DDT: Data Dense Thursday.

Retail Sales

Softer than many expected: “Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $768.6 billion, up 0.2 percent (±0.4 percent)* from the previous month, and up 6.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from June 2025.

Philly Fed Outlook

“The current general business activity diffusion index rose to 41.4 in July from 10.3 in June. 53.1% of the respondents reported an increase in general business activity, and 11.7% reported a decrease from June to July.”

Here, Hold this bag: BTC traded under $64,000 again, overnight.

Unemployment Filings

Drought and About

But enough of this “drying out” talk. Here comes some:

100 Proof News

Elaine’s more laid-back (and her memory seems improved) since we’ve both gone on “news diets.”  We listen to a top-of-the-hour summary once in the morning, once at lunch, and after that, who cares?  If there’s a major weather issue, Alexa handles the alerts. We also have the office weather radio—and stepping outside to pee always involves a quick sky scan.

Your time and attention is the most valuable thing you have – and if you want to squander it on 13,216 repetitious headlines from the doom troller channels, enjoy.

Our design – freeing up lots of time to actually live our lives – involves leveraging software to fit our needs, not those of advertisers.  Which is why we use the:

News Compressor

The main thing that changed overnight is continued escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. expanded strikes into northern Iran and disabled a ship attempting to run the naval blockade, with additional strikes reported on Iranian targets. Iran responded by claiming strikes on bases in Kuwait and Jordan, warned that the Strait of Hormuz is a “red line,” and threatened further actions while releasing a detained American woman as a reported goodwill gesture. Oil markets remained relatively steady with Brent crude around the $84-86 range amid the tensions.

Domestically, the Texas Hill Country is getting scrubbed: Uvalde County entered a rare flash-flood emergency Thursday morning, with catastrophic flooding, active rescues, structures threatened and U.S. 90 closed west of Uvalde.

Not water everywhere, but the Coast Guard suspended its search Wednesday evening for three people still missing after a boat capsized on San Francisco Bay during a family memorial.

D. J. Trump fired a newly court-appointed U.S. attorney in Seattle shortly after his appointment. (Maybe he will skip another “Deals” book and work on an HR manual next?)

That’s where we are.

Where We Go Next

12–96 Hour News Outlook

• Further U.S. or Iranian strikes in/around the Strait of Hormuz or northern Iran (next 24-48 hours) — oil flow disruptions or tanker incidents could spike prices sharply; de-escalation signals or diplomacy would moderate this.
• Trump primetime speech on election security (expected Thursday evening) — potential market and political volatility around midterms and voting claims; content could shift narrative focus.
• Todd Blanche’s attorney general confirmation fight could affect DOJ operations and enforcement policy. Bring popcorn.
• Wildfire smoke spread from Canada/Minnesota into U.S. Northeast/Midwest (next 12-72 hours) — air quality alerts likely to persist or worsen for sensitive groups.
• Potential tariff or trade actions (e.g., Brazil 25% tariffs noted) — supply chain and commodity price ripples in coming days.

Over the Horizon Newsdar

• Public and political pressure on data centers and AI power demands gaining traction in U.S. discourse.
• Ongoing cyclospora surge tied to produce, with record cases prompting state investigations.
• Shifts in Ukraine leadership (defense minister dismissal) potentially signaling internal political strains.

This last is interesting because I expect a BIG policy fight might erupt over whether to drone-swarm the Ukrainian nuke plant that’s been in Russian hands.  Reel that outlook into the 30-days after HR grenades realm.

At the Ranch: Bathtub Brandy?

Before we dig in, a thank you to PN subscriber Dana, who wrote a very flattering post about our Peoplenomics “deep-dive” this week. It’s about the upper limits of human I/O and how our attention is being robbed at screenpoint.  The “educational” part of Dana’s post was this:

“Need a tube of toothpaste? Whether you’re in a supermarket aisle or on an Amazon page, you’ll see too many brands, each with too many sub-brands and benefits: Enamel-strengthening? Gum health? Whitening? Tooth sensitivity? Breath-freshening?

If you don’t have your selection pre-determined, the visual input is instant overload for the decision-making process.

It reminds me of what my mother used to say when she hit maximum kid-overload: “I need some time to hear myself think!”

True story for you:

Years ago, I had lunch with the best telemarketer on the planet. A fellow named Phillip Trout.  He specialized in very high-end deals like investment partnerships for the doctor and dentist crowd.  He spent his typical workday in his bathtub, smoking a stogie or a joint and sipping brandy.

So we go to lunch.  Waitress comes for the order.  “What will you gentlemen have today?”

Phil went first.  “Bring me the best thing on the menu – tell the chef to outdo themselves – bring me the absolute best they have ever done!”

The waitress thought about it for a moment.  “That’d be our London broil or the corned beef and cabbage.  Which sounds best?”

“You decide. I like surprises.”

“Me?” She looked confused. Phil just nodded, prompting her to think it through. Then she made the call. “I get more compliments on the London broil than anything,” she concluded.

“Then that’s what I’ll have!”

Naturally, I had the same thing – and it was amazing.  But I also asked Phil about it – why turn over his decision-making power to a waitress?

“Because she wants a big tip.  I get a great meal, she gets a great tip.  And I don’t waste my valuable mental focus on minutia that I don’t need to. I also always get the best meal in the house.”

To say that was a life-changing experience for me is pure understatement.

To circle back to Dana: Notice how Phil’s logic didn’t merely avoid decision fatigue; he built a small incentive system that produces a better outcome for everyone. That directly supports the human-I/O theme.  Society is now operating, in the Peoplenomics perspective, on the backside of the “attention power curve.”

Phil’s method delegated the trivial and preserved his attention for work that mattered. Today, I’m facing the opposite kind of system—one that takes what should be a simple transaction and turns it into a continuing attention drain. I call it:

The Road To Hell Through Dallas

Yeah, that old saying: “The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”

With a nod to the Deacon, the background is worth a mention since we’re all on this Earth Ride together. The core idea — that good intentions can still lead to bad results — has older roots in Christian moral thought. Similar sentiments show up as early as the 12th century, sometimes loosely credited to Saint Bernard of Clairvaux. The first clear printed version appeared in John Ray’s 1670 collection A Collection of English Proverbs as “Hell is paved with good intentions.” The more familiar modern wording didn’t show up until Henry G. Bohn’s 1855 A Hand-Book of Proverbs. By the late 1800s and early 1900s, it had become a popular way to call out well-meaning but poorly thought-out actions and policies.

Regardless of its exact origin, we now have fresh evidence that Dallas is also on the road to hell.

“Why Dallas???”

I thought you’d never ask.

It started innocently enough. Elaine did a hitch in the U.S. Army back in the 1970s as an MC/ST operator in the Adjutant’s office at what was then Fort Lewis (now JBLM). In a fit of nostalgic weakness, I bought her a genuine Army-green IBM Selectric II online on July 6 — said to be in good working condition.

Now we wait.

Wed, Jul 15 4:57am — Arrived at USPS Facility, Olathe, KS
Tue, Jul 14 9:55am — Arrived at USPS Regional Facility, Dallas TX Distribution Center
Tue, Jul 14 9:21am — Departed USPS Regional Facility, Dallas TX Logistics Center
Mon, Jul 13 through Sat, Jul 11 —
“In Transit to Next Facility, Arriving Late” (every damn day)
Thu, Jul 9 — Denver distribution centers
Tue, Jul 7 — Shipping label created in Aurora/Denver area

My dear Watson, do you remember all the problems we had five or six years ago with the Coppell Postal facility routing things into the wrong black hole?

“Indeed I do, Holmes. Why do you mention it now?”

Perhaps we should inquire whether any personnel or routing protocols were quietly transferred from Coppell over to the Dallas Logistics Center?

“Holmes, your powers of deduction remain as sharp as ever. But did you contact the sender?  And wasn’t there a World Cup game in Dallas the same day your package arrived at a postal facility and seems to have left on a truck to Olathe 20 minutes later?  Soccer impact?”

Balls, Watson!  First, there was no World Cup game at a U.S. Postal facility.  And second, our sender has sent us this, “Yes I’ve looked into it weird that it was sent to another state I’m guessing there was a mistake with barcode scan at some point they should reroute it back I’ll keep you posted…”

What I think, my dear Watson, is we will have an opportunity to see the Post Office “sanitize” the written record when their “We don’t make mistakes – butt-covering” software gets word of our plight.  I’ve seen it before.

“So, for now?”

Now we wait, my good man.  We approach the problem with precision. One tracking update at a time, Watson. One line… then another. And for your column? It’s still in Olathe as of 5:34 AM this day.

I like surprises.

[dramatic music sting]  [fade to commercial]

Write or risk being stamped out,

[email protected]