Bashing head into wall, trying to troubleshoot website issues.  So if this gets cranky sounding, it’s just me (I’ll get into it later in the Around the Ranch part…)

Best stick to the grindstone in moods like this:  So let’s start with GDP:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5 percent. The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

Now, backed up with GDP we also have the latest Fed Money supply figures to ponder – because this is the stuff that will push around the Velocity of Money at M2.

M2?  Didjah Say M2???

Here’s “math that matters” to us:  Seasonally adjusted M2 this week is 22,115.4  where a year ago it was holding 21,098.0.  You divide the ‘big one by the little one’ and presto!  The MONETARY INFLATION rate.  Which is?  4.822 percent.

LAST MONTH’s numbers were 22,021.4  and  21,065.6.  If your pencil hasn’t fallen in your coffee yet, it should. Because last month, the annual rate of monetary inflation was?   4.53725 percent.

Think back now:  Who told you “Smells like there’s a stealth QE in play, don’t it?”  Um…yeah… well, so the Fed has cranked it up a notch.

If the year-on-year GDP is not up to this, (it won’t be), the difference will hurt. Your standard of living, nar as we can figure it, gets dialed back a percent, or so a year.  Reason?  To keep you in check.

See most people have one big asset in Life – their home.  When you don’t own it outright, it allows you to leverage – making money off inflation. I’m too grumpy this morning to roll through the whole litany of factors, but people who have to rent for a living as sheep and people who own homes have a leg up on them.  But it’s all very hush-hush, you see?  Because no one from IRS or whoever bothers to tell you that “If you don’t own an inflation-adjusting asset, you’re screwed over time.”

Well, this is time and now, Old Uncle George lays the second layer of goo on this morning’s crap sandwich, right?  Profits…

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 4.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent in the first quarter. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 4.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in the first quarter.

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $65.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $90.6 billion in the first quarter. (When M2 goes up, it ALL goes up…)

And because we have so much fun (going blind from financial jerkoffs like this) let’s heap on the dismal with a report on new unemployment filings, shall we?

Let me see: Nvidia was a nothing burger so today we’re off to Nasdaq futures flat as Nvidia slips on China market uncertainty…God this is fun, ain’t it?

Let’s hit the headlines and see if we can line up a few more reasons to sign up for rehab, shall we?

Whee! (‘re screwed)

Will the COVID-19 fallout ever end? Fired CDC director says RFK ‘weaponising public health’ as more leaders quit agency.  Little coverage of the counter-notion, namely that RFK, Jr is simply trying to turn medicine into health not a money-machine for big pharma and insurance execs, but hey…we just report ’em as they roll… (We are still pissed that insurance – once  meant to spread risk, has been greedified and turned into a way to milk, not risk share…but like I said earlier, I’m grumpy today.)

Gee, these waterfront property acquisitions are a bitch sometimes, as any Developer in Chief knows:  No end in sight to Gaza war as Trump discusses day-after with Blair and Jared Kushner.

You’ll have to pardon our referencing Truesome and Grump as the clickbait tag team for the foreseeable future:  Gov. Gavin Newsom teases that ‘coin’ is coming to online store.

If you haven’t figured the world has tipped and is now in free-fall, might you want to gander this? The Trans Shooter Epidemic Exposed: Deep State’s Sinister Cover-Up and Why Patriots Must Shine the Light to End the Madness…  Instead…let’s not mention the elephant in the room, right?  According to federal officials and court records, the suspect, 23-year-old Robin Westman, is a transgender woman who legally changed name from Robert to Robin as a minor (petition filed 2019; granted 2020). Police have not tied gender identity to the motive.  Of course not… For now there’s no link, but we are also mindful that “peer review” is a process hijack that has left the world spinning in, oh, global warming and oh so much more….

But rather than plain speaking, how about we just turn the war coverage back on? Rescuers race to reach victims after Russian strikes pound Kyiv, killing at least 15, including four children.

There, all better….world back to normal.

ATR:  Starlink, Straight Keys and BS Dependencies

Up since 2AM and working on the website today.  This is getting to be a pattern…

I was sitting down to work on the site again most of Wednesday.  Turned on ads again (sick of paying server hosting out of the beer money.  I was head deep into it: trying to keep the whole digital shitteree running long enough to get something finished, and what happens?

Starlink decides to burp.

The feed goes sideways, but not in the “in Ure face” way.  Subtle-like.  The logins start tripping over each other, and I’m left wondering if I’m in some new tech-war crossfire between Microsoft’s Edge and Firefox. It’s not the first time, either. The pattern is becoming clear: Starlink throws me curve balls, Viasat isn’t much better but it’s a different set of weather interrupts, so I can deal with that.  Meanwhile, the old DSL landline circuit? Rock solid. Slow, sure, but steady as a metronome. Or, a mushroom.

That’s where the comparison started to chew on me.

See, I’ve been on the air (doing the ham radio thing) for more than sixty years with a straight key in my hand, sending code across oceans. Sixteen words per minute, sure, I can chat at twice that, but for writing things down, 16-20 words a minute is lush.  Steady as a heartbeat. Japan, Europe, South America — you name it, I’ve worked it. Even worked countries that went obsolete, too: Rhodesia, Burma and there was more…

Those signals got through because the fundamentals were solid. The wire was copper, the current was steady even when bounced on the F2 Layer; the radio was built with iron and glass. You could trust the glow of a tube and the hum of a transformer. You didn’t need a firmware update to make it work. When you “pounded the brass” the whole table changed tone – that’s what happens when an old school linear amplifier stutters gulping current on key down…

Now look at the digital world I have to live in. Dear God.

Three browser updates, a plug-in to the Urban or Peoplenomics Content Management Software? The whole system can crash and burn on a dime.  When it does, it’s a time-sink.

This week, a plugin sneezed, and my site feed disappeared.

The operating system decides it’s time to “improve security,” and suddenly I can’t log in without fighting through a dozen prompts.

Listen now and you’ll hear it: I’m sounding an ALARM!

We’ve built a society on top of layers of dependencies, each one a potential point of failure, and we call it Progress. Uppity comes with Updates,  It’s like…oh shit…having to change a hub cap on your car every other day just to be able to drive it safely.

Crazy!

The old rigs never lied about what they were. They either worked or they didn’t, and if they didn’t, you could smell the resistors warming to the smoke point. Or see the plate glowing a nice dull red on key down.  Today? It’s all invisible errors buried under invisible layers, and you just sit there hoping the satellite handoff doesn’t boot you out of your own dashboard. Good luck getting real, actual help from Support.

But I don’t get MAD about it, anymore,. It’s kind of hilarious, really. On a good day, I can work Japan with a straight key about the same speed most people text. That’s half a century of experience, and the signal still gets through, because physics hasn’t changed. But put me on Starlink with two browsers open, trying to update UrbanSurvival, and suddenly it’s like threading a needle in the dark. Though I could roll with “pissing in a hurricane” if you’re a traditionalist. The irony writes itself. But honestly? It shouldn’t.

Let’s focus on The Big Lie.

We’re supposed to be living in an era of high-speed, high-tech, always-on connectivity. And sure, the bandwidth is there — when it works. But the reliability? The trust factor? Not even close. I never had to wonder if my old Eico or the old Johnson Pacemaker was secretly at war with my Hallicrafters. They just did their jobs. Today, Edge and Firefox seem to trip over each other like two drunks in a bar fight, and I’m left holding the bill. Yeah, it’s happened a time or two, sure, but now?

Maybe that’s the lesson: the more complex the systems, the more fragile they become.  I’m still coping well because I moved on to Domain Walking years ago.  I see the complexity bubble for what it is.  Not a “digital Savior” more like the electric can opener that keeps not working when you’re hungry and in a hurry.  You had one, right?  I know, you don’t need me to riff on my Downsizing book.

We’ve built this whole digital economy on a stack of updates, patches, and kludges. You know life has passed you by when you’ve gone from a “hot fix” being a beautiful woman in a bar to something Microsoft force-feeds after the 3878 SSD update mess.

It’s all going to go. Just a matter of when.  I reckon it will be fast. Meanwhile, the old boat anchors in the ham shack will still be lighting up the bands long after the satellites fall out of the sky. That’s not nostalgia talking, that’s just a plain assessment of what’s reliable and what’s not.

Like some damn fool, here I went through the ritual this morning. I sat down for pre-op — update this, reboot that, virus definitions changed? Clear the cache, trash the spam directories and those can all kiss my butt.  The whole time I’m praying it all holds together just one more day.

Old is good, coming up on 80 in a couple of years. I’ll still remember a time when all it took was a key, a hunk of wire, and a little patience. Maybe a hammer. But in the end – no time at all? The signal always got through.

Today’s digital hangover? A story of dependencies and bullshit. The more we depend on invisible layers, the more bullshit we get. And the HTML Highwaymen, Source Code Snipers, and…oh, what’s the point.

If you want proof, just ask my straight key. Fifty years on, it’s still the most dependable connection I’ve got. And if I need a hot fix? I’m going to Elaine.  We see how Bill’s plan’s working out.

Write when you get rich (assuming we have one more round of digital daylight ahead…)

Holiday’s coming. I’ll be the guy at the package store with an armload,

George@Ure,net