Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street bank, has raised the odds of a downturn in the country’s economy following Donald Trump’s massive tariff hike. The risk of a recession has now risen to 45% on the heels of disastrous tariffs.

In a research note titled “US Daily: Countdown to Recession” distributed earlier today, Goldman increased the probability of a downturn in the country’s economy in the next 12 months to 45%, up from 35% the week prior. It also slashed its 2025 growth forecast for the US economy from 1.0% to 0.5%.

The bank said its projections assume the US might roll back some tariffs following talks with trade partners this week. However, “if most of the April 9 tariffs do take effect… we expect to change our forecast to a recession,” the note warned. –RT

This most recent revision follows Trump’s April 2nd announcement of a minimum 10% tariff on all imports and “reciprocal” duties of 11% to 50% targeting dozens of nations with what he called unfair trade imbalances. The European Union is set to be hit with a 20% tariff, and China with 34% when the hikes take effect on April 9. Beijing has already announced mirror tariffs on United States goods, while other countries condemned the move and vowed countermeasures.

Tariffs Bring Pain Without Gain

“Financial conditions tightened more aggressively than we had expected in response to the White House’s announcement of its ‘reciprocal’ tariff and the Chinese government’s announcement of its retaliatory tariffs,” Goldman analysts said in the note, explaining the revision. They added that “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty” following Trump’s tariff announcements will “likely depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”

Prepare For An Economic Emergency Or Recession

Tariffs impact the end consumer the most, and the cost of goods will rise. Even the so-called “American-made” goods touted by republicans are often made with tools or parts purchased from other countries. That will still cause the prices to rise, hitting the consumer the hardest.

Take the time to prepare for the possibility of an economic recession. Tariffs are going to hit everyone, whether one believes that they will or not. They are going to impact the cost of goods, even those sold and made in the U.S.