Not quite the final column of the year, but 2024 is quickly heading down the drain.  A few economic highlights remain. Like the International Trade figures (hang on a sec.).  Then next week before the balls drop (ahem…) there’s the Dallas Fed numbers mid-morning Monday.  BYOND (bring your own NoDoz). You’ll need to save your strength for the Case-Shiller housing numbers Tuesday.

We have managed to remain neutral financially for the year. Losses in one category were offset (and then some) in others. Not point creating taxable events at this age.

2024 seems destined to be my last year of 60-hour workweeks.  I am swearing off and promise to “hold 40-hours as the limit in 2025.  Which is actually a bit misleading.  I’ve been mulling keeping the same schedule and just whacking content back to about 500-words.  Yes, the 1,800 – 2,300 word columns do take more time.  Especially if they are proofed.

Prepping 4-25

I had to kid reader D’Lynn for falling for the “retail sales for the holiday were up 3.8 percent story.” Because the Fed growth of M2 (basis Nov-Nov) was 3.7-some percent.  Experience argues that getting ahead in 2025 will be “just another elevator ride.”

I don’t explain this very well,  or often, but it’s a useful tool when considering the economy. When I was in grad school (1996, or so) doing the “late-in-life” degree, my faculty advisor explained that best he could figure it, there were “Two flavors of Economics” being served.

The conventional – mainstream – is all those formulas pumped out in Fed papers.  But there’s a kind of “hidden mechanics of it all” and we loved The Elevator Model.

Imagine the economy acts like getting on an elevator. On January 1st for 2025, say.

We’re all going to work our asses off.  Putting in 0 to 3,000 hours of labor.  Dutifully, the government will report the passing of “each floor as we go up.”  The first floor passed will be January, the third will be March, and the ninth one September.  Next year at this time, we will all get out on the 12th floor.

And that, Dear Reader, is where the “shocker is.”

“Hey!  This is the Same floor I got on back in January!!!  WTF!!!???”

We will all (statistically, about 97 percent, anyway) find ourselves on about the same floor we got in on a year from now.

Because in reality, while the “sales are going up” the “purchasing power is going down.”  Such that AT THE END OF THE YEAR – THERE’S LITTLE (IF ANY) TANGIBLE GAINS TO SHOW FOR IT.

Con-Job ’25

A few people?  They will ride the Big Picture better than us wee tykes.  They will have poured money into stocks when they were at their recent lows.  April 22nd this year, our Aggregate index was at 42,468.19.  When the close hit December 16th, it had climbed to 52,470.42. That’s more than 23-1/2 percent.  When those people  get off the elevator, they will be miles ahead.

But what’s not fully revealed is that for every trade, there is a counter-party. While Dow Theory means less than it did in more agrarian times, the Dow Transport Index peaked at Thanksgiving. Since then it is down about 9-percent.

Coincident to that, Joe Granville’s On-Balance Volume has been dropping, too.  A look at money flows out of the Dow reveals OBV running seriously to the downside on the down days. Only minor real money coming in in the Santa Rally, so far.

A.I. Bubble Deflating?

Then there’s the Magnificent Seven and that “whole A.I. thing.”  Do we really expect it to last into 2025?  A little way, sure.  But pile in now?  A much tougher choice.  You see, over time, humans are due for replacement.

Our West Coast Consigliere has been kind enough to read me in to a very papered group a correspondents.  Most of the people in this floating email world have one (or more) PhD’s.  And excuse the length here, but this was so good (from one of the contributors who we’ll call Bob) that it screamed for wider circulation:

“Google Gemini has recently surpassed Chat GPT in capability. Chat GPT 4.0, Google Gemini and other Large Language Model AI in training use today are simply the input/output, communication module or user interface. Generative AI is top of mind for many but the AI revolution will come from multiple integrated AGENTS.  AI must become reliably expert on specific subject matter with the ability to discern fact from fiction, story from true story.  Agents meeting this criteria are under development now. The implementation and cooperative integration of these agents will have a huge impact on productivity and employment.  You can see the progress made with driver-less vehicle services such as Waymo in CA.  Market adoption of AI will accelerate as energy requirements and storage are met and AI is empowered with mobility and HANDS!

Here is one list of 400+ improving AI agents and the list is expanding rapidly.  New agents such as HVAC, Airframe & Powerplant, House Keeping, Personal Protection and many others are under development in anticipation of mass produced bipedal robots.

Visit this site:  AgentOps.ai

Categorized list of 400+ AI Agents by Agen.cy and AgentOps.ai

Categories:

• Coding
• Productivity
• General Purpose
• HR
• Science
• DIY/Build Your Own
• Sales
• Research
• Assistant
• Design
• Analytics
• Marketplace
• Business Intelligence
• Marketing
• Chatbots

—— This is happening faster than anyone forecast. We’ll soon exceed AI with internet write capability as bipedal robotics provide hands and physical mobility to AI agents. There are over a dozen hardware manufacturers working on humanoid robotics with an eye toward mass production.”

To the list, you can add engineering, law, and medicine in short order, as well.  AI is coming for us all.

What Was Lost in 2024?

We again pissed away a whole year with no progress.  Until, like Hunter Biden, you got that “get out of jail card” from Pops.

The Bigger Botch was failing to notice how much further behind we have gotten.  Chinese Startup Debuts World’s First Mass-Produced Humanoid Robot at WAIC | Nasdaq.

Yes, that’s right.  We are being replaced.  Stupid humans that we are, we not only have missed the arrival of our replacements, but we are celebrating and investing in more replacements.

Sorry, this just doesn’t make sense.

But MANY bright people got 2024 wrong.  Take Elon Musk, for example.  Yes, he’s climbed in the sack with the Trump regime inbound and good for him.  And sure, he’s a genius engineer, investor, and Rogan guest. But even the smart people “get a few things wrong.”  Like Musk’s fascination with going to Mars, for example.

Mars is already broken.  There is no fishing, no golf, no hikes without supplementary air.  No shopping, no crafts, shops, or grand cuisine.

Not to sound like a Luddite here, but if there’s nothing there (starting with good air and water) then why go?  Why are we so freaking addicted to imperialism?  It’s starts at home – if your neighbor puts in a fence that intrudes 2-inches into your property, you lawyer-up. If you want to build a home, the City and the County hold divine power over building permits.  Countries get pissy, too.  Ukraine is warring on Russia mostly (far as we can tell) because the historical grain farmers toward the Crimea dare to speak Russian.

Unable to sort out imperialism at home, do we need to export our current collection of bullshit somewhere else?

Our family isn’t gun nuts, but I own a few legal guns and plenty of ammo.  It’s not because I’m paranoid.  It’s because our culture has spawned meth-heads and thieves who will suffer no remorse at our potential losses – right down to Life itself.  Well, Pappy didn’t raise no fool. When crime got into business models, we armored up.

Everything is a Business Model is our founding concept here.  Unfortunately, this has been discovered by cartels, Deep State actors, terrorists, and radical fringe groups.

If I were an alien species (like the plasmoids may be), I’d put out the word pronto: “Keep your shit home.”

Oh! Missed the little point that plasmoids may be a life form?  Here, let’s savor some of that find Google Iterative A.I. for a sec.

A “Minimal Cell System created in Laboratory by Self-Organization” refers to a scientific experiment where researchers have successfully produced a basic, simplified cell-like structure within a lab environment, where the components of the cell spontaneously arranged themselves into a functional unit without the need for external manipulation, demonstrating the concept of “self-organization” in biological systems.

Key points about this concept:
Self-organization:
This means that the components of the “cell” (which could include molecules like lipids, proteins, and nucleic acids) naturally come together and form a structured unit due to inherent physical and chemical interactions, similar to how crystals form from a solution.
Minimal cell:
This implies that the created structure is very basic, containing only the essential components necessary for a cell-like function, potentially allowing researchers to study the fundamental building blocks of life.
Laboratory setting:
This research is conducted in a controlled lab environment, where scientists can precisely manipulate conditions to observe and study the self-assembly process.

Example research:
Plasma-based “cells”: Some scientists have reported creating plasma-based structures within a lab that exhibit certain cell-like characteristics, such as self-containment and dynamic behavior, by utilizing electrical discharges in a controlled environment.

Significance:
Understanding life’s origins:
Studying minimal cell systems could provide insights into how the first primitive cells might have formed on early Earth.
Synthetic biology applications:
This research could pave the way for designing artificial cells with specific functions for medical or industrial purposes.

So yes, flesh and blood likely have plenty of competition already; Drake’s Equation, and all that.  Do we need to invent more?

THE Problem with AI

It’s simply that machinery, computers, the coming artifical intelligence (especially embodied in expert systems) coupled with robotics does what?

It holds preferential tax status over Humans.

Not wanting to sound cranky here, but when a marriage breaks, you can be f*cked by the legal system for decades. Garnished to the gutter. Anti-slavery statutes ignored.

But when a machine breaks?  You can write if off in a single year.  If you aren’t aware of Section179.Org – The Official Website of Section 179, bookmark it and prosper.

This “machines over humans” began back in river-power and steam days.  And it’s only gotten worse.

Say you want to invent a new whizzy and you’re a company.  You either write off the expense in a single year – or if its bigger?  Spread it out over a few per the Tax Code.

But now say you go on a “date” with another human.  The financial payoff could be the same (or greater).  But, can you write off the cost of your research?  I mean, that’s the point of dating, right? To invent a little “happily ever after”?  Nope, can’t do it. Women can’t write off the fashion and war paint, unless they are on camera or in “acting” (they all are, but that’s a different topic).  Same for guys: Can’t write off the costs of dinner and drinks, can you?

No, the world is already Tax-Stacked to punish humans.  Tax the machines based on the number of hours they work per year.  Own a machine that replaces a human?  The Machine Owes Income Tax. And it’s only by getting crystal clear on Human Primacy that we can return to being stewards of the planet and getting things back in balance. You are a last place tax dope.

If that sounds a little too tree-huggerish and Luddite to you?  Have a good trip to Mars, take the freaking robots with you. Enjoy the chemical food and airless golf.

OK, Back on Earth

The Trade and Inventory numbers, then.

So yes. We all helped to dig the international trade deficit deeper.

Early Futures had the Dow down about 150, the S&P down 20 and who cares about A.I. (We’re still buying solar panels because it won’t be long now before humans will get “browned out” by server farm demand.  Having has the genius to invent machines and then destroying the Earth to serve them. Comical, really.

Proof of Unworthy Humans

Where we see a surprisingly good percentage of humans keep “putting ’em on the board for Entropy.”

The Madness Contagion spreads: Pregnant woman stabbed 14 times by pizza delivery driver over $2 tip: Police.

Like investing in litigation? Lyft says San Francisco overcharged it $100 million in taxes, according to lawsuit.

South Korea’s president was not able to “duck” impeachment: South Korea’s acting President Han Duck-soo impeached by opposition lawmakers.

Rational Concerns:  Let’s suppose (for a minute) that a few people in China are rational.  Then, ask yourself, would they be building things they are not planning to use?  China Launches Giant Amphibious Assault Warship for Growing Navy.  Take Oahu, leave the Big Island for us, take California and half of Oregon, and we’ll negotiate Mexico and the Canal…

Speaking of The Ditch: Panama President Dismisses Donald Trump Threat: ‘Nonsense’.

News as an “industry” has not come to terms with A.I. coming for all the reporter’s jobs.  We can hardly wait for the fully CGI news anchors to be introduced because then all the journalism schools will close and….wait. This was going somewhere.  Here, maybe??  STILL DROPPING: Ratings at CNN and MSNBC Way Down and Showing No Signs of Recovery – FOX News Only Network Still Growing.

Around the Ranch:  Surveillance Delights

Sometimes – like over the holidays (this week and next) – I get to take a break and just watch the surveillance network around the place. (Paranoid people need a break, too, understand.)

Alexa piped up with a “The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch….”  So a click and up comes BlueStacks with the Android app for camera control.  Here’s how the first look down the gun range appeared from out behind my office:

You can make out the shooting table, just to the left of the center tree.  (It looks tilted but it’s actually level and downhill to the targets.

OK, notice how the RVR (runway visual range) dropped as the heavy rains came in:

And then the damnedest thing: a Portal opened!!!

Try not to limp.  Why?  Well, by now, one of your legs should be longer than the other.

Because I’ve been pulling it.  At least in this part.

Here’s to finding a better writer in 2025.

Write when you get rich,

[email protected]