TL;DR: Fed faces three problems this week: NFIB optimism may clash spending, while PPI and CPI inflation risks rise. Rally to chill? Plus a lesson in Ure family wisdom.

Three Problems for the Fed

Common Wisdom on the street is that the Fed will lower on the 17th by  at least a quarter and maybe even a half point.  But we think the rally will stall and “roll-over” in here for some very good reasons.

Reason #1:  The Fed’s closely-watched Consumer Debt figures came out Monday (late) and they were not very encouraging.  There are three lines to this snip: Top line is annual change in consumer debt as a percent.  Second line is the change in debt on things like credit cards.  The last line is non-revolving debt – things like mortgages that are harder to walk-out on.  Take a looL

This scream at us: a) Even though the number is seriously “rear-view” (reflecting July spending) the increase in debt may have been pushed up by impacts of Tariff yo-yo’s.  People may have been “locking in ahead of time.”  Regardless, the actual spending is high enough to push inflation.  Supporting this, line 2 b) says “buy while it’s cheap – before tariffs ratchet up” was running hard.  The third line c) says while spending was on a roll for consumer goods, the Big Stuff – representing commitment to “investing in the future” was in trouble.

NFIB Data is Another Problem

One (real) reason for the Fed to lower would be if Small Businesses was in trouble.  Well, except the sheet comes off that issue as the outlook for “small Main Street” actually looks very good:

“WASHINGTON, D.C. (Sept. 9, 2025) – The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.5 points in August to 100.8, nearly 3 points above the 52-year average of 98. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, four increased, four decreased, and two were unchanged. The increase in those expecting real sales to be higher contributed the most to the rise in the Optimism Index. The Uncertainty Index fell by 4 points to 93 but remained well above the historical average. The decline was due to a decrease in uncertainty about financing expectations and planned capital expenditures. “

After employing so much PR juice to peddle 2 percent inflation targets, the Fed’s looking progressively sillier by the day.  That’s before we get to:

Two Problems Still Hanging

The first will drop about this time tomorrow – the Produce Price Index report.  Under “normal rate lowering regimes” the Fed would be eyeing this for weakness.  But, thanks to tariff (and tariff-talk) feed through – plus things like Chinese slow-rolling rare earth magnets, for example) we think there’s a fair change of “upside surprise in PPI.

If it comes in that way, it will feed-forward into prices 60-days out, and longer.  We’ll have the “Told You So” card ready to wave just in case.

Thursday’s when things can really blow up.  The Fed’s widely ballyhooed “CPI less food and energy” may be the fourth problem in line for the Fed to address.  This one? We don’t expect it to come down at all – and maybe even tick up a bit.

Feathers on the Scales?

Tossing free (or nearly so) money on raging fires of an economy doesn’t sound like a great plan to us.  Yet when we looked at commodities and crypto today, there was no sign of decline – yet.

Bitcoin has popped back over $113,000 briefly.  The price of gold (POG) was making a serious run at $3,700 – which will be new all-time highs.  Silver has been similarly zooming.  And except for Lumber futures (see the slowing in home-building) there’s not much commodity support for the “bottom falling out.”

Granted, we expect that by the end of the week, we will have a major downturn in play – and it’s likely to carry over into next week.  See, softness in the market is the Big Stick the media can be sold on. Tomorrow is a Bank Settlement day and as we have told you, the smallest policy waffles there get magnified.

Real or not, the next three days might be a nosebleed.  One excuse to give the Fed to follow-through on the pressure to lower would be a nose-bleeder episode in markets.  Think of it as Human Sacrifice at the alter inside the Church of the Almighty Dollar.

Blood needs to flow, though…and that’s be how to manage it.  A Big Event – coincidentally timed might fit.  Or, the Fed could join other branches of government.

Admit they are lying tools.  And we’re OK with that.  Out here in our hide-out ion the woods, not some $2.5 billion monument to egos, honesty is still the best policy.

We may be the lone hold-outs.

Wrong!  No Matter What

We keep waiting for someone to explain to us what’s really going on.  Elaine and I watched the Dad Saves America interview with Eric Weinstein last night.  Hoping for a moment of clarity.  While Weinstien was spot-on with his observations, where it leads isn’t making sense yet.  Who our “string-pullers” isn’t clear – and the mishmash o headlines?  Hard to sort out like when one meme is Trump’s a Dictator while the other is calling him Savior of America.

The headlines?  All depends on how you read those.

One liberal view holds that Trump’s attack on Chicago masks a craving for acceptance from US elite.  But, in case you missed it, that same fellow won a biggie this week as Justices uphold ‘roving patrols’ for immigration stops in L.A. Now, mix in a good number of Blow City residents are in favor of law and order…as in Most Chicagoans SUPPORT National Guard Troops in Their City – and it’s like trying to reassemble a bowl of bread pudding… (uh…without the rum/rsaisin sauce, thanks…)

And there’s a strong anti-crime angle to Trump’s actions as overnight US federal authorities arrest hundreds of Sinaloa Cartel members, seize drugs in nationwide operation,

There’s good reason to have fears about personal safety in America, nowadays, too.  Why there’s even a whiff that the Ukraine War could be spilling back to sources as Ukrainian refugee killed in random North Carolina train stabbing.

Not helping?  Reselling of Trump hate.  The recycling highlight of this news cycle is US lawmakers release signed ‘birthday book’ note from Trump to Epstein.  That’s the liberal pull-out.  Didn’t see a lot of angst (or new details) about Euro Royals and bureaucrats, did you?  OK, a few references: UK envoy to Washington once called Epstein ‘best pal’ in birthday note but not like the whole enchilada, right?

Nothing-Burgers

Get ’em while they’re not – because really maybe they’re not…

As interest rates might hang on data, we have to wonder who’s minding the statistical store? Staffing Crisis Unfolds at BLS With a Third of Leadership Jobs Now Vacant.  (Kids will play while the folks are away?  Might we see actual Truth Leaks as a result?  Another reason to cinch-it-up while we wait on the FOMC.

Our “new word” of the day is Nepaltism.  As in Behind Nepal’s deadly protests over social media ban lies anger over corruption and nepotism.

Lesson in “blowing” sa metaphor: Israel warns of ‘mighty hurricane’ in Gaza if Hamas does not surrender.

Fortunately, we have its twin – a metaphor on blowing:  Hurricane Kiko weakens into a tropical storm but still…

Though a “nothingburger” for now, there’s a p[ossible Truth Bomb down the road as Kennedy fired CDC vaccines chief for ‘malpractice’; FDA to release data on vax deaths – World Tribune.

Abnd more than a decade back, we warned Peoplenomics subscribers, we would not be sharing our readership with Social Media.  We don’t volunteer for “audience hostage taking.”  As is the custom, it usually takes 10-years, or so, on Big Picture stuff, but is the world coming out of FB and phone fog?  Google admits the open web is in ‘rapid decline’.

At the Ranch: Fathers & Sons — Motivation vs. Wisdom

George the Second (G2) called Monday on his way into work at a big server farm build in the PNW.

“Hey Dad — saw you on the security cameras at 3:45 your time, 1:45 AM out here in Wenatchee. You doing OK?”

He already knew the answer: if he really thought there was an issue, he would have called, offered a voice challenge, and I would have answered with a coded reply. If the answer was wrong, he’d tell me “Oh, OK…” and twenty minutes later a SWAT-capable team would be on site to bail us out of any pickle (or relish). Since he didn’t call when the video alarms tripped, he was telling me in advance he knew I was fine — but he had something to say. I fumbled for the excuse.

“Yeah, sure… just rocking it — new math concept for the MoneyMachine.py coding to get some of what’s in my head reduced to something executable. You know — software turns take time… and sometimes the golden time is in the wee darks, right?”

“You are sure a force of nature… I saw that big elm in the front yard went missing last week — and I’ve been meaning to talk to you about that…”

Oh-oh… here it comes.

“You really need to kick it down a notch. You know, there’s something 20 years of skydiving has taught me…”

“What’s that?”

“You can do everything RIGHT and still DIE. Pay attention, dad.”

“What do you mean?”

“I’ve almost been run into at least twice under canopy, been in several fixed-wing aircraft engine-out emergencies, and even had to auto-rotate a jump helo due to turbine failure. So I looked at it one day and said ‘f*** it — can’t beat the odds forever.’ I can do everything RIGHT and still DIE in this sport. Hear what I’m trying to tell you?”

“No, G, not really. Like Dr. Eastwood taught us: ‘Man’s got to know his limits.’ I quit the Virago shaft-drive when I was 55. Right around then, I had a cousin lose his leg from mid-calf down when he had to lay his bike down at speed. Then, when my depth perception dropped after eye surgeries following the displaced IOL in my left eye, we sold the Beechcraft too. That was the end of Elaine and me flying single-engine transcons. So no, G, not sure what point you’re trying to make?”

“Let me put it this way: Something I learned mountain climbing. All those people on Mount frigging Everest were once highly — sometimes OVER-motivated men, just like you. You know what we use those bodies for now?  WAYPOINTS. Too high for retrieval and totally unsafe to bring them down. They’re WAYPOINTS on a GPS route up the mountain, Dad. Highly motivated to the nth degree turned to waypoints. Following? You’re pushing it… I don’t want you to become a waypoint for me…”

Well, that shut me up for almost a minute.

He had to go — a Big Boss was in town and his medical system rocks. His site is a poster-child for big/serious/grown-up construction site safety, and he’s built himself a real niche. Like being the school nurse for 1,200 tradesmen.

After we rung off, I was left pondering… Kid made a good point: where is that line? Motivation versus Wisdom?

Didn’t take long to come to the answer. “He’ll figure it out. I have work to do.”

Fear of Aging Counseling

This weekend, for a few minutes, Elaine was feeling kind of low. Very unusual for her.

She’d just gotten out of the shower and was doing “the routine.” You know the one: hair, makeup, nails, spritz of a good sniff.

Just like I may be a little over-leveraged on raw output, she can be over-critical sometimes on appearance and grooming. Which is a big reason why she looks 62 at 82, but you knew that.

“Why so glum?” I asked her.

“Well, no matter what we do, we’re both going to die… and I’m not looking forward to that…”

“Want some Ure family perspective?”

“Sure… can’t hurt.”

“Pappy was out in the wilds one day on his motorcycle — an old Indian — sometime before the Second World War. Sees this guy standing in the middle of the railroad tracks. Eastern Washington somewhere. Guy’s just standing there on the tracks. So Pappy stops the bike, dismounts, and goes over to the fellow and asks, ‘Why are you standing on the mainline tracks? You could get killed if a train comes along. They can’t stop in time…’

‘I hope it does… my life’s about over and I’ve decided to end it all. Thought a train hitting me would be a quick way to go… but hell, I can’t even get that right.’

‘What do you mean?’

‘Train’s late,’ he told Pappy.

At which point, I looked directly at Elaine.

“Train’s late?” Pappy asked.  “You could be having breakfast – ham and eggs – or something –  instead of standing on the tracks…”

“Are you waiting for the train, dear? If it’s late, don’t waste any time!”

A laugh, and in minutes the blues were gone. And that’s the point.

The people in our lives will teach us all the lessons we need – and even give us a chance to give-back, too.  But it’s all according to how you look at it every morning when you pop out of bed.

Maybe I’ll dial it back the tiniest little bit.  But sure-as-hell I’m not going to stand on the tracks for some damn train that’s already running late; just fine with me that it is.

Write when you get rich (or know for sure it’s a train…)

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