Age changes all of us I suppose.  The Argentinian large red shrimp at Wally World are tails off and de-veined.  Less work – and a hell of a lot neater.  Gone too is the taste for the Lat 47 cocktail sauce.  But we get by with a blend of ketchup and horseradish (or Taco Bell extra hot) sauce and somehow survive being in the woods. 200 miles from real seafood.

Now Let’s Talk Bar Food

That’s the point I’m working up to.  America’s gotten messier – and we’ve lost a good deal of our “class” in all this averaging-down we’ve been doing.

Much of Elaine’s singlehood was lived in Phoenix where she recalls the nachos as being very good. Even today, they remain the second most popular bar food in the country.

A fair number of neighborhood bars back-when had very good hamburgers and the French fries?  None better.  Thick, hand cut (none of this squeeze pipe, flash-frozen crap) and  flash-fried to a medium-dark brown in super-heated oil. With any luck that would have been lard. Which may be illegal today.

Fries ran number three back in the day, with burgers coming in fourth.

Nowadays, Mozzarella sticks are holding down the fifth slot. Followed by pizza.  Back in the Seattle of the pre-socialist invasion, the burgers at the neighborhood bar down from the Ben Bow in West Seattle gave some real burger competition.

But the fuller menu at the Ben Bow was made delightful when the lights all dimmed and the sound of a storm at sea was piped in. Complete with lightning flashes. Bright enough you could find your popcorn with it. Three drinks in, you’d best remain seated.  The effects could be disorienting.

The Tides Tavern, over one of the Narrows bridges from Tacoma, had a dandy high meat, extra cheese pizza with occasional onions and whatever else was handy. Olives, dead fish (anchovies) and old cart parts, I swear. Not The Pizza Company, but a solid runner-up.

Elaine remembers the cocktail pepperoni of the era.  I was one of Art Oberto’s early beef jerky fans. Long before the “newists” came out with teriyaki jerky. Rainier Valley to Kent – who knew what would happen?

Not sure why the quintessential bar pickle is on my mind so much today. Maybe because a fresh box of Van Holten singles (huge dills) showed up via USPS Wednesday.

The pickled eggs, the jerky and the pepperoni don’t even make the cut anymore in research.  When I looked at what survived? Tater tots, chili, Jalapeño poppers, and Mac & cheese bites, which explains a great deal of where we’ve gone wrong.

A few years back, I forget the occasion, G2 was about to dig in to one of those “messy” foods on the menu.  He hauled out a pair of nitrile gloves and geared up accordingly. Which brings me to the point.

We can keep eating latter-day bar pickles, or we can buy a box of gloves and pretend wings aren’t a symptom. But they are. If lunch now requires PPE, civilization really has slipped a notch.

[Dr. O.I. Barpht tells Reality Hospital alums: “civilizations decay by normalization.” Please make a note of it.]

Write when you get rich,

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