Monday comes for us all. And sometimes, change comes with it.
QHA (Quick Hits & Agenda)
- Casino doors open on Wall St. shortly – we’ll do some nose counting.
- Big buzz on possible peace between Russia and Ukraine – but we have concerns.
- Click fever overcomes personal savings plans this week – but we have suggestions.
- And the R-Value of Bacon was Chow-wow Sunday around here.
Wall Street vs. The Strip
From the dyed-in-the-wool gambler’s perspective, the main difference is clocks. Wall Street rings the bell at 9:30 every trading morning. It’s a religion. But in Vegas, you’re hard-pressed to find a clock in any casino. That’s one of the major distinctions between options players and Strip gamblers (er, so to speak…).
The early line-check today showed the Dow down – but the NASDAQ and S&P were up solidly. But just as we write, the Dow has popped positive too, so the lunch money account is green. This is the part where our recent yammering about “holiday rallies” should be sinking in.
Germany and the Kneeler’s dealers were up early. The French? Lost as ever. But the “made up money” crowd? Got to be singing the blues because BTC dropped under $86,000 for a while.
Peace is Good – But We Worry
Can Trump end the war in Ukraine? Two stories cover the big picture: US, Ukraine reach ‘refined’ peace plan on Russia war. And Washington might be trying to serve an “extra-special” – Thanksgiving news cycle: U.S., Ukrainian officials discussing bringing Zelenskyy to U.S., sources say.
So far, all good?
Not so much. There are two very real tripwires. First is Defense spending. One of the “big easy’s” in Washington is wrapping spending up in “defense.” Sets up a checkbook touchdown every time.
The other – a bit more “out there” is in predictive circles around the web, we’re reading how China may be dreaming of a “flash invasion” of Taiwan. The context of this outlook goes like this: Trump takes an unexpected trip out of the USA for some urgent mission. But, part way to his destination, has to turn around and fly home. To deal with China’s “instant invasion” and flag-raising over America’s (weak AI-rich) supply chain.
When you get to be our ages around here, you keep looking for the “peace dividends” (after VN, Iraq, etc) and always – the checks bounce.
Clickstractions
Time of the year to work on 2026 personal budget plans. Useful is Social Security Benefits Get a 2.8% COLA in 2026, But Retirees Could Lose Out for These 2 Reasons. Short reason is the medical people are in line first.
Market meandering today aside: Traders brace for Federal Reserve impact amid US data wave,
Normally, the CFNAI would have just dropped: But Chicago is still getting over GovDown, too. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) incorporates a range of data from government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown. All better, then? Dow futures just crossed +150 – green me, honey.
Calendar checks: Market will be closed Thursday and a half-day Friday. Dallas Fed comes in mid morning today. Tomorrow we will find out if PPI is back from GovDown.
A Healthier You? Green Tea may mimic effects of weight loss drugs. Weight loss: Are there any natural alternatives to Ozempic?
And this is interesting: Can blood pressure drug beta-blockers increase depression risk? Besides the bills.
Wait…so now fat is kind of OK? Some processed fats may be safe for heart health, study finds. Too late to save any turkeys, but Prime Rib is back on the Christmas menu (and New Year’s, and…)
Guess that moves us gently along to this next piece:
Around the Ranch: The R-Value of Bacon
We were playing “serial foody roulette” this weekend. Elaine tossed a pound of wild-caught frozen extra large scallops at me. It was easy to pair: Reduced-sodium thin sliced bacon also got thawed.
Then the obligatory half-hour to find the 4-inch design toothpicks to hold it all together.
“Alexa – how long in the air fryer for bacon-wrapped scallops?”
“Air fry for 12-minutes at 400 turning once…”
Now, there’s two ways to wrap a scallop (which is a groady topic at breakfast, but that’s ranch life, huh?) There’s edge-wound bacon. And there’s over-the-top” winding.
You can’t get a full pound of scallops, the wrapping bacon and a million toothpicks in one air fryer load. So Elaine got most of the first one, and I – as a good gentleman – munched on the previous air fried and oven-held Yukon gold quartered potatoes.
Before servicing Elaine, I took the IR temp gun and measured the scallop meat temps. Then, while she purred and munched, I did the second load. Two layers of bacon on mine. (More temp readings followed.)
After it was all done? I did the calculations of the R-value of bacon. And it’s very small. But we can proudly report today we have solved one of the biggest mysteries in all of Science.
“Why people don’t insulate their homes with bacon.”
Fireside Rant: Solder versus Synonyms
This morning we need to sit on the porch, sip some coffee, level with each other about a few changes coming to Urban — all for the better — mine, anyway. All part of my “strategic semi-retirement glidepath.” That kicks in 80-some days. I plan to officially stop pretending I’m 44 with fresh knees and the metabolism of a coyote.
Urban is shifting to a 1,000-word hard deck. Not because there’s less to say — hell no — but because the world has sped up – readers with it – and skim to win is nuthink.
I’ve vowed to spend more time living life instead of writing about it. Some days, I do 14+ hours “in the chair.” Elaine and I have projects, ranch chores, a longevity routine that’s a part-time science lab all by itself. My to-do list is now well off the actuarial outlook.
The daily columns won’t lose their bite — just the bloat. Same bite, just fewer warning barks. Less DVT risk for me.
Instead of 2,500-word brain-dumps Urban will be a more a strong 1,000-word pour. Espresso vs. Mrs. Olson.
ShopTalk Sunday will evolve to an “STS 2.0” format: tools, sure but more ranch fixes, prepping odds-and-ends, anti-aging experiments, AI tricks, career navigation for the second half of life, and a touch of futuring. All the parts of the ranch-life ecosystem that make this community what it is. (Crazy?)
It’ll stay right here on Urban — free — because Sunday belongs to the tribe. Not all tribe members have four types of welding gear, or a PhD in RF engineering, so a bit wider fort accessibility. Most people like to eat, right?
Peoplenomics, remains the deep-water end of the pool. Big drivers like Long-Term Inflation, food system risk, market cycles, and our forward-modeling work will continue there. That’s the subscriber engine room. They get things like my books, serialized, and twice weekly 20+ visual ticklers in the ChartPack. (We do love our money…)
I’m not going anywhere — just shifting gears. (I go through this every so-often. But don’t worry. I’m ADHD enough it will be a “passing thing.” Just remember, Prime George is on Peoplenomics, Choice George is ShopTalk, and occasionally, Select columns on Urban. With occasional Utility grade reports when the stars are weak.)
Each of us gets only so many days in Life. With focus, we can get the occasional “near perfect” one in the books. Working toward the “perfect” waking life is the best prep for the next one. Even if you think you’re still 44.
Write when you get rich,
ShopTalk Sunday is here, visitor, a zillion old columns here. And BFD (black Friday deals) on Amazon are here. Go spend. It might help America and China both. Oh, and my AI research here with a book on topic here. Still debating how much to put on SSRN.
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