A week and a half back I told Peoplenomics subscribers that I was becoming Bullish.

The article was “Still Time to Rally?” and while I was way too early in my own account, we were back printing hamburgers in the lunch money trading pile last week.

Now the problem is “How far is UP?”

All this thrashing and upcrashing means we will likely close well above the 200 DMA but hold the phone.  We could be sitting smack-dab in the middle of one of those damn “Buy the rumor” events.

You do remember what tomorrow morning is?

Yesah – Housing numbers.  Case-Shiller.  The Big McGillah. Cower with the dust-bunnies?

Still, people who are waiting for Trump-O-Nomics to kick in, while they may not get the last laugh, will at least get another day of jollies.

But Housing will be the big one, we think.  Cowards go to cash, Bulls to to the slaughterhouse. And in my stuff we can’t rule out a Wave 5 Down.  With three aircraft carriers going to the Middle East, someone, doing something stupid is looking more and more likely.

A very thoughtful piece by G.A. Stewart on the Age of Desolation website – “The Difference Between Checkers and Check” has to be on your must-read list today. Said the guy who just ordered his third or fourth (rechargeable) Geiger counter.

CFNAI

Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator – although with the Future’s  running like Panplona in heat – although, with a nod to financial Bull, in our work, a late May 5th wave down could lead to yet-another running of the Bulls before the July 7th-ish date in Pampona this year.

Now, come with me out to the dollar pasture and let’s snort some fresh hype, shall we?

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased to +0.18 in February from –0.08 in January. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index increased from January, and two categories made positive contributions in February. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.15 in February from +0.07 in January.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which is also a three-month moving average, increased to +0.16 in February from +0.08 in January. Forty-seven of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in February, while 38 made negative contributions. Fifty-one indicators improved from January to February, while 34 indicators deteriorated. Of the indicators that improved, 15 made negative contributions.

• Production-related indicators contributed +0.19 to the CFNAI in February, up from +0.02 in January.
• The sales, orders, and inventories category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in February, up from –0.04 in January.
• Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in February, down from +0.08 in January.
• The personal consumption and housing category’s contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in February, up from –0.14 in January.

OK, not exactly nitrous, but the markets are running on a “run the shorts” and let’s bury the 200 DMA with a kiss-of-death before Isfahan begins to glow.

The Sketchy Future of News

Since getting involved with the latest in Brain Amplifiers (A.I.) and realizing they are the next round of power tools for humans, I’ve been noodling on the problem I call the “End of News.”

While there are useful numerics in the headlines, like the number of carriers going toward Iran (3) most of the other headlines are (more or less) like watching the teletypes back in the old days.  Paper would feed up the platen, be smashed with a few keys, and there it was – “news.”

Problem has evolved, though because as the world has become a marginally safer place, there just aren’t enough house fires and plane crashes to go around.  As a result, one double murder in (pick a city) gets to be National News, anymore.

Replacing the local house fires and gang-style stuff has been a growing fascination with Tabloidisms.  Here’s one: Donald Trump Jr’s one-word response over his ex-wife Vanessa dating Tiger Woods | News US | Metro News.  The UK has been unable to defend its own borders effectively over the past couple of decades and as a result, the place has gone from an mainly Anglo spot to a Melting Pot accident.  Because people aren’t into the melting stuff so much as the domestic takeover  (in slow motion) just like a certain large religion where the boss returned to work this weekend, set off on global conquest by outscrewing every other religion with it’s birth control rap.  Point is, the UK’s sense of news and lack of things like demographic changes may have done them in.

Rambling sa bit far for you?  Well, AI has been getting into mass rewrite ever since SpinnerChief and other services (and syndication) were turned up.  Less news, but wider dissemination.

Times are interesting, but the Don 2 story is illustrative of the direction Tabloidism is driving news.  Taken to extremes, stories that mean absolutely nothing will become global focus of everyone.

And that, as we figure it, is about when the whole world will experience sa psychotic break.  (It will also come about the time China’s Xi calls bullshit and goes to whatever their version of DefCon 1 is.

Nevertheless, interesting to watch.  Like being in the front of the canoe and listening for the sound of the falls up ahead, sometimes….

Screamers, Streamers, and Dreamers

Ready to stick your noggin back inside the Model 19 Teleprinters?

That Developer Mindset is an issue:  Greenland leaders lambast US delegation trip as Trump talks of takeover.

Not just in Greenland, either: Canadian election rivals tell Trump he must respect sovereignty.  We’re pretty sure it’s all just Trump being Trump – single-handedly filling the media with something less boring that who Tigert Woods is dating.

Peace is planning to take another week off: US-Ukraine talks underway in Saudi, as Kremlin warns of ‘difficult negotiations’.

And here’s a real gem – out of Ukraine media no less:  Kamala Harris leads early 2028 Democratic primary poll despite 2024 defeat.  Someone told me she might run for governor of California and I laughed my ass off.  There’s a riff, you see. Richard Nixon, another vice president of some note, ran for governor of California, too, and lost in 1962.  We expect the same kind of outcome for Harris should she try.

Around the Ranch: Chair Holding

Actually not much to report: I have been spending 12-hours a day cranking out new book and article materials – a 12-thousand word marvel for Peoplenomics is in the oven.
And outside, we are in a burn ban, very early for around here.  Rain is due in shortly though and we should be able to get back to more normal (cactus burner) application to garden areas.

On that, breakfast awaits, so have a dandy Monday.

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