TL;DR:  The early futures were saying a strong rally at the open today, But we think a reversal mid-week.  Around the ranch? Speed demon coding and a Writer’s group?

Markets Suspend Gravity

A lot of people were surprised by the market sag Friday. But not us.  We told our Peoplenomics subscribers over the weekend to look at Asia and Europe long before the open.  They’ll be your canaries in advance.

Well, sure enough, huh?  There’s what you could label a “Half-a-percent rally” on in Europe early.  But Asia?  Tells a bigger story.

They will drag down our Global Index – and that begins to look like a rollover.  As a consequence, we begin to eye those “soft rules of Elliott” for clues about this week’s Future.

As you’ll remember from your own research (ahem) the second leg of an Elliott wave is oftentimes between 1.6 and 1.85 times the initial move.  So we can pencil what the end of the week (or this time next Monday) might look like.

From last week’s high, 58,464.95, the Aggregate closed Friday at 56,614.42. Back in 2016 I got lazy.  Decided I didn’t want to put numbers into a calculator for a living. So I built a simple spreadsheet to “generalize the possibilities” ahead. 

Which Means What?

News reporters, in the main, don’t go off into “Carnac Land” trying to game the future.  But when you become a news director – and people want time off and you’re “news-nose” smells something coming, you develop a good grappling of the short-term.

As a result, when we look at the market rally possibilities and combine that with the next New Moon being a short-term high candidate (from my consigliere’s work) we can then line up a POSSIBLE market calendar this way.

Today (and tomorrow maybe) a rally because the Aggregate needs to Lazarus some 926 points (or a thousand, depending on how the Fibonacci fans roll).

Walk with me through this:

• The next new moon is on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, at 8:25 a.m. EDT.
• Dow and S&P futures are up almost 50 percent from Friday’s washout – increasing our fears this will be a short rally.
• That MIGHT set up a decline later in the week. down maybe 3000 Aggregate points.
• Then a BIG rally next Monday and Tuesday?  Which would be really keen but it will be complicated.

See, a significant top may be in. Friday may have been a 1 down, today a 2 up, then a three down – may or may not be time enough for a wave 4 small rally and a 5 down to finish. But then something around a week from tomorrow as a high.

Here’s Where Future Gets Fugly

Remember that waves and cycles in financial markets “nest.”  Russian dolls kind of thing.  Let’s say we get a little “hard down” this week (in waves) and then a Tuesday rally next week (to hit a minor high on New Moon).

Well, that COULD turn the whole 1-2-3 (and optionally 4-5) downturn from last week into a larger 1 down.  Which is where we return the BrainAmp and say “OK, let’s build the bigger down by taking the Wave 5 low and pretending that’s just the Larger Wave 1 down.  (Barf bag ready?)

Right about here, you begin thinking :”Well, this is bad, sure, but I can survive.”  And maybe that’s so.

BUT we are only presupposed two nested wave functions.  Wanna see what happens with three?

That’s the case which ends the year with the Aggregate around 17,346.81 and the overall decline of our multiple-markets index down about 70 percent top to bottom.

At which point, the Depression II will be apparent – the U.S. scrambling to figure out how to build capacity to be ready for WW III with China (down the road a bit) and with the inflationary effects of the BRICS and Gold replacing the buck? What could go wrong?

Well, shutdown, or nay, be looking at the Treasury buybacks and auctions because when a currency rolls over, whole nations get flattened.

Now back to a few other items – besides 100 percent Trump tariffs on all Chinesium because THEY are screwing us out of rare earth metals.  But those new consumer goodies while there is still the parts to make ’em, though.

Oh, and if we get the “Slaughter of the Elves II” that I wrote up recently on Peoplenomics?  Pay it no mind – ravings of a crazy man in the woods.

Flush with News

(In keeping with our BM motif?  ISYN, lol. Butt, we are flush with developments…)

Once again, the Nobel committee gets it wrong, leaving me off this year’s honorees in Economics: 3 share Nobel Prize in Economics for work on technology, growth and creative destruction.

That “Bad Orange Man” just ended a war – go ahead – ask him: Trump declares Gaza war over as hostages and prisoners return home . Could the market be putting on a “show rally” to (nominally) support peace and we will have defense industry woes seep in later this week?

OR are there worse wars to come? Russia’s Medvedev says supplying US Tomahawks to Ukraine could end badly for all, especially Trump.

Plus there’s brinkmanship over rare earths… As the trade war resumes, China may be keeping one eye on Trump and one on the Supreme Court – Atlantic Council

Remember when Elaine and I were out in Burbank in 2004-2005 for that broadcasting college turn-around?  Told you then “Silver at 6.92-7.05 looked pretty good to us?  Silver Roars Higher as Short Squeeze Rocks the London Market  And trading in the low $52 range?

Around the Ranch: The Write Idea

Running a site like UrbanSurvival — grounded in nonfiction, analysis, and the occasional economic whack upside the head — has long had me wondering about the great literary divide: what do people really spend their money on?

Is it the escape hatch of fiction, with its tidy plots and fast payoffs — or the heavier lift of nonfiction, where you’ve got to chew your way through facts, data, and hard-earned lessons?

The numbers say nonfiction wins by revenue — business books, biographies, and self-help titles piling up the big dollars — while fiction still captures hearts and eyeballs. But I can’t help asking: in a culture wired for distraction, is nonfiction the last refuge for people who still want to think… or just the side alley where a few of us still hang out, trying to connect dots the crowd doesn’t see?

That’s the question I keep turning over: are readers buying truth — or comfort?

Here’s an Idea

I think it’s a lot more complicated than fiction vs. non.  Maybe it’s about people seeking other rational souls?
Sometimes wisdom is in non-fiction, but I look at guys like Richard Bach and Twain as proving that fiction is also feeding an important need of the genpop.

Maybe what’s missing is good storytelling?

A council of elders or a new writer’ forum?

Writer’s Subforum?

Let’s put some fencing around the idea.

The plan is to create a new page on the site menu titled “Novel Writings.” Each contributing author would have a sub-page where they write and share their adventures. For example, you might have a page and collection of stories called 3 Piece. Another Urban reader — say, A.G. Kimbrough — could tell his tales as Dirk Bell or Isaac Pitt (yes, a little Clive Cussler nod for the literate crowd).

There would be no fixed schedule. Each author would be set up with free posting access, and additional reader-writers could be invited based on how the tribe responds to their stories, style, and substance — especially what lessons or insights they offer.

Eventually, the project might go partially pay-walled, but the spirit is more community storytelling than commerce.

Why It Matters

When I analyzed social media years ago — and as honorary Texas chair of the Andrew Odlyzko fan club — I saw he was right about SME (short message exchange) being the future of telecom. But SME isn’t the future of thinking.

AI, meanwhile, makes a terrific writing tool. It’s a mind amplifier, and while folks may be tired of hearing me jump between domains, there’s a real global need for storytelling with purpose — tales that teach and reflect, not just entertain.

So: no deadlines, no pressure. Just writers who feel like pouring a dram and telling a story to the younger set (which here means anyone under sixty) — tales that might help them navigate life’s bumps before the final exit.

The Tribe and Tone

Besides you, Kimbrough, and a few others, I’m sure Andy would be voted in by popular demand. His rowdy adventures and prime-time women are the stuff of old barbershop lore, yet there’s something more — a sense of alignment with the Universe that lets bits of the future slip through, whether he realizes it or not.

And so do you. Boat shopping doesn’t go unnoticed around here. When the tribe sees you rattling the doorknobs, they know something’s up.

G.A. Stewart would always be welcome, too. But with his military workload and site to maintain, he’s probably too busy — though his “fiction” would be required reading for those of us scanning the tea leaves.

What Comes Next

Maybe we start simple: a 3,000-word limit per story — though even that might be too confining. A Part 1 / Part 2 format might fit better.

Think of it as a literary halfway house focused on the future — a meeting ground between narcissistic Facebook oversharers and over-bookish academic types. A place for long-thinking, short-speaking grown-ups.

We’ll know soon enough whether the idea has legs.

I’m putting it out there for comments.  Does it sound…write?

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New post up on HiddenGuild (my AI site). AI vs. The “Kill a Daisy” Lie BS – Hidden Guild

Write when you get rich,

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