We are braced for Cyber Monday with a cheap 86-inch Q-type TV landing today. Amazon (here) and credit card burns being somewhat synonymous. We are between an inflationary “hard place” and trying our damnedest to “rock on…”

Morning Agenda

• My friend the Economic Fractalist has nailed it – so we’re both running nailing guns around this market now…
• Evidenced by a weekend short play set to buy lunch (maybe even dinner!).
• First of the month so what happens? Besides bills and the weather sites giving a useful month-long view for a change?  I change into “winter uniform.”
• Plenty of noise, but no fresh invasions overnight as we tear down the wire….

BTC Soup

We can’t help but begin by mentioning BTC is sinking faster than an Airbus with all engines out.  Sailing down past the $87,000 level early.  For readers paying attention to our Comments Section  (where good gold panning awaits!) The Economic Fractalist just nailed it Sunday:

“Over the next 5 trading days, DJT (Trump Media)should eclipse its all-time low. Hoover was elected President in 1928 with 444 electoral votes to Al Smith’s 81 and near the end of a 1807 36/90 year :: x/2.5x credit cycle. Trump was elected in 2024 near the end of an interpolated 13/33 year :: x/2.5x credit cycle. Hoover was highly intelligent, a very good businessman, an institutionalist, and an ethical fellow. Whoever won the 2024 election was going to be the recipient of a power law distribution major equity, crypto, gold, commodity market crash. The asset-debt macroeconomic system is elegant in its maximum valuation growth and in its peak to nadir decay valuation simplicity. On 29 Oct 2025 the global equity market reached its maximum intraday growth valuation for the 13/33 year cycle. On Thursday 27 Nov 2025 the equity market reached a point of self-organized criticality.”

Gary’s site also had a dandy article from this weekend briefly titled “Fine Tuning: Peak Equity Valuation 1929 versus 2025: The Elegantly Simple Self-Ordering Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly, Daily, and Hourly Time-based Quantum Fractal Growth and Decay of Composite Equities In The Asset-Debt Macroeconomic System” definitely a good read.  Also a nod to Gary’s musical tastes with the embedded Dire Straits video – well done. Or, at least over easy.

Too Busy Working to Get Rich?

Here’s a freebie from our Peoplenomics ChartPack this weekend that will put you in the game if Gary’s work requires more brain cells than are online yet:

Now hold on as Mr. Terrific gets Specific.  We know that BTC kissed the $75,000 level back on April 9th.  $75,004.68 says the high resolution.  And earlier today (before the suckerfish get in the pond) we rolled $86,487.52.

Besides bellybutton lint, we find ourselves pondering BTC/Market Offsets.  See back in April, our Aggregate Index didn’t hit its closing lower until a day later.  44,176.62  versus 43,763.90 day after. To us? Looks like BTC isn’t done and our Slaughter of the Elves II for Christmas (however much you’d like to forget 2018 holidays) might still rear its head.

We don’t plan to get rich trading this pig. Just a little hamburger sniping for the lunch money account.

More Turkey? Get Over It!

Before we roll the daily cast of clowns off the RSS and feeds, let’s pause for this public service announcement from the Health Dept. “Turkey is only good 3-4 days in the fridge.  If it’s not gone by bedtime tonight, makes a very high-end pet food.”

For the Practical Investor:  (who understand misery makes money):

Should you screw-up and hold leftovers too long?  Here’s a quick roundup of the usual “tummy-handler” suspects for those still battling Thanksgiving leftovers: Maalox products come out of Sanofi’s consumer health line, Pepto-Bismol is the long-running pink miracle from Procter & Gamble, and Walmart’s Equate house brand covers the bargain-bin versions of both. Between antacids, bismuth, and the generic knockoffs, there’s no shortage of chemical cavalry if the turkey fought back overnight.

Wal-Mart will, therefore (and of course) be our one stock to watch.  First because they dealt us the new Cyclops for the living room.  But also because we can get some insight into how pre-holiday sales were…  We now return to our scheduled remarks…

Vacation or Next War?  Worthy data in this article here: 11 U.S. warships and 15,000 troops now in Caribbean as Venezuela tensions escalate – CLG News.  I dunno – Caribbean Cruises for enlisted?

According to this report: US lawmakers demand answers over Hegseth Venezuela boat strike reports. For now, we see the US war on Venezuela as a “programmable option” in the event the Fed doesn’t lower rates.

Kabuki meets Excel.  While stories like Flurry of Fed dissents in coming meetings could pose market, political risks  | Reuters make the rounds, we’ll be looking at “full spectrum economics” for invasion timing.  (Translation from Ure-speak? Watch WTI oil prices.  Those West Texas Intermediate barrels (Permian juice) were running $59.24 earlier.  Not sure what a change will mean.  But if a flash-war takes Venezuelan output offline, then a pop? That would give the Admin an “inflation is driven by oil prices” talking point… (permutations have us looking at several Equate other OTCs ‘deal with it, besides the Pepto-clone.’

Saddened, here at the “pillbox” in the woods to read how Gunman kills four people, wounds 10 others in shooting at California child’s birthday party. But the lessons are clear: People kill people, guns require operators. And the least reliable of these may live in California. Where they forget Texas 101:  ‘An armed society is a polite society. ‘

Tea Leaves hint at a pre-Fed rally: US, Ukrainian officials call peace talks in Florida ‘productive’ and ‘successful.’ Which would be hard on Europe, good on us, and might move things higher to hedge the Fed no-action possibility which is our dart toss (if anyone was so stupid as to let us throw sharp pointy things).

Around the Ranch:  Winter Uniform Day

[Usefuls: ShopTalk Sunday is here if y’all missed it.  And a new post on our HiddenGuild AI site here where we talk about the all too human roots of AI hallucinations and gobbledygook]  How Weak Humans Attack Collaborative AI – Hidden Guild.]  Hint: Starts in the backroom.

Ever wonder why Elon Musk’s image includes a vintage leather bomber jacket?  Because, despite being (for now) the richest person on the planet, he’s also not a “conspicuous consumer.”  Minimalism at work, right?  Half a dozen shirts, a “dress suit” or two, bomber jacket and maybe a half-dozen T-shirts.

I’ve learned something from my son (G2) and Musk:  Best way to deal with ADHD is to remove the distractions.  One of which is Fashion because there have been so many “honey pot traps” set around the appearance and poseur fringes.

I don’t have the money, of course.  But when it comes to clothing, I have two more or less standard seasonal “uniforms.”  Works for almost all budget levels, too.

Summers over 95 percent of the time I am in a pair of khaki cotton (or blend) biz casual pants.  April to end of Nov. And a passable fishing shirt.  Yes, I could afford almost anything (short of stupid designer labels) but the pants and white shirt are absolute heat-beaters.  Being fishing shirts? Ultra fast drying for those sweating times in the heat, but virtually no solar heating effects. Four fishing shirts and four pairs of khakis and I’m good.  Until I work on the power center after which mysterious small holes will sometimes appear – lead acid storage is cheap, but a PowerWall or lithium-stack may come to reduce my “holey pantsness.”  *(We’ll run the numbers first, never fear…)

Today?  Winter Uniform Day!  Blue jeans, white T-shirt (no t-shirts in summer) and a long-sleeved Wrangler denim shirt. In rural East Texas – where we can still spell and even remember YSL and Brooks Bros. – practicality rules.

Which gets us to the morning reminder:  A really smart, self-directing person, looks at all aspects of their life and figures out (or engineers) the best-possible approach.  No bomber jacket. But for 1/10th the price, a Chinese imported water-resistant winter coat plucked on a lightning deal on a 100-degree day this summer. A $35 toasty.

Remember what I told you earlier?  Money Loves Misery?

Too many people put on those handcuffs for everything in their lives and never stop to inspect their personal foundations.  When you do, sometimes it’s concrete. Sometimes it’s termites.

Write when you get rich, and stop worrying about spending.  (You have a spouse for that!) Do the doing and the rest will follow… marriage proposals, IRS audits…ahem…

Ahead:  PMI and Construction spending at mid morning,.  If that really matters, consider a career change?

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