Markets are going through what we’d call in electronics, a kind of Class-B moment.

In electronics, Class-B amplifiers are often called “push-pull” configurations:

“In a push-pull Class B circuit, two complementary transistors (NPN and PNP in bipolar junction transistors or N-channel and P-channel in MOSFETs) are used, each conducting for only half of the input waveform cycle—one transistor handles the positive half, while the other handles the negative half. This design significantly reduces power dissipation when no signal is present, achieving efficiencies up to 78.5% under ideal conditions.”

Using our (highly refined) skills in extensible thinking, we can pivot the concept into Finance.

Some events will tend to Push the market (higher) while other events will Pull (lower).

When markets closed for the weekend, some of our key indicators were hinting that “change might be in the air.”  But “life changes over time” (oh boy, does it!) and the early Futures today were less than stellar.

BitDrop

If you didn’t notice the Crypto decline recently, Bitcoin fell to the vicinity of $80,000 over the weekend.

To a very long-term skeptic (like me) you can almost see a long-term Elliott 5-wave progression to the movements:

True Believers will doubtless argue that Elliot Wave structures can’t be applied to bubbles.  ChatGPT thinks otherwise:

“Yes, Tulipmania likely followed an Elliott Wave structure in its price movement. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, speculative bubbles often exhibit a five-wave impulse pattern in their ascent, followed by a sharp three-wave corrective decline. Here’s how Tulipmania might align with this framework:

Wave 1 (Initial Smart Money Buying) – Early interest in tulips as a status symbol and investment.
Wave 2 (First Correction) – Prices dip as early profit-takers exit.
Wave 3 (Mania Phase) – The speculative frenzy kicks in, and prices go parabolic as more people jump in.
Wave 4 (Temporary Decline/Consolidation) – Some traders take profits, but the public remains euphoric.
Wave 5 (Final Blow-off Top) – Prices peak in a climactic surge of irrational exuberance.

This is then followed by an ABC correction:

A-Wave: The initial price drop as fear sets in.
B-Wave: A dead-cat bounce as some traders attempt to buy the dip.
C-Wave: A final devastating crash, wiping out most speculative gains.
This pattern is seen in many historical bubbles, including the 1929 stock market crash, the dot-com bubble, and Bitcoin’s various boom-bust cycles. Tulipmania’s rapid rise and collapse mirror this wave behavior, making it a classic Elliott Wave-style mania.”

I’ve been studying financial bubbles since 1971 and one of the paradoxes of them is “the faster the communication of market information, the slower the bubble evolves.”  This was later partially confirmed in work out of X-PARC models in the 1990s.

Notwithstanding the details we can plug in other Bubbles (like the South Seas Bubble) and observe (with a side of AI):

• Both exhibit classic boom-and-bust cycles, resembling an Elliott Wave-style rise and collapse.
• The South Sea Bubble was much shorter-lived (about 2 years) compared to Bitcoin’s multi-year cycles.
• Bitcoin saw multiple rebounds, while the South Sea Bubble collapsed permanently.
  The logarithmic scale helps compare the different magnitudes of price movements.

If we follow the work of Cesare Marchetti (on S-curver growth stochastics) we can actually see an implied “second tech ubble” within the whole Crypto space is likely playing out now.  (If you don’t know of Marchetti’s work, a good introductory article is here).

In other words, in Early Bubble, BTC was a kind of “lone eagle”.  However, as challengers came along (ETH, XRP, etc) the second stochastic appeared.

Ahead is the 1929 Problem

On our Peoplenomics side, we like to track how our current (financialization blow-off) is playing out compared with 1929.  By looking at where the BTC stochastics are – and then mentally overlaying the 1929 and 2025 financial markets – it’s pretty hard to get to a “Happily Ever After” outcome.

As you can see, there was a brief interlude in 1929 (red arrow above) which is where my notion of being a “Two week Bull” came from.  The bad news?  Well, our Aggregate Index is looking a tad less than “stunning” today:

But we’ve been telling you about this stuff for years, and as long as you remember you can make money going up or down in markets, it’s really no “big deal” unless you’re on the wrong side of the trade. And that is precisely why everything we write is accompanied by “This is NOT Financial advice!”

Life advice?  Well, we still like having no debt, living in a double-wide mobile home in the woods, and having 3G out here. (Grub, Guns, and God. Beyond 4G, not much useful left in the dictionary, but ya’ll have fun with the self-cooking programs.)

There’s a fine line between statistical acumen, a prepper mindset, and paranoia.

A (Seriously Complicated) Liberal Trigger

First the story: ICE arrests Palestinian activist who helped lead Columbia University protests : NPR

Then the *(sounds liberal to us) reaction in a Comment:

“A “Palestinian activist” who has led protests was arrested on bogus charges and it has been openly admitted that this was in support of Trumps outlawing any “anti-Semitic” activities. Lets just be honest about it, Trump is an ass kissing whore for the Israelis and it is fully obvious.”

The reaction continued (I hope the reader checked his BP!).  But my answer was less knee-jerk liberal:

“”…in the NPR coverage, the keys were “Greer said she spoke by phone with one of the ICE agents during the arrest, who said they were acting on State Department orders to revoke Khalil’s student visa.

So, he is NOT an American (per se) (and thus entitled to Constitutional protections).

Second point in the story was that:

“Greer said she spoke by phone with one of the ICE agents during the arrest, who said they were acting on State Department orders to revoke Khalil’s student visa. Informed by the attorney that Khalil was in the United States as a permanent resident with a green card, the agent said they were revoking that instead, according to the lawyer.”

Now, can the State Dept. revoke a green card? (Yes)

Here are the main reasons a green card can be revoked:

1. Fraud or Misrepresentation: If it’s discovered that the green card was obtained through fraudulent means (e.g., fake marriage, falsified documents), it can be revoked.
2. Abandonment of Residency: If an LPR spends too much time outside the U.S. (typically more than 6 months without a reentry permit, or more than a year), authorities may determine they’ve abandoned their residency status.
3. Criminal Activity: Certain crimes, especially those classified as “aggravated felonies” or crimes of moral turpitude, can lead to deportation proceedings and green card revocation.
4. National Security Concerns: If an individual is deemed a threat to national security, their status can be revoked.
5. Administrative Errors: In rare cases, a green card may be revoked if it was issued in error (e.g., incorrect eligibility).

Now, if the President says he has a security concern about a (non-US Citizen) who is organizing protests that disrupt a publicly funded (in part) college or university than while it is not “the old way” of doing things, it’s Trump’s way. He is “messaging” to anti-American interests.

We also need to remember that Free Speech is just that – “speech.” As the Marxists of Oregon have learned (however slowly) free speech does not extend to disrupting the lives (and educations) of full Citizens who are going about their normal conduct of business. In Oregon, that’d be driving on a public city street (blocked by further than Speech actions) or at a University where classes were canceled. That’s more than “speech”.  Blocking my road ain’t protected speech. Period. Getting in my way (obstructing MY freedoms) isn’t Speech, either.

I happen to agree that Trump is too ‘pro Israel’ for my own tastes. He is very likely to deploy American military support for the upcoming Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear plants. To me, that’s a clear ‘Act of War” when it comes.  This should be specifically voted up or down by Congress, per the Constitution – and in advance.

On the other hand, Israel’s size is a whole history in and of itself: Its size today (compared with 1948) depends on who’s measuring.  It is….

• Larger, if you include the Golan Heights and the parts of the West Bank under Israeli control, as this totals more than the 1948 borders.
• Slightly larger, if you only count the internationally recognized 1948 borders plus the Golan Heights (since Sinai was returned).
• Smaller, if you strictly compare the 1948 borders to only the pre-1967 territory minus Gaza (but Gaza was never Israeli in 1948—it was Egyptian-controlled).

Yes, it’s a mess. Trump may be viewed too pro Israel, BUT when public activities are curtailed in any way, that action is well beyond speech and subject to other enforcement as allowed by statute.

The (Whole World) is coming to a critical junction. This plays into it. One reason why the Doomsday Clock is closer than ever to “nuclear midnight” is expansion of the “Nuclear Club.”  If Israel attacks Iran to keep IT out of the Club, then the U.S. could strike North Korea if they get too public, too close, as well.  But that would bring in Club Member China.  Boom!

So the radical organizer goes away, but Congress should in our view consider long and hard whether to support a pre-emptive strike on Iran. Because that leads to this headline:  North Korea fires ballistic missiles as U.S.-South Korea joint military drill kicks off – UPI.com. Case law, right?

Scrollers for Trollers

We have long held Congress is populated by persons ignorant of Federal law.  Here’s more proof: Crockett Sparks Debate by Claiming Illegal Border Crossings Are Not a Crime.  She’s from Texas????  Where’s my checkbook….can I make it out to “Anybody BUT”?

Liberal Coup continues in Canada as Justin Trudeau has resigned and Canada’s Liberal party has selected Mark Carney as his replacement. Jordan Peterson on this Marxist.…  Address your complaints to “Statehood Dept, 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, D.C….”

Seems like DOGE is doing the job the Government Accountability sham failed todo (again): DOGE Says Children Received $312M In Loans Meant For Small Businesses During COVID Pandemic..  And as for how Deep State Actors had the reins of power?  “State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce says “What we’ve discovered at USAID is troubling enough to where this is the kind of conversation that is perhaps going to have to be had by the American people and even perhaps Congress” When asked about the DOJ she says “I don’t know” 

Takes one to know one Dept-  Musk: “George Soros is a system hacker. He is a genius at arbitrage. He figured out you could leverage a small amount of money to create a non-profit then lobby politicians to send a ton of money to it, so you can take what might be a $10M donation and leverage that into a $1B NGO.”

Wait, what time is it?

At the Ranch: From Captain Gooding

My long-time friend, who we refer to as “Captain Gooding” (though his actual rank is much higher) blesses us with his occasional wisdom and perspective.  His outlook today is a dandy:

Unbuilding the colossus of fraud, waste, and abuse we live within is going to take a while.

It took decades to grow – arguably a full lifetime for Boomers – and undoing it is going to be more complicated than unraveling the Gordian knot. And it cannot simply be slashed apart. We will need that rope to get out of the pit of despair we find ourselves in. Although much of the more recent outright (albeit carefully concealed) theft and grift can be chased down one set of perpetrators at a time, in the end, it will take multiple RICO cases, and a whole lot of prison sentences to begin to get to the roots of the rot.

Treason charges and group hangings (rope is reusable and environmentally friendly; bullets cost a lot more) will almost certainly be required eventually. But then what?

There’s this stuff called dry rot in wood. It’s sadly all too common in older wooden boats. An external glance reveals nothing – the wood looks fine, especially under a few coats of paint. But take a sharp probe to it, like a scratch awl or ice pick, and the point sinks right in. The inside of the wood has turned into something like a cellulose sponge. It has no strength left, and under stress, fails.

Only one of two things can be done: rip it out and replace it (invariably costly and time consuming) or inject the rotten wood with a thin solution of epoxy hardener. Lots of mixing of resins and probing spongy wood with sharp needles on the ends of giant syringes, but if properly done, the hardened resin reinforces the spongy wood, turning it into a strong composite material.
We face national level decisions at institutional levels.

What parts of our governmental structures do we want to do wholesale “rip it out and replace it” jobs on, and which parts can be saved by injections of new strengthening materials? The first COA sometimes costs less, but it means that during the work, that function, that part of the vessel is inoperative. Often, a dry docking is required, and the vessel is unusable for extended time frames during repairs.

On the other hand, the use of a hardener like “Git Rot” usually allows the vessel to stay at anchor, or afloat besides the dock. But the money saved by not hauling out is usually eaten up in the cost of repair materials. And getting the stuff injected is fiddly work, invariably requiring contortionist skills while wearing a respirator, because the fumes are pretty noxious until the stuff has hardened fully. (Think fiberglass resin in close quarters…)

Some elements of governance are absolutely required, while others are in the “nice to have” category. We simply cannot haul out the ship of state and do full scale “rip and replace” work everywhere. The administration will need to identify where heavy injections of new blood (i.e.: new people) can save an institution. Air traffic control comes to mind immediately.

Some parts of the existing system will require immediate reinforcement, while a new system is being shaped in the shop. Once all the parts are fabricated, a rapid full rebuild can be done.

But all this will take time, talent (which may have to be taught or retaught), and invariably, trea$ure.

It’s a huge ask of a society that has become accustomed to almost instant answers, without demanding any hard work be done first. Gen Z has a lot of growing up to do, and will find it hard to do without their phones. And Millennials will need to come to grips with both their anger management and angst handling skills. (Sometimes, yes, it really is you who are to blame. Learn to deal with that.)

Reprogramming their Gen Z worker bees and “reports”will require a lot of both to be dealt with.
And, yeah, Gen X and Boomers both are going to have to do some belt tightening. And many, perhaps most, Boomers are not used to that. When laid off millennials are competing with Boomers for those Walmart, Lowes, and Home Depot vests, discriminating factors like who shows up to work on time (yeah, every day) and who doesn’t have their face in a phone constantly are going to become more serious hiring factors.

Gonna be interesting.

Near as I can tell, most of the younger folks these days expect to get sweaty only in hot yoga or some sort of athletic pursuit. The thought of doing potentially dangerous physical work in all weathers, oh, and starting at the crack of dawn, yeah, they are not so into that. Poor woodgies. Welcome to the real world. There’s so much to learn, Mr. Mister said.

All these are cultural and institutional generational realities that are going to make this campaign of national renewal and repair a long, slow slog. It’s only just begun.

I recommend joining a bowling league. It’s almost always comfortable there in side a bowling alley, cold weather or hot. And you can usually get a decent sandwich. Anybody a member of the Odd Fellows? Or the BPOE? We as a nation also need to rebuild our civic society, ripped asunder by the draconian, and evil, responses to COVID-19. Benevolent organizations like those really do help knit the fabric of society together.

Yep, we’re in an awful way, with a long way to go, and a short time to get there. (More rock and roll folk wisdom, there.) Remember, we built this city on rock and roll. Turn it up, and let’s get back to work.

Yes, I’m Taking Tuesday Off

Told you this was coming – I am going to “dial it back” on the free (UrbanSurvival) side.  Peoplenomics.com is still just $40 a year and it hasn’t changed price since 2001.  (Go ahead, name something else like that…)

I started working at age 14.  That was 1963. (25 cents an hour to shelve library books!).  After 62-years of full time (and beyond) I am cutting back to five days a week, not 7+.

If you’re not a subscriber to Peoplenomics, see here.

I will still come in to approve comments. Unlike big social media, we actually human review comments. But it’s nearly spring and much needs to be done.  We have many and much to do.

(ShopTalk Sunday is here if you missed it.)

Write when you get rich,

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