TL;DR:  We have a strong sense this could be a “Buy (the) Rumor, Sell (the) News” week.  To help you score, a checklist is provided. Mourning in Michigan but coincidence nags. And Working Weather is here for Fall. Daylight Time is a month off.

BR-SN

Means “Buy the Rumor, Sell the News” which – we think is how this week is kicking off. For example, the early Futures opened with the Dow set to pop a further 190-points to the upside.

What makes this such an interesting open to handicap is that gold and silver are roaring ahead. With Gold Futures up nearly $50 and the odds of $3,900 gold before the month is over (tomorrow) are very serious possibilities. Along with $50 silver.   Even Bitcoin, which has been trounced a bit lately, has come back above the $112,000 level. Is inflation soaring?  Not so fast.

I’ll grant you, it’s an easy time to be misled by headlines.  The reason?  When the purchasing power of the Dollar is reduced, it means it take “more of them” to buy a given item.  “More of them” means prices go up.  No, the intrinsic value of a 2,500 calorie meal – or the intrinsic value of gold – hasn’t changed.  Which leaves the lone prep in the line-up?  “Yeah, that’s him – Falling Dollar value!”

Michigan Murder – Page 17?

The reports are that a Mormon church in Michigan – shot up and a lot of people killed – was the work of a 40-year old Iraq War hero.  The brief follow-up is this: Exclusive | Iraq War veteran Thomas Sanford ID’d as gunman who attacked Grand Blanc LDS church, killing 4 and setting it ablaze on the NY Post website.

But there’s something – and several readers have expressed skepticism – A 40-YO White male NCO?  Stretches belief a bit.  There are two reasonable takes on this; most likely being PTSD might be involved.

BUT the more nefarious would be the timing.  Because often (too often for coincidence, we can’t be sure) we see a “major shock event” right around the top or a market high.

Now let me explain the “page 17 ” reference.  See, back in 1994 some real economic geniuses did a paper and one of the sections demonstrated in computer models, how the placement of major news – at the exact market top, before, or just after, could impact price.  MATLAB graph

In the study of market “waves” (which I’ve been studying for 30-odd years), placement of “major news” just ahead of a significant peak, can change the shape of a curve’s “shoulders.”  Of the four charts clustered on page 17 of the referenced paper, it seemed that “big news” could delay the ultimate market top a bit.  When the top arrived late in modeling, it also didn’t blow so high, either.

Will that figure into how this week rolls out?  Damn-fine question, that.  Let’s line up possible top and shoulder shaping events due this week.

This Week’s Event Checklist

Today is pretty quiet, but the pace begins to rock Tuesday.

Today:

___ Pending Home Sales – 10 AM

___ Dallas Fed numbers 10:30 AM

___ Multiple Fed “talking heads” All Day

Tuesday is our Biggy:

___ Donald Trump is scheduled to be on hand (which means speak – let’s not kid ourselves – at the DoD senior officers meeting at Quantico.  Will it be “warrior ethos” or layoffs or Wunderwaffe disclosures? Uncertainty is high.

___ Two part report here tomorrow – as Case-Shiller Housing drops. Any break in sales tempo will undercut the muddle-through narrative.  Update here about 8:15 AM Central

___ Lots of Treasury bill auctions to watch – Pre-Open

___ Consumer Confidence – 10 AM Eastern

___ Labor JOLTS Report – 10 AM Eastern

___ Treasury Buy-back openings 11 AM Eastern

___ Farm Prices at 3:00 PM Eastern (inflation hints?)

Wednesday’s Keys:

___ ADP Employment numbers

Thursday:

___ Challenger, Gray, Christmas Job Cuts report

___ Unemployment weekly filings – Lots of Treasury action.

___ Factory orders

Friday

___ Federal Employment numbers

___ PMI Global Composite – not huge but interesting.

Next week, we have Jerome Powell reporting in.

Wednesday Budget Disaster Looms

If we sail through Tuesday, it won’t mean we’re out of the woods.  Hold in mind the chance of a government shutdown over the Budget could show up tomorrow night (late). A shutdown will automatically begin at midnight Eastern on October 1 if Congress fails to pass either a continuing resolution or new appropriations. That means as the clock ticks over from September 30, non-essential federal operations could be forced to halt and employees would face furloughs. This timing is set by law: once funding authority expires, the government cannot legally obligate new spending.

Honestly, we haven’t run out how the Treasury buy-back and announcements Thursday will fare if this blows up – but there’s enough orange-hate in DC that we’re in anything can happen waters.  For now look for?

• Whether Congress passes a continuing resolution (CR) or appropriations bills before the deadline

• Votes in the Senate — especially cloture votes (60-vote threshold) — on funding legislation

• Statements or negotiations from leadership in both parties (House, Senate, White House)

• Memorandums from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to agencies about shutdown preparations (furloughs, layoffs)

• Media reporting on last-minute deal proposals or negotiations

• Agency shutdown notices or internal guidance to staff (telling them to prepare for nonessential work to halt)

The military and Social Security will continue to be funded. But as we sift down “into the ranks” it could become problematic.

Opportunistic or Probabilistic?

The fall home gamer’s version of American Financial Furballs will not play out just here.

America is still the Big Kahuna on the world stage and lots of people are gunning for that top spot.

China is likely to remain chill:  As for the odds of a surprise invasion of Taiwan this week, the probability is low. An amphibious operation of that scale requires months of visible preparation, with troop staging, logistics, and command readiness that would be difficult to hide. China’s preference remains gradual pressure through gray zone tactics, cyber operations, and diplomatic isolation of Taiwan. That said, if a sudden disruption of U.S. command and control were to occur, it could open a temporary window of increased risk, as Beijing might see an opportunity to test or probe without committing to a full invasion. The most realistic near-term scenarios are escalated military drills, missile launches, or a blockade rehearsal rather than a lightning strike invasion.

Russia will be watching, but may also chill:

Senior defense and foreign policy staffers still work, but political bandwidth shrinks and adversaries know it. Russia watches these moments closely. When Washington looks paralyzed, Moscow may test the edges—probing with stepped-up drone or missile strikes in Ukraine, cyber operations aimed at European targets, or noisy exercises along NATO borders to gauge alliance nerves. These aren’t all-out escalations, but calibrated moves meant to see if resolve wavers while attention is elsewhere.

The odds of Russia trying something dramatic like opening a new front or directly challenging NATO this week remain low. That kind of step risks spiraling out of control, and Moscow is already heavily invested in its Ukraine campaign. What’s more likely is opportunistic pressure—amplified propaganda, saber-rattling near the Baltics, or supply-line disruptions to test European cohesion. If U.S. political theater dominates headlines, Russia will exploit the optics to suggest America is too divided to lead. The week ahead is therefore less about invasion risk and more about psychological maneuvering, with Moscow using the shutdown narrative as cover to push narratives of Western weakness.

All that aside, what about Israel-Iran this week?  Or, does that come later?

Just yesterday, Iran executed a man accused of spying for Israel — a signal both of internal resolve and external messaging. That, coupled with renewed sanctions and Iran’s moves to rebuild missile infrastructure damaged earlier, raises the baseline pressure.

That said, the structural friction is still high: Israel will likely continue deterrent strikes, covert ops, drone/sabotage tactics, and missile probing rather than full scale invasion into Iran. The risk of miscalculation is real, especially if something external distracts Israel or forces a reactive posture. In short: escalation is possible, but the path this week points toward continued shadow warfare, not a full warbreak.

Still – we are on a high level of alert around here.  Because even if the odds of “nothing big” are probably 95 percent, we don’t wish to experience the “5 percent dead” outcome.

Plus we have comet tailings in the next week:

We begin intersecting the debris field of Comet SWAN around October 4 to 6. Astronomers expect the passage to be relatively mild, since this comet is not known for leaving a dense trail. If activity is visible, it would most likely appear as a faint uptick in meteor activity rather than a full storm.

The key factor is how much material the comet shed in earlier passes and how tightly that material stayed bunched along its orbit. In this case, projections suggest a light crossing. Observers might catch a few stray meteors, but the event is more about timing and possibility than a guaranteed sky show.

Sure, again, very low odds.  Even though much lower risk than Russian Roulette with a five-chamber “wheel gun” it’s a good mental exercise (for, oh, a million dollars tax-free cash) to ask “How many chambers would it take to get me to pick it up and pull?”

Any answer below 100,000 means you need to take a statistics class!

If you don’t have time to snag an advanced degree before, oh, lunch, say – try the ShopTalk Sunday prepping notes here.

How Could It Get Riskier?

You have questions, we have answers.  The first one is easy:  Lots of ways.

The fight to save New York (from radical socialism) is lost: New York Mayor Eric Adams abandons re-election campaign

Keep an eye open for “cause martyrs” in Oregon this week: Trump authorizes ‘full force’ troop deployment in Portland, Oregon. Martyrs are a proven crowd attractant.

Did someone yell “the Turncoasts are coming!”?? WATCH: Notorious RINO Announces She Might Finally Leave The GOP – Hey! maybe there’s a sell high and buy-in low thing in politics, you think?

No budget movement sighted, yet:  US Democrats, Trump set to face off in budget battle that could trigger gov’t shutdowns.

Sure – since when did corporations need accountability, anyway? US SEC Chair Atkins vows to fast-track scrapping quarterly corporate reports, FT says. Are you kidding?  Foxes hiring henhouse watchers?

Yes, I am “grinder biased.”  I don’t think it’s a BUSINESS sitting on your ass all day playing video games.  Thing is, are my “actual work genes” starting to play out IRL? EA Buyout Talk Highlights Gaming Struggles as Growth Slows.

And how’s this: Another “go woke, go broke” in the works? Retailer Closing 21 Stores, Loses $80 Million After Replacing Shark Survivor Model With Man Pretending to Be Woman.

Around the Ranch: Working Weather

Got up with sniffles to start the week.  Did the 2-hour “speed mow” of the front yard Sunday – a couple of acres – and allergies always follow.

“You didn’t wear a mask, again…”  Wife Elaine pointed out.  But I’m a man of Principles, understand.

“I’m not Antifa and it ain’t Halloween until end of next month.” I snapped.

“Grouch – take some drugs.”

“Don’t mind if I do…”

Work ought to be near-normal in the Southeast this week:

How South Florida can have that much  sketchy weather nearby and still not have the waders on the life preservers at the ready amazes up.

Days like this, the National Weather Service ad slogan gets rewritten.  “Turn around, don’t drown…” Becomes “Turn around, go back to bed.”

Write when I get up,

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