As we  roll into Nick Day week, besides metals glittering early, there’s a CFNAI report to dissect.  After which three “holiday week risks” are assessed.  Noisy headlines give me a cartoon excuse, but then into useless lithium battery chargers and some ShopTalk and Peoplenomics previews.

St. Nick’s Rally – And Caution

Market futures were showing a decided pop at the open might be in the cards; Dow +42, S&P +23, Techs +133. Part of this is seasonal.  But there is also caution in the wind for 2026.  A detailed “thinking people who read Urban” analysis suggests a “steady-as-she-goes” until early January.  People are taking time off, and for grown-up investors, that involves turning down screen time and turning up face-time with family and friends.

As a result, Bitcoin is trying to top $90,000, Gold is quickly approaching $4,500 and even Silver is getting very near $70 an ounce.

Still, absent a rise well above recent highs – which might foretell one more leg up – the biggest problem is trying to assess where economic equilibrium will settle in 2026.  So far, a honest reporter would have to acknowledge “Trump is running light” but at the same time, “Demcrats are running useless” (nods to the made-up economy of California. (Can I peer over my spectacles like Schemer does when he’s overcome by faux drama?)

CFNAI

We can keep this short and to the point: the price is still being paid for GovDown as this morning’s Chicago Fed numbers are  an initial release covering data through September 2025.  And they tell usd what?

“The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to –0.21 in September from –0.31 in August. Two of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from August, and three categories made negative contributions in September. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.21 in September from –0.18 in August.”

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, decreased to –0.32 in September from –0.20 in August. Twenty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in September, while 60 made negative contributions. Fifty-two indicators improved from August to September, while 32 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 32 made negative contributions.”

(Must be something in the water in ChiTown – this talk of “negative contributions” rather than plain speaking seems – you know – masturbatory to us…)

We have two days of government reports to go before “reindeer and roofing” so pardon us if we just chill with some eggnog.  Yum!  National drink of cardiologists? Sugar, fat, preservatives, too much rum…oh yeah!

Our News “Naughty List”

Let’s start with Santa’s S-300 and S-400 flight ops, shall we?

Missing time?  There is something missing in stories like Israel PM Netanyahu plans to brief Trump on potential new Iran strikes. The exact date.  For now, the press speculates it will take place at Mar Lago December 29. But we wouldn’t rule out a phone call in the next few days.

That’s because:

What matters is the precise when of the Netanyahu/Trump contact.  There’s a “soft-shouldered” distribution between says “heads up” contact and the outbreak of renewed hostilities. So on the threat board, it looks like this:

U.S. side

• Trump currently operates without a confirmed foreign-policy team or formal NSC structure, limiting immediate execution bandwidth.

• Any Iran-related move before January would be advisory or signaling, not operational.

• Domestic U.S. political focus remains inward through year-end (budget fights, transition positioning).

Israeli side

• Netanyahu faces sustained domestic pressure from a prolonged corruption trial and coalition strain.

• Israeli leadership historically favors external security actions during periods of internal political stress.

• Israel has recently increased air-defense readiness and regional flight activity, suggesting contingency planning.

Iran side

• Iran is actively monitoring Israeli and U.S. movements and publicly signaling readiness.

• Tehran continues arms transfers and proxy support while avoiding actions that justify direct retaliation.

• Iranian strategy favors ambiguity and patience over immediate escalation.

All that and this is just one obstacle course for the Sled-driver.

Ukraine is the Other

But also indecisive.  Because while EU is still “all-in” with Ukraine (EU Agrees To $106 Billion Loan For Ukraine After Shelving Russian Asset Proposal) there are talks ongoing in Florida. Russia says U.S. peace plan talks for Ukraine ‘are proceeding constructively’, The fulcrum is when “constructive” under weigh “More war funding…”

Usual Suspects Behind the Headlines

Sizing up the headlines: Big Narrative is pushing

What we thought more useful, however, was:

Holiday Facts for Action

We have three simple ways to reduce personal (and familial) risk and stress profiles this week:

#1:  Chill – it’s the Holidays

Fact: Most home injuries happen during rushed, multi-arm trips carrying too much at once.
So what: Saving 30 seconds can cost weeks of recovery.
Action: Make two trips. Use a cart. Pride is cheaper than medical bills. One hand for the bannister.  (Slippery floors kill, too – take time to wipe feet…)

#2: Leave Early – Avoid Rush-Stress

Fact: People make worse decisions under time pressure and incomplete information.
So what: Small morning mistakes cascade into lost time and money.
Action: Stage keys, wallet, phone, and glasses the night before. Mornings should be mechanical, not creative.  Add time for ice and snow. Be ahead of conditions, not victim to them.

#3: Add Sleep – Early to Bed, Early to Opening

Fact: Holidays disrupt sleep, diet, and movement patterns more than people realize.
So what: Fatigue and irritability spike afterward.
Action: Resume normal bed and meal times within 24 hours of a holiday, even if motivation lags. This is the weekend to “test retirement” by going a few days with no alarms or snooze-slapping.

Around the Ranch:  The Lithium Lazarus

Here’s one of those “shaggy dog” stories from the Shop that actually offers some useful winter learning, if you’re not too busy?

Tale begins with a Fat guy (ably played by moi) building a deck foundation Friday. Which continued with the first coat of preservative stain (Penofin,. thanks for asking) going on Saturday.  Weather has been great and they’re still calling high 70s to low 80s for Nick Day.

Back to point, while I was working (feverishly) I had completely forgotten the keys to the old Lexus were in my pocket.  No one thinks to dump keys before working around the house, do they?

Well, they SHOULD because that key being in the pocket caused the trunk-open on the remote to be activated and the trunk was opened.  Since I was 40 feet (and around a corner) I of course didn’t hear the damn thing.  Our feral cat collection was also useless. And like I’ve said before, there’s a reason the Nobel Committee has yet to name a cat.

Well, wouldn’t you know it? There was no one around to “report the trunk” being popped until I happened to lollygag toward my construction project early this morning.  Since this wasn’t the first time with this problem (sensitive remote, old man who won’t put shit back) I closed the trunk lid.  Tested with the remote and….

DEAD BATTERY!

[I did warn you this was “shaggy dog” length, right?]

No, the dead battery ISN’T why this is a prepping article.  It’s because when I popped my faithful (lithium) charger on it…No Soap!

That’s the point of this whole “fit to be tied when I even think about” ramble.

Most people don’t know that many of the Chineseum (switch-mode) otherwise very solid battery chargers will not charge a COMPLETELY dead battery.  My trusty upscale Fluke said it was under half a volt.  Figure I must hav popped the Trunk Friday for the trunk lights to bleed it down so far…

OK – what’s the answer?  I will give you two.

First: Get longer than 25 feet jumper cables.  Then you can jump and be on your way. Maybe with a screaming fan belt from the alternator going into overtime and you won’t want to shut it down for several HOURS (or just buy a new battery).

Second: (Only if you were too cheap to get long jumpers…hangs head in shame):  Go to the ham radio electronics bench. Bring a lab-grade variable voltage and current power supply to the car, jump with that until the charge voltage gets up to 8.8 volts or so.  THEN the lithium profile charger will pleased to take over.

But here’s the (MacGyver-like) deal:  Dead lithium that gets under 6-8 volts (varying by charger) MAY NOT be able to get you to work on time.

True fact:  An old “dumb” lead-acid battery may be perfectly recoverable (like I just did). But if the “smart” charger is really a “smarty-pants” in cheap component use, with no big solid transformer you can stay “smart-but-dead” all day.  Old ranch hand would have known this. If their horses had used lithiums…

Now I’m wondering if a small IGBT welder could be used…hmm…

And now you know, the rest of the story (as the late Paul Harvey would explain).

Planning Ahead:  Christmas eve on Peoplenomics we’ll feature an annual accountability report for subscribers.  And New Years Eve? Food Reactor II design is ready and the parts have been ordered.  “Staying Alive in ’25” is about to give way to “Eat like you’re rich in ’26.”

Write when you get rich or to tell me my present is on the way…  I can’t open the one from LOOB until Christmas…

[email protected]