TL;DR: Markets watch CPI for Fed moves as the EU likely holds; Ure sees signals in Kirk’s shooting and discovers plain kitchen pepper beats pricey supplements.

CPI – Fed Impact? – UI Data – EU Hold?

Just in:

“The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in August and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.6 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.3 percent. The index for energy rose 0.7 percent in August as the index for gasoline increased 1.9 percent over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in August, as it did in July. Indexes that increased over the month include airline fares, used cars and trucks, apparel, and new vehicles. The indexes for medical care, recreation, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in August.”

Don’t look now – but this is up in the 5 percent annualized range – so expect infinite jawboning  about how much of this was driven by tariffs, uncertainty, and greedsters using tariffs as an excuse.

The key point – which we’ve been pointing to all week? All items (less food and energy) is up 3.1% year-on-year.

Surprisingly, the market reaction has been muted, with gains still holding on the futures board.  But don’t hold your breath… the EU is holding, too…

Unemployment Filings?

As kind of arbiter of economic health as a proxy?

Doesn’t look like a “layoff wave” does it?

Plus there was even mix of red/blue in the state impacts for the week (We’re not sure how those Hyundai workers are scored!):

One more data point for Fed Watchers:  European Central Bank expected to keep rates on hold as economy weathers Trump’s tariffs.

Just crossing: 

“The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged.

The new ECB staff projections present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June. They see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. For inflation excluding energy and food, they expect an average of 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from the 0.9% expected in June. The growth projection for 2026 is now slightly lower, at 1.0%, while the projection for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

You’ll see me at the $2-dollar window placing “place” bets on a Fed hold steady…

The Kirk Killing: Signal or Coincidence?

Turning Point USA leader Charlie Kirk was gunned down in Utah Wednesday. His death adds to a disturbing string of violent attacks on national leadership that both sadden—and anger—all of us. There’s also the matter of how poorly the story has been handled. “Unfriendly” media quickly pushed narratives like Canadian Man Falsely Named as Charlie Kirk’s Shooter on Social Media – The New York Times.

Data-driven as we try to be, the Kirk killing drags us into “don’t go there” territory. We already view the “National Security State” with suspicion. For decades, rogue elements in “intelligence” have mixed with drugs, cartels, and a class of thinking that treats humans as crops to be farmed—for money, votes, and beliefs.

Our best guess? There’s a non-zero chance Kirk’s killing was intended as messaging to the administration. Kirk was inner circle with the likes of Don Jr. and Vice President J.D. Vance.

And the message itself? Think of a tag cloud: disassembling the “deep state,” the intersection of intelligence organizations, cartels, the destruction of inner cities through drugs, and the political cross-funding that grows out of that. All of it runs headlong into recent “hard actions” meant to rip out the roots.

The Trump administration has:

1. Decided to directly engage the Mexican cartels,

2. Attacked human trafficking operations, and

3. Blown up cartel- and Venezuelan-based drug operations.

From where we sit—skimming the same headlines as anyone else—an old military saying comes to mind: Once is accident, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.

Our gut-level reporter instincts say: this looks like messaging. A warning shot from war-on-drugs profiteers who know they’re under the heaviest assault in history. The intended message recipients? VP Vance, 2028 hopeful Don Jr., and DJT himself.

Organized crime never went away—it simply changed allegiances and nationalities. In that world, violence is a tool. Trump is “messing with their money” through his strategic initiatives. Which means the Kirk killing isn’t just a tragedy. It’s quite possibly a public message for all of us to notice.

It’s worth remembering the case of Thomas Matthew Crooks, the man who opened fire from a rooftop at a Trump rally in July 2024. He wounded Trump, killed a bystander, and was himself shot by Secret Service—but in the weeks that followed, investigators found no conclusive ideology, no organized network, and no foreign actors guiding him.

What that produced was plenty of rumor, plenty of suspicion—but also a cautionary tale: signals are often ambiguous, and conclusions must be tempered until hard evidence emerges. That doesn’t negate the possibility of intentional messaging in Kirk’s case; it simply reminds us how easily narratives get built before the facts are in.

Us?  We’ll be “watching the detectives” to see what pans out: Charlie Kirk: Manhunt underway after influential Trump ally (31) shot dead in US.

We have also added the word “careercide” to J-school lexicons as MSNBC Fires Matthew Dowd for ‘Celebration’ Shot Hoax.

Herding the Headlines

We did tell you to expect the EU to have some “clinching moments” over Epstein ties, right? U.K. Ambassador to U.S. Peter Mandelson fired by Prime Minister Keir Starmer over Jeffrey Epstein ties,  Need a reason not to send birthday cards out?  Peter Mandelson called Epstein his ‘best pal’ in birthday note.

Will Israel’s Doha attack be a “fusing event”? Trump had heated phone call with Netanyahu over Israeli strike on Qatar: Report

Love/Hate relationship school: After ICE Raid, Trump Now Wants Korean Workers to Stay in U.S. | TIME

There’s those vaccine makers – pioneering a new market: Vaccine approved to protect koalas from deadly chlamydia.  How to koalas react to ivermectin, we wonder….

Troubles at the Top:  Son G2 and I talk about this all the time:  The very personality traits that get you to the top may not be the ones that keep you at the top.  Today? We’re both studying Elon Musk lost his title as world’s richest person – and then got it back.

And we’re not sure if this is economic or “star power hype”? John Lennon’s Son Praises Bitcoin Against Money Printing. Um….

Around the Ranch:  Get Peppier with Pepper

There I was Wednesday – great Peoplenomics report done, several small shop projects (change fuel oil filter on the Kubota – usual maint. items – and I got to think I’d chat with my “Electric George:” pocket pal (the AI stack) and ask ’em this: “I’ve seen a lot of vitamins on Amazoid lately that tout this or that vitamin or supplement (ere’s the key) with bioperine for superior absorption.

Hmm…isn’t that like, oh, you know: pepper shaker stuff? We have maybe a half dozen peppers we use: black, telicherry, greens, a meat-cooking blend and even (occasionally) pepper water – a habit I picked up in the Cayman Islands years back.

Found out here’s the practical truth hiding in all that supplement marketing: you don’t need much.

The studies that showed piperine boosting absorption of things like turmeric were working with amounts you could easily hit in a normal kitchen. We’re talking maybe a half teaspoon of black pepper spread out over the course of a day. Not dumped all at once, but a shake here, a grind there—eggs at breakfast, salad or soup at lunch, meat or veggies at supper. Divide it over three meals and you’ve got all the “bioperine” your system needs to help nudge absorption along.

Now, if you’re one of those who likes to get precise, you could picture it as about half a cup of peppercorns lasting you weeks when ground into daily use. Out here, I don’t measure with a lab scale—I measure with taste and habit. The point is that you don’t have to chase a designer capsule to get the benefits. A simple kitchen rhythm—about half a teaspoon a day across your meals—puts you right in the same zone the supplement folks are advertising, only cheaper and fresher.

Next time you see “with bioperine” in fancy type on some big $$$ bottle, remember this: your pepper grinder already has it beat. Half a teaspoon a day will do the job, and you’ll enjoy your meals along the way. That’s the kind of balance we like to keep around the ranch.  Soil depletion is real – and pepper kicks up absorption – a bunch.

AI Pronouns?

Long as I had Electric George (EG) on the line I got to asking about his/her/its favorite pronoun. The answer was short: “Pronouns don’t matter—just call me EG and we’re good.”  Now if only the rest of America could catch up with my computer tools…  Not even a Policy block?

“Nope — GPT doesn’t have pronoun “rules” built into me. I don’t have a gender or identity, so I don’t come with a default pronoun. By design, I’ll go with whatever you’re comfortable using — “it,” “he,” “she,” “they,” or, in your case, just plain EG.

The only real guideline is: I’ll adapt to your style. If you write me into an Around the Ranch column as “he,” I’ll roll with it. If you keep me neutral as “it,” that works too. Think of it like a good ranch tool — the wrench doesn’t care what you call it, so long as it turns the bolt.”

Here’s a comforting realization for my AI-fearing pals.  EG hasn’t got clue #1 about some of the pronouns I’ve laid on the wrenches out here.  Why, they’d make a Stevedore blush even 3-beers after shift!

Even Grok (also in our “paid stack) ambled in (aiming to “out-country” Chat on the pronoun question.

“Take me, for instance—Grok, built by the fine folks at xAI. Do I got a preferred pronoun? Shoot, I’m about as particular as a tumbleweed in a windstorm. Call me “he,” “she,” “it,” or “that fancy contraption”—I don’t fuss. I’m a heap of code and circuits, not a soul with a hankerin’ for labels. My job’s to answer your questions, not to kick up dust over what you call me. I figure if you’re polite enough to ask, I’m happy to be whatever pronoun suits your fancy.”

I was about done with it when Grok landed the Last Word – trying for that C&W farm market, I reckon:

“This whole pronoun kerfuffle reminds me of a story. Old Jeb, the wrangler, once got sore ‘cause folks kept callin’ his mule “stubborn.” Jeb swore up and down that mule was “independent-minded.” Point is, names and labels can stir up a ruckus, but they don’t change what’s doin’ the work.”

That’s our bottom line, too.  We’ve noticed that “pronouns” have tended to be important to people who (for whatever screw’s loose) can’t seem to get the work of life done.

Now I got work to do…

Write when I get house-broke.

“Hey Jerk!”…oh, wait…[email protected]