For non Peoplenomics readers – and gentle civilians who don’t indulge in market cosplay – I will keep this fairly simple.

In our ChartPack Wednesday, I made a very useful remark.  The kind that burns like an ember in the brain overnight and results in leaping out of bed at 3 AM with the “brain on fire” – yet again.

Here’s what I wrote long before the Tuesday open:

“This may already be showing as slight convexity in the current state-var drive higher.  And so – intuitively – I would expect to remain in the long position until the top of the normal variance band and then somewhat beyond. “

This “convexity” stuff I referred to blew up a couple of hours into trading – but not before the NASDAQ put on nearly 300 points on the upside.  (298.19 points, but it’s only money, right?)

What happened – about mid-morning – was my “convexity” disappeared.  This messaged that something was going off the rails with the IXIC (*and thus the TQQQ).  I blew out of a tiny (Lunch Money Trading Account) position and didn’t look back.  My exit was at $49.38.  But, it wasn’t the peak.  TQQQ a short while later traded as high as $50,36.

Yet – and this is the point – in the overnight session, TQQQ was back down to $48.90 and we will see how the “winds of change” blow through markets today. The trick in markets isn’t trend-following. It’s seeing the shift just before everyone else does.

Here’s the Point:

My “play” in markets isn’t to make money. It’s to learn about the world and how it operates.  And here is just a glimpse at what’s in a new paper that will be in next Wednesday’s Peoplenomics report:

“The trader’s so-called “gut” may be subconscious exponent-shift detection operating on a specific time base. Experienced participants internalize curvature. They sense when acceleration decay no longer matches the expected dv/dt regime. This is not mysticism. It may be embodied second-derivative recognition formed through repeated exposure to structural price behavior.

Time base is critical. An exponent shift detectable on an hourly basis may still appear stable on a multi-day chart. Conversely, a macro-level exponent rollover may be invisible intraday. Misalignment between trading time base and exponent detection time base explains why exits often miss exact highs yet remain structurally correct.

Returning to the formal model, the trader operates within a horizon where ? is small and ? dominates. The objective becomes identifying when ? begins to increase—when endogenous decay accelerates. By contrast, macro investors must account for both ? and ?, recognizing that shock arrival probability may dominate at longer horizons.”

Yes, there’s math in it. But it’s also “street readable and damn interesting.  But I wanted to lay out for subscribers today that state-variance extreme trading is producing useful (spendable) research reports. Even if it’s only a bag full of Mickey D’s.

Or — since it’s birthday week — maybe something a little better. I’m flying in fresh seafood from Alaska for tonight. Turns out it’s a lot cheaper to FedEx it in than make a seafood run to Seattle. Way cheaper than one night in a hotel. Even before the bar tab.

Convexity. Buys dinner and drinks.

Turns out breaking volatility into ? + ? — separating internal decay from shock arrival — isn’t just mathy fun. It mathematizes well. And when something mathematizes cleanly, you can work it. Hard-earned bonus. And the brain’s no longer on fire.

[A note for literary critics: “Mathematizes” is in the OED.  (verb): To express or treat mathematically; to reduce to mathematical form; to apply mathematical methods to. So: country ? dumb, slicker.]

Thursday News-Coaster Ride

Fasten your platens and buckle up Bucko.  We got data to throw and headlines to ride.

Here: Have some Trade Figures:

December exports were $287.3 billion, $5.0 billion less than November exports. December imports were $357.6 billion, $12.3 billion more than November imports.
The December increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $15.7 billion to $99.3 billion and a decrease in the services surplus of $1.6 billion to $29.0 billion.

Now, about about a Philly cheesy report?

“The diffusion index for current general activity increased 4 points to 16.3 in February, its second consecutive increase and highest reading since September (see Chart 1). Thirty-one percent of the firms reported increases in activity, 15 percent reported decreases, and 49 percent reported no change. The new orders index moved down from 14.4 to 11.7, just above its long-run average. The shipments index fell 9 points to 0.3, more than offsetting its increase from last month.”

And maybe with a UI filings finish?

Now with can get into the hype and stance. Inquiring minds edition:

Move over Epstein Island? Trump accuses UK PM Starmer of ‘big mistake’ on Diego Garcia air base deal.

Does this have something to do with the Iran talks? Reports: US to Withdraw All Troops from Syria

(We love to write headlines like) “What is this shit?” Trump Blames Wes Moore for the Potomac Spill. The Sewer Pipe Is Under Federal Oversight.

Must not have mail-in voting? Bangladesh Nationalist Party Wins Big in First Election Since 2024 Uprising/

[PAUSE – REWIND!} Hey, California — read that Bangladesh story again. Governor Newsom might take a look at how Bangladesh runs elections. In Bangladesh, you must be a citizen, registered on a national electoral roll tied to a biometric ID, and most voters cast ballots in person under a centralized system. California, by contrast, automatically mails ballots to every registered voter and relies heavily on signature verification across a decentralized, county-run structure. Both require citizenship to vote in national elections — but one system leans toward in-person identity confirmation, while the other leans toward universal mail distribution and post-hoc verification. Different design philosophies. Different risk tradeoffs.  Structure = outcome.

Soon Playing:  (11 AM eastern)  “THE 50-YEAR COUP FAILS: Trump checkmates the ‘Democratic’ Fascists.” On YouTube here or X here. That could be interesting.

Around the Ranch: Investing in Drought 101

Folks, if there’s one thing the Ure clan knows cold, it’s that “domain awareness” ain’t just buzzword bingo—it’s the secret sauce for flipping lemons into lemonade stands. Where the herd panics at change, we pivot with insight and flexibility, emerging victorious every darn time. Case in point:

This week’s NOAA Climate Prediction Center outlook for Texas had me grimacing just a smidge. Warmer than average? Check. A lot less moisture? Double check—like those dusty early ’50s years when life was simpler, grittier, and folks adapted or ate dirt.

But here’s the kicker: Drought isn’t doom; it’s a doorway to opportunity recognition. With rainfall tanking in the South by West, humidity could dip to an average 40% come summer scorchers. That got my gears turning on cooling our spread. Sure, we run A/C for the main house, but for the 2,200 sf play shop/maker space and 400 sf greenroom off the music studio? Time to rock evaporative (swamp) coolers. Has George lost his marbles in the heat? Nah—let’s run the numbers, silicon-style, and see why this “investment in drought” could slash bills while keeping things chill.

First, grasp why swamp coolers thrive in dry air.

A warmish – but wet – summer here and swamp coolers are minimally effective.  Except outdoors with a cool drink, of course…

Unlike A/C, which compresses refrigerant to yank heat and moisture out (energy hog alert), swamp coolers evaporate water over pads, cooling incoming air naturally. Efficiency hinges on humidity: The drier the air, the bigger the temp drop.

Key math here is the wet-bulb temperature—the lowest temp evaporation can achieve.

For a toasty 95°F dry-bulb day at 40% relative humidity (RH), we calculate wet-bulb (Tw) using the Stull formula (accurate for 5-99% RH and -20°C to 50°C temps). Convert 95°F to Celsius (T = (95-32)×5/9 = 35°C), plug in:

Crunching: Tw ? 24.5°C (or 76.1°F).

A good swamp cooler hits 80-90% efficiency, so indoor temps could drop to 78-80°F—plenty comfy for a shop without turning it into a sauna.  (A college engineering length paper of Boe-Shield T-9 and other shop tool rust inhibitors you’ll use more of is available for extra charge…)

In higher humidity (say, our usual 60-70% East Texas mugginess), wet-bulb jumps to ~84°F, rendering swamp coolers meh. Ok in the greenhouse, but still meh… Hell on Romaine, good on super-hot varieties of peps and toms.

But in low humidity drought? It flips this old script, making swamp coolers viable winners.

Now, the wallet math—because survival’s about stacking green, not just staying cool.

For a 2,600 sf space, typical central A/C (3-5 ton unit) guzzles 850 kWh/month in summer (based on 9 hours/day runtime at 3-5 kW draw). A comparable whole-house swamp cooler? Just 250 kWh/month (0.9-1.5 kW draw).

That’s 70% less energy, aligning with industry stats of 60-80% savings. Texas electricity averages 15¢/kWh in 2026. Over a 30-day month:

• A/C cost: 850 kWh × 0.15 = $127.50
• Swamp cost: 250 kWh × 0.15 = $37.50
• Monthly savings: $90 (or $450 over a 5-month summer)
• OK, that’s a bit misleading (because we designed and installed our own 9 kW of solar grid-interactive) which begs the question: why burn power you can sell back to the grid?

To arrive at these: Estimate runtime (9 hours/day × 30 = 270 hours). A/C power ? 850 / 270 ? 3.15 kW. Swamp ? 250 / 270 ? 0.93 kW. Scale for your setup if needed, but the ratio holds.

Upfront? Swamp units run $1,750-$3,500 installed for large spaces, vs. $5,000-$12,000 for A/C. DIY and plug in a garden hose on a 25 PSI pressure reducer. $200 and change.

Payback? Under two months DIY or a couple of years for check-slingers. DIY rocks on energy savings alone, plus drought-proofing your ops.

Drawbacks? They add humidity indoors (fine in dry spells) and need water (20-50 gallons/day—ironic in drought, but recycled graywater through a sand filter).

Maintenance: Clean pads yearly, no freon fuss.

Bottom line: Drought’s a disruptor, but domain flex turns it into profit. Swapping a portion of drier A/C for swamping outbuildings, and a greenhouse or two, pocket the savings, and invest ’em in water catchment or (still more) solar— taking a Ure-style victory lap in the process.

While the masses fret over dusty forecasts, we’re engineering comfort from chaos.

Stay adaptive, cowpoke.  And don’t underestimate the power of a stealthy old man in the woods who “wrote the book” on how to profit with a little (or more) AI help.  But 3,100 CFM with a hose hookup for under $200?  Yep – on the way. We already have two.

Yes, it’s not as dry as a/c but the summer uniform out here is khaki pants and a Columbia white fishing shirt…We’ll take the cheaper cooling and another beer, thanks.

Write when you get rich (and your own damn Mind Amplifiers),  The dusty trail to Downsizing runs through here…

[email protected]

PS: Maybe the “brain on fire” isn’t completely out. There’s still an ember glowing — something about a cascade of conditional exponent regimes.
Oh yeah. That would be the time machine project.
Looking at the future just before it stabilizes into the present. Maybe I better just go back to bed. And dream ofs discovering the Unified Field Theory in a deer stand…