TL;DR: Markets braced on durables, GDP, and UI filings with gold near $3,800, silver $46, BTC $111.5K. My consigliere’s dark dart toss runs from Israel–Iran nukes to a 2029 bio-war, stitched to financial collapse. Out here, even a dead cat vanished by vultures — a reminder the Presence still cleans up when it must.

Durable Goods and Econ

Prior to the economic data, markets were looking for a second day of slide at the open.  Gold was lastery again and silver eyeing $46 next.  But that was before the following news dropped:

New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in August, up following two consecutive monthly decreases,
increased $8.9 billion or 2.9 percent to $312.1 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This
followed a 2.7 percent July decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.4 percent.
Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent. Transportation equipment, also up following two
consecutive monthly decreases, led the increase, $8.1 billion or 7.9 percent to $110.2 billion

International Trade:

Advance International Trade in Goods
The international trade deficit was $85.5 billion in August, down $17.3 billion from $102.8 billion in July. Exports of
goods for August were $176.1 billion, $2.3 billion less than July exports. Imports of goods for August were $261.6
billion, $19.6 billion less than July imports.

Also Out:  GDP

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 0.6 percent (revised). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a decrease in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and an increase in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by decreases in investment and exports.

And the weekly Unemployment Filings

BTC  was down to the $111,500 area. And we wouldn’t be surprised to see Gold kick in $3,800 today.

Meanwhile, as Switzerland blames tariffs, they again held rates steady: Swiss central bank revises economic growth amid U.S. tariffs challenge.

How to Bet the Future

My consigliere called all excited Wednesday.  See, he’s figured out how the Future is going to happen. Or, so he thinks – and this dart toss may not last more than another 15-minutes.  But here’s the gist of it.  (Hold on, this might be jarring to some!)

• Sometime between now and, oh year-end say, Israel may have to go first use of nukes on Iran.  That’s because Operation Midnight Hammer may not have killed the Iranian program.  We think what is likely would be an update to The Status of Iran’s Nuclear Program | Arms Control Association.  If they report Iran’s “glowing is growing” then Israel may be pressed into first use.
• Then, because there could be lots of Iranian civilians killed (remember, in that part of the world “human shields” is a thing) which would cause outrage in the West and totally piss-off the Islamic world.
• Which, in turn, MIGHT then lead to a Pakistani nuclear strike on Israel – aimed at a couple of military and economic centers (Tel Aviv, Haifa?) and the Dimona nuclear facility.
• With their homeland seriously shot-up, many Israeli’s could relocate to Poland and south Argentina.  Although Argentina as “Little Israel” was called conspiracy theory in 2006, the new synagogue in San Martín de los Andes was a noteworthy development.
• Then, about the time the world thinks everything’s going to blow in 2026, we could then get our three-year False Peace (I think G.A. Stewart covered that in his Nostradamus work).
• Also, people go a little nutty when the sky changes – and there’s more coming. Apophis – NASA Science
• So – come 2029 – about the time Apophis flies by (we hope!) – then we get into the Mars runs wild.
• World War III (part 2) is game on in 2029.  Be ready to brace for an 80 percent die-off because of biological weapons.  Which my consigliere worries North Korea is likely working on because nukes are a bit problematic.  Harder to hide and gobbling up tons of electricity.

Yes,  this lines up as bothersome, But you can’t call bull-shit on it because it MIGHT stitch together this way.  Yes, the projections do make sense – especially a nuclear first use IF Iran is going high speed on nukes. Any nation that does first-use would be caste as an international pariah state, sure. But if someone says “I’m going to kill you” and then buys guns and knives…following?

The other thing that dovetails is this scenario would “give cover” to financial collapse at scale.  Remember how 9/11 came as the internet bubble implosion was picking up speed?  Maybe this if how history happens.  Very, oh, Lemony Snicket.

We try to look at the future as a dart board. It’s still to early to talk about landing zones for the pointy end of things. .  Ever play darts?  You know about “doubling-in” right?  That’s the short-range news in play. THEN we get to the double-out moment.  Doubling-out in ’29 is not a farfetched throw from here.

You’ll want to order another pitcher, or three, in advance.

Rat Check

“Are those Headlines or Droppings?”  You tell me…

We seriusly don’t think Netanyahu will go for it… Trump pushes 21-point Gaza plan with ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal, new administration: Report. Does the term D.O.A. mean anything?

The Bighgest Government money can buy?  In trouble as White House plans permanent job cuts for federal staff in aggressive shutdown move. Just to “keep it real” though, consider the US (when you count schools and such) about 13 percent of the  workforce is government-employed.  China? Closer to 23 percent.

What to do when you have governmnent thart’s too big?  ASIA TODAY Xi tells UN: China accelerates greenhouse gas emission reductions.

Let’s all play The Blame Game.  US Versions? Trump, Vance fault Democrats after shooting at Dallas ICE facility – The Washington Post. And the International Version? European officials fear Trump is preparing to blame them for Ukraine failure,

And the Accountability Game?  On sale soon: US prosecutors to seek indictment of former FBI Director Comey in Virginia | Reuters

Democrats – the party that keeps on screwing up:  BREAKING: Suspended University of South Dakota professor who justified Charlie Kirk’s assassination REINSTATED by US District Court, Bill Clinton appointee Karen Schreier, due to “1st Amendment” concerns. Overturn it. Phillip Hook posted that Charlie was a “nazi”…  Oh, wait – a Sick Willy appointee?

All we can do is wonder will Gavin newsome run for president of Mexico?  Governor Newsom Launches Late Night Anti-ICE Rhetoric, VP Vance Responds ‘Go To Hell’.

Yeah…well then…

Ahead on Peoplenomics.  (All subject to the word collapsing, of course…)

Two useful papers coming up (along with the ChartPacks, too) in our Wednesday Peoplnomics next week.  The first is an exploration of how invesment decisions are driven by the visual cortex of the brain – same place where the need for dopamine hangs out.  The following week, “Investment Limits to Agentic AI?”

Or, you can just follow the Saturday editions – where the 20-something charts from mid-week are updated after the weekly close…

Around the Ranch: A Dead Cat Story

Not our usual fare for breakfast reading, but stick with me.

Tuesday afternoon, Elaine and I were sitting in what we call “the 180 room” that looks over the front yard and expansive views.  I was pondering how to deal with a grim discovery when I went out to wheel the garbage can back to the house; Tuesday’s is garbage day here.

Out at the edge of the road was a cat.  Gray and very much dead.  But in a sleeping pose – with no signs of injury I could make out with a close look.  But, I didn’t move it – because feral cats can carry fleas, ticks, and other nasties.  I figured clean-up would be taking the tractor out – with a rake – and burying the animal down toward the creek.  About an 8th of a mile down the hill.

What was vexing me was how to tell Elaine.  As you know, we have been slowly cutting back on the feral cat feedings – we had as many as 21 of them at one point.  And when Elaine was walking outside a couple of weeks back, she was nearly knocked off her feet (or tripped) by this “fur carpet” that was surrounding her.  “They have to go,” she announced.  Which was fine with me: $300 a month for cat food is a little much – plus there’s the health risk to us.  Not to mention the screen porch has been torn up (again) and I can’t BBQ or use the gas broiler because cats – wild and bold – are attracted to my cooking.

So, anyway, there we were: sipping wine looking at the yard out toward the gate. (All the while I was still turning over in my head what to do about the dead cat down the drive). Out of nowhere, Elaine points and says, “What’s that?” I look and sure enough, a turkey vulture had glided in. In the space of minutes there were six or eight of them, wings spread, bumping and posturing, all business.

“Why, it looks like the vultures got a cat!” I exclaimed, innocently.  When the Universe blesses, you take your cue and run with it…

Before setting to work, they did the posturing,  Puffing up and spreading wings. After a 10-minute floor show, they got down to business. Nature’s road kill clean-up squad.

Next morning I went out to check, and there was no sign of anything. Nadda – zip – bupkis.   No bones, no fur, no trace. My problem had been lifted off my shoulders without me having to move a rake or a tractor bucket.

The thing that struck me wasn’t just that nature had handled disposal. It was the grace with which the whole matter was resolved. Elaine never had to be upset, I didn’t have to conceal anything, and the universe sent in its own clean-up crew right on time.

I took it as one of those quiet reminders that there is a Presence, a Force, whatever you want to call  it, woven into the way this world works. You can call it natural order, God, or coincidence, but when it steps in like that, you feel the choreography. Not only was the cat gone, but the lesson was left behind: the Force really does move things along if you’re paying attention.

Not everyone notices this kind of thing: I think it has a great deal to do with how each of us indexes the Reality before our noses.  If all you do is ‘take Life as it is’ – not expanding your indexing of events out several levels – you’re very likely to miss it.  But, when you begin to ask “Why did this happen?”  Like the cat thing.

In a lifetime of watching, you begin to respect, honor, and appreciate how the “whole thing” called Life works. Has its own agenda, tools, and its timeline is certainly not human-scale. I have noticed, though, and I think reader Andy is in this boat, too:  When you are appreciative and respectful of “Force, Presence, or the Dude” things just sort of “work out.”

Just as I was pondering it all, the phone rang Wednesday.  Seems a young man – quite skilled in a lot of land work – got stiffed on a job and needs to make some “fast money” and his grandfather mentioned that “If ya’ll have any work that needs doing….”

Well, yeah, sure do.  For me? It was the “maraschino cherry” call.  Fence line work, fire breaks, limbing-up trees?  Hell yes we have stuff to do.

And it’s great to notice when the Director of All sends in walk-ons to our personal stage just to make sure you get through the next scene well.

Write when you get rich, though you may already be if’n you notice,

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