We have to start off this morning by “running the numbers.”  Because, like it or not, this is one way of trying to out-guess where the future is leading.  IF, that is, you believe the “perfect pricing model” of trading.  Which holes that all known information is already in the markets at some level.

We ain’t so sure that’s True, however.  Because in our Peoplenomics ChartPack – which is updated twice weekly (Wed preopen and Saturday with markets closed for the weekend) we have been tracing a very strange anomaly for some weeks now.  I won’t go through the charts with you (figuring if you cared, you’d pop the $40/year to get to the box seats).

The basic thing is this:  In our view, there is a great deal to be learned about “future” by looking at three simple numbers.

• First you look at the current price because that’s the “right-now reality” proxy.
• Second stop is a short-term moving average.  This is “fast consensus outlook’s” view.
• Third? Consider a longer-term moving average.  This is the  “slow consensus.”
• Two wrap, look at either our 85-Day or the popular 200-Day moving averages.

The anomaly for several weeks now in analysis of the Bull and Bear camps is disturbing.  For the bears, we see the spread as relatively consistent. Slow Bears are down in the buying bargain basement levels near those of December 2024.

Our analytical problem?  It’s those damn Bulls. There’s a case that the market could scream higher in October 2023 kind of play.  But there’s almost no spread.  In other words, there’s very little delta between “fast bull sentiment” and “slow bull sentiment.”

Two or three reasons come to mind which might explain this odd behavior.

• First is that the Fed, via offshore proxies, may have been buying some limited amount of shares in order to keep the GHC (Global House of Cards) from blowing up this year.  The case is argued by the proximity of modes.  Imagining here that the Fed isn’t trying to move markets, but rather has been forced into a position where they need to maintain appearances.  
• The second possibility is that there may be information leakage to a certain select group of investors who are trying to keep out of the public eye. Imagine some group of investors getting inside advance warning of a “news event” but trying to “play it on the low beam, so as not to be noticed.”
• The third possibility is that this may be a phenomenon of long-term bullish market exhaustion.  In which case (though it’s a far smaller data set from the 1920s), it would be an interesting analytical problem to consider when we run out of things to do around here.

Sadly (or not really), I am splitting time between tree farm outdoor power tools and proofreading the pre-release version of “Downsizing: Missing Collapse of Empire” that I’m trying to get done in time for Peoplenomics subscribers to read over the 4-th which is just 8-days away…

]You didn’t ask, but the book – which you can think of as a companion to my earlier The 100-Year Toaster – which was all about planned obsolescence in order to jack up “sales revenue” (and keep the bonfire of equities at bay) – is three sub-arcs in a single book.

• A discussion of how people can voluntarily downsize their lives.
• More on the “intractable problem” that arises from prioritizing Product over People.
• And then it lays out a path to transition to a consciousness-directed world (where what’s between our ears is the product, not “what’s in your wallet – or storage unit” kinds of thinking.

It’s not a manifesto, so much as a roadmap.

The “Numbers Racket”

My consigliere will no doubt be reaching for his calculator to run Velocity of Money at M2 because that drops out (with Fed data) as the rate osf “money turnover.” Thus, he will have a first look, first shoot at where next.  Me, being considerably lazier, and doing MBA school (instead of Law School) I will just click over to the St. Louis Fed’s FRED data pages (this one) and refresh later in the day, realizing there’s not enough ROI on knowing first. The “offishul” numbers assess quarterly, you can divide M2 by GDP on your own more often. Just be aware people hate reality and live lives of denial.

BUT, with all that “out there” here’s what just landed…

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 (January, February, and March), according to the third estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2024, real GDP increased 2.4 percent. The decrease in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an increase in imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and a decrease in government spending. These movements were partly offset by increases in investment and consumer spending.

The second data set evolving is Trade Data.  But, before you go getting all worked up, pause, take a deep breath, and consider all the noise around on-again, off-again, on-again Tariff changes.

And then Durable goods…

“New Orders
New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $48.3 billion or 16.4 percent to $343.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 6.6 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 15.5 percent. Transportation equipment, also up five of the last six months, led the increase, $47.4 billion or 48.3 percent to $145.4 billion.

This is the kind of thing that leaves me wondering whether to seek a “multivariate” or a margarita.

Last dribble is the snapshot of New Unemployment filings for the week.  I assume you will be able to read this well enough to draw some kind of inference?

Pour yourself another cup, we’re just getting started.

Intel School

Here we are – just a few days away from July.  Imagine you’re sitting at a desk looking at the piles of papers and news reports.  Here’s the problem:

• One pile of “inputs” is the News stack.  The CNN/NYT “injection site” for (likely foreign-backed questions) about the effectiveness of the Iran attacks is now being fanned by stories like
• The second pile of inputs is “Predictives.” If you have had a precognitive dream in your life, then you will want to study these people carefully.
• Financial drivers:  This pile drops out of my Peoplenomics work and you know where you can find that…

The next step is to have at least an overview of how modern military intelligence works.  My A.I. stack has prepared a short read-in for you here….

Military Intelligence Analysis Processes for Assessing Damage in Iran (PDF)

Looking for something a little more alarming?  Putin’s ‘Doomsday Radio’ spews out weird coded messages as NATO leaders meet.  Peachy.

Why this matters:

Our small intel circle is looking for truth verification about actual damage at Isfahan – which is the main disputed point.  Since some stories on “damage” cast doubt as to the Iranian nuke program, tit raises odds that Israel will – in the interest of national self-preservation – find a reason to preemptively and decisively end Iran (not just it’s uranium enrichment).

Two things I mentioned to my colleagues who are deeply tracking:

1. “My money’s on Jackowski outlook of possible renting cruise ships to move people back to Europe, though southern Brazil is getting traction, following an attack on Iran. Resolution? Surely before year end. But before or after the Taiwan game isn’t clear” *(There’s data coalescing around the October period.)
2. “Yes, we know DIA was the claimed source, but it would not be the first time that a certain nation, whose home defense goes genocidal at times (ask a Gazan) might wish to create ‘reasonable suspicions’ in order to advance an agenda.  One first used against them in WW II, if I recall.”

In our view – and I already regret writing this – nothing would fit the “narrative staging” at this point like a dirty bomb incident which, it would be claimed almost immediately, could be pinned on Iran and that, in turn might be used to justify an Israeli nuclear attack.  The most-awful scenario we have been referencing for a couple of weeks.

That could set off the chain-reaction; Attack, fallout drifting northeast from Iran, three Arab States joining militaries to counterstrike Israel. Following? An Israeli evacuation to the southern Poland area (as Jackowski sees it) soon thereafter.  And Stu’s got the King of Terrors in one of the July’s to be along, so there’s a rough template fit. for coming weeks.

We watch, we worry, we see a possible future-fit among the data points and pray it isn’t so. A reread of Post-Attack Assessment of the First 12 Days of Israeli and U.S. Strikes on Iranian Nuclear Facilities | ISIS Reports | Institute For Science And International Security may be in order. Along with the latest bash-on:  Trump’s latest rejection of intelligence assessments reflects a long distrust of spy agencies.

If you can’t trust the wet work department, who can you trust? Hmm….

Distractomat Suds

Keep people from thinking – it make’s ’em easier to manage, doesn’t it?

Oh look! Law-faring works both ways! Trump administration sues all of Maryland’s federal judges over deportation order.

There may not be enough alcohol in the world to read this one: Zohran Mamdani’s upset over Andrew Cuomo fuels AOC 2028 buzz.  (Doing the Downsizing book next week on Peoplenomics and Death of ther City-States – like NYC & LA) the following week because it fits so well… AOC running should do marvels for triple-filtered vodka sales…

Going through “war withdrawals” are you?  Just wait, another one’s in the wings: Thailand’s Border Conflict With Cambodia Raises Fear of Another Coup | Council on Foreign Relations… So, gaming China’s BRI or what’s the plan, here?

Then there’s the “war among the retailers” to keep watch over: Amazon Prime Day prompts big sale at rival retail chain.

Watching for the AI Bubble to pop? Micron CEO Cautions AI Boom May Not Be Fully Sustainable, Flags Tariff-Driven Demand Pull-In – Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) – Benzinga

Around the Ranch: A Good Coincidence

Went into town Wednesday.  Needed a blood draw to see how a new ticker-med was doing – and all fine on that front. But two things you may want to be aware of.

First, even though my doc’s place got the order in, seems like Walgreens doesn’t have a common allergy med (Albutero; HFA) readily in stock at their local dispensary.  Near as I could figure it Walgreens looks like they may be going to some kind of ‘centralized” scrip filling profile.

We have mixed feelings on this: On the one hand, having local inventory in a pharmacy costs more money (since a b-school axiom is “inventory sitting idle” is an unnecessary expense.  BUT, in the event of a HGD (hard grid down) condition, there’s no local fallback.  Allows for (pardon me for suggesting this) but a much wider “kill switch” from a grid attack.  Something to think about.

I’ve mentioned the tendency for “no in-store inventory” is a big trend in retailers, too.  On my Wednesday trip to town, Walmart’s “fresh Italian bread” was baked on the 22nd and it was sold (tell me if this is fresh, right?) to us on the 25th.  Yeah, three-day old bread at fresh bread prices.  We ain’t amused.

But let me get to the coincidence before I forget (which could be any second, now).

Pulled into the Walmart pickup (lane 6, 10:07 AM) and I noticed the car next to me.  I was driving Elaine’s 2005 Lexus ES-330 and – with only a scattering of other cars around, it turned out to be a 2006 Lexus ES-330.  Only a minor change on the taillights and a minor grill change. The last year of the Lexus ES 330 was 2006. It was part of the fourth generation of the Lexus ES, and was replaced by the ES 350 in 2007.

More recent ES350’s have been made in Kentucky (since 2015).

Back to the point:  I asked the woman driver how they liked their 2006.  “We have 245,000 miles on it now and we haven’t done anything other than brakes, tires, and fluids the whole time.  How about yours?”

When I told her it was “About 115,000 miles now” she smiled and said “So about broken in.”

I thought that was a pretty cool conincidence.  Looking back, I suppose I should have gone immediately to the gas station up the street to buy Texas Lotto and PowerBall tickets.

But the prospect of a 100-thousand miles to go left me with much to think about.  If we only put on 85,000 miles since 2006 or 2007 when we bought the car, will I be able to live long enough to wear it out?

Wine time in the 180-room last night, Elaine asked “How long do you figure before we could get an affordable self-driving car?”

Well, that set off a whole next level of pondering.  At what point will self-driving cars be good enough that you won’t need a driver’s license to be in one by yourself?  Made a note to see if passengers in a Waymo need a license…

(I had never gotten around to building out that particular thought stub – so here’s the dope:)

• No license needed for a Waymo:
• FullyAutonomous Operation: Waymo One vehicles are designed to operate without a human driver in the front seat, acting like a self-driving taxi service. Waymo CEO John Krafcik has stated that if a driver’s license is required to use a vehicle, it cannot be considered truly self-driving.
• Passenger, Not Driver: As a rider, you are simply a passenger, similar to taking a traditional taxi or riding a bus.
• Age Requirement: However, Waymo requires riders to be 18 years or older to ride alone.
• Guest Riding: You can bring guests, including minors under 18, but you must be with them during the ride and ensure they follow the rules. “

Not sure how long before Waymo gets out to our remote part of Anderson County, Texas. But we assume (idiotic L.A. rioters burning Waymos aside) that the future is now on autopilot.

Except in places like Isfahan..Where it may be in someone’s GPS destination list….um….

Write if you flash on something,

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