When I mentioned to the Peoplenomics crowd that we didn’t go short over the weekend, it was an abundance of caution.  And, it was accompanied by a warning: News is Driving.

China: Purge Or Invasion of Taiwan

Gold screamed past $5,100 overnight and silver is nearly $110.

We’re hearing things — many — strategic things so let’s summarize it;

Gold and silver are moving like the world’s big money is sniffing out a regime change of some kind — either in Beijing, in the Taiwan Strait, or in the credibility of “business as usual” across the whole Pacific trade machine. When metals start acting like a flight-to-safety referendum, you don’t ignore it. You ask what the grown-ups are seeing that the talking heads aren’t.

Here’s the wrinkle: credible reporting says Xi’s circle is running a broad PLA shakeup — senior names, phones seized across ranks, “high alert” language being used. That can be exactly what it looks like (a systemic purge, internal discipline, a lockdown to prevent leaks and factional blowback). Or it can be the oldest trick in the strategist’s book: use “chaos in the capital” as cover noise while readiness actions happen under the radar. That’s why the same headline can read like palace intrigue…or like the opening bars of something much louder.

There was a (sketchy/social only)  report overnight of a PLA fight with a Xi security detail.  Meanwhile, our sources tell us wait for the Big Picture to fill in:

“WSJ’s chief China’s correspondent Lingling Wei describes, “And this is far from the end. With thousands of officers having risen through the ranks under Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, these individuals now recognize they are primary targets for a systemic purge.” She reports that “Mobile devices have been seized across ranks and all units are now on high alert.”

Here’s what high alert means: PLA Rapid Reaction units have 48 hours between notification and fully armed and uploaded deployment to tactical assembly areas per whatever war plan they are tasked to conduct (as part of the alert message). These units can be as large as a US Army Corps. For comparison, we have a total of four Corps…”

If it’s only a purge, the market still hates it — because purges mean instability, uncertainty, and desperate decision-making. If it’s something more — a coercive move or a real roll toward Taiwan — then the metals bid makes even more sense. The key is that “high alert” plus comms seizure is what militaries do when they’re either terrified of internal leaks…or getting ready to do something that can’t be talked about. Either way, it’s not normal.

What should we watch? Not Dylan lyrics — signals. Restricted maritime/airspace zones, odd shipping behavior, sudden “exercises” that look like staging, and any sign Taiwan/Japan/U.S. posture is quietly shifting. Metals may be the first public dashboard that something big is brewing. Whether this is purge theater or a Taiwan move, the message is the same: the risk premium just got repriced, and the smart money is buying insurance.

Poker Table Eyes

As of press time:  Gold has traded above $5,100 and silver over $110.

On the American side of the table:  We have more domestic problems with ICE in Minnesota, a major storm as reaction friction plus the odds of a government shut-down this coming Friday. Xi is eyeing our internal position.

Plus, we have data uncertainty with Case-Shiller Housing tomorrow and a Fed rate decision Wednesday.  While rates will likely remain where they are, Chairman comments can drive. Or world reaction Thursday.

On the Chinese side of the table:  Xi is – by all accounts so far – firmly in control.  Sources see an echo with Stalin’s purge ahead of WW II.  IF Taiwan is the play, then repricing metals higher might slow a U.S. quick reaction to losing the Tech Republic.

One Tell:  Copper was flat to down, which has us leaning toward Big Purge.  Xi calls housekeeping.

Ice, ICE, Baby

Funny how the “chill” concept was interpreted domestically this weekend.

One the conventional Ice front, winter storm Fern was less impacting than expected.  See the national outage map here and Louisiana and Tennessee have more people in darkness than Texas.

On to the Northeast now: Dangerous winter storm arrives in NYC, Tri-State Area with heavy snow, sleet.

On the other ICE  front: Minneapolis becomes ground zero in Trump’s immigration crackdown: Arrests, protests and 2 fatal shootings by agents.  And here, look who’s wading into now: Barack and Michelle Obama blast Trump and federal immigration agents.

There used to be a kind of “gentleman’s agreement” that ex-Presidents wouldn’t comment on current events.  Which seems to be out the window now…

And a special for our wintry news analyst in Winnipeg: Vanilla Ice – Ice Ice Baby (Official Music Video).

And the Hits Just Keep on Coming

Victims and veterans of the Boss Radio era will remember this one, too:

Abba Abba do:  ABBA – Money, Money, Money (Official Music Video)

Washington don’t: Shutdown Risk Rises as GOP Dismisses Threat to Block DHS Funds.

Be easier to just put Congress on eBay, wouldn’t it?

Data Book Entries

• Durable Goods just out: New Orders
  New orders for manufactured durable goods in November, up three of the last four months, increased $16.4 billion or 5.3 percent to $323.8 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This followed a 2.1 percent October decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 6.6 percent. Transportation equipment, also up three of the last four months, led the increase, $15.3 billion or 14.7 percent to $119.3 billion.  (Factories are alive.)
• Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.04 in November from –0.42 in October. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from October, but three categories made negative contributions in November. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.23 in November from –0.34 in October. (But sluggish.)

And so goes life in the rearview…

Future on Deck

Here is the Monday Pace and Brace:

Today:  Thaw and jaw.  Think and blink.  Rest is best…

Tuesday:  Case-Shiller Housing.  We will have a two-part morning here.

Wednesday:  Fed Rate decision. Right after lunch. Not likely to change but Chair comments could echo into week end.

Thursday:  Trade and productivity along with UI filings.

Friday:  Farm prices at 3 PM Eastern – we have a dinger set because it could be a “sleeper.”

Around the Ranch: Cool But Warming…

Wheeling the garbage out to the street was a brisk few minutes:  17F here with 34 which isn’t really a high, but the Weather Service is selling that…

Nothing went wrong.  Feral cats sleep in piles when it’s cold.  (Called clowders if you play Scrabble.)  Elaine enjoyed watching the cardinals looking for seeds in our 1.8 inches of snow.  Lots of bare spots under trees.  The clowders pile was already well-fed.

I, needless to say, being biased to action and all, picked up a cat and squirrel proof 8-foot high bird feeder.  This one.  And some bird food.  Where I was shocked at some of the emotion-tagging in adds for bird seed. Hard to beat bulk at Wally World or Tractor Supply.

Chill Time = Training Time

We loved (almost to the point of calling it “binge watching”) of Adam Savage DIY videos on Youtube this weekend.  Try Adam Savage’s Favorite Things of 2025! but let your spouse hold the credit cards…

Also new on our “training and dreaming” curriculum was Don’t Buy New Countertops. Do This And Save Thousands! from The Haxman.

We also like to create and, as a result there is fresh content today on our two new “evergreen” websites:

Hour-A-Day Gardening has 5 Core Concepts to Hour-a-Day Gardening

Time-Engineering.com has Two “TimeTools” – Time Engineering

We got commenting set up on these sites, so you can help drive direction with your input.  The Hour-A-Day site will update on Thursdays and Time-Engineering is a Monday with coffee “thing.”

Groceries and cooking ran fine, only a few minutes of power outages (nods and applause for the Trinity Valley Electric Co-Op crews).

And two of the Tastee-Kakes apple pie turnovers were somehow overlooked.

I have to go fix that right now…  (I have 45-minutes blocked for the resulting “But what about staying the course on gluten-free?” argument between my ears.)

Write when it warms up (34F today – woo-hoo!),

[email protected]