TL;DR:  Markets wobble into Halloween as demographics, politics, and policy churn in the background — witches aren’t the scariest thing this weekend, central bankers and bureaucrats are. Beneath the plastic masks and candy lies an ancient reminder: we’re crossing a seasonal and social threshold, and you’d better keep your wits — and your portfolio — warm.

Who Needs Witches?

We have bankers, credit card companies, and accountants.  Ready to be scared tonight, anyway?  Beyond that?

What could be scarier about Halloween?  More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy – WSJ

Then there’s the World Series: the Toronto Blue Jays have a strong chance to take the series tonight, as they lead the World Series 3-2 and are playing Game 6 at home in Toronto. The Blue Jays have momentum from their wins in Games 4 and 5 and have home-field advantage, which gives them a statistically favorable position to clinch their first championship since 1993.

Which has what to do with bankers?  Well, IF Toronto wins tonight, we figure not only will markets tumble Monday on the American League win, but that it’s also a Foreign Team, to boot.  And that – in financial numerology – could be worse than any witches you’ve ever seen.

Has Decline Already Started?

Maybe so.  Our Aggregate Index tumbled Thursday and the NASDAQ fells as well.  As you would expect, there’s a “morning after” bounce in the wings, but don’t hold your breath.

Our Visual Market Signal suggests that we could be on the cusp of a hard week or two of downside.  Bitcoin is $109k and change but the “vibe” of the preopen is “bounce”  not solid. Europe was solidly down but the eye opening was Japan – ripping up 52,000 on the Nikkei and looking like this weeks Blow-Off Poster child.

Toss in an eye of newt and call us mid-morning Monday.

T-Bash Friday

Here we go again:  the liberals have to find something to bitch about Trump – maybe to hide their refusal to sign a “clean” continuation bill?  Whatever.  But do have a read of Trump administration sets lowest-ever cap on refugee admissions to U.S. : NPR,

One could make the argument that this part reads like a racial innuendo. “The administration has largely paused the U.S. refugee resettlement program so far this year, with the exception of a streamlined process of resettlement for white South Africans. Several hundred from the group have been resettled across the U.S. since March.”

Two points.  Media that capitalize Black ought to apply their much-spewed “equality” and capitalize White as a racial identifier, too.  See, that’s how genuine equality works.  (Not that they’d notice…but the word “equal” is in there.)

Second, while we’re at it, let me toss out some research supporting the notion that Congress has been running a long-term national racial profile change agenda without not so much as a vote.  Yet here’s how it lays out in the long-term data:

Civil War vs. Today: Who We Were and Who We Are

At the end of the Civil War, America was overwhelmingly homogeneous in demographic structure: roughly 87 percent White and about 13 percent Black, with Native and other populations making up less than one percent and often under-counted. That was a nation emerging from slavery, rural, insulated from global migration flows, and demographically static by modern standards. Race classifications were crude, immigration from outside Europe was minimal, and the census itself drew sharp, simple lines.

Today the demographic landscape is radically different. The United States is about 58 percent White non-Hispanic, 12 percent Black non-Hispanic, roughly 19 percent Hispanic of any race, nearly 6 percent Asian non-Hispanic, about 5 percent identifying as multiracial, and around 1 percent American Indian, Alaska Native, Pacific Islander, and other groups. In less than two centuries the nation shifted from a near-monoculture to one of the most diverse societies on Earth. The conversation has changed, the composition has changed, and the speed of demographic motion itself has become a defining characteristic of modern America.

I’m not saying it’s good – or bad – but we’re about 10-minutes from everyone in America being a minority so can we get back to total equality now, please?  And park the “special” and drop the innuendo and division mongering?

Meantime, handfuls of protesters are upset (playing a lame witch card here) because ICE is planning to do it’s job. Noem rejects Pritzker request to pause ICE operations for Halloween.  Again, a democrat pushing for a tolerance policy and failing to stand up for equality in enforcement of laws.  Why are we not, er…you know…

Slop Shots

(Hand me the cue, 9 in the corner…)

Starting to get legs: Mike Lee on X: “Why haven’t either The Washington Post *or* The NY Times reported on Arctic Frost—the biggest American political scandal since Watergate? Not up on it? Here’s the read-in:

Arctic Frost was the codename for a post-2020 election federal investigation that later expanded under special counsel authority. It began as a probe into efforts to overturn the election and the events surrounding January 6, but it broadened into a sweeping intelligence and financial dragnet that touched dozens of Republican-aligned groups, activists, and even sitting members of Congress. Investigators reportedly pulled toll-records metadata — who called whom, and when — on several GOP senators and at least one House member, along with issuing subpoenas for bank and organizational records tied to nearly a hundred right-leaning entities. Critics argue this crossed from legitimate law-enforcement into political surveillance, raising stark comparisons to Watergate with the federal government turning its investigative tools toward one political faction.

The scandal ignited because members of Congress are supposed to have heightened constitutional protections, and sweeping surveillance of one party’s elected officials and affiliates, without clear justification, is seen as a dangerous precedent. Supporters of the investigation frame it as a necessary step in examining threats to democratic processes, while opponents call it weaponization of federal power and a test of whether intelligence and justice agencies can be trusted to stay neutral. As internal oversight reviews uncovered procedural lapses and questionable approvals, Arctic Frost became a flashpoint in the debate over whether national-security tools are being misused domestically — and whether the line between law enforcement and political targeting still holds in modern America.

Democrat Dopes 2:  Liberal Washington Post Blames Democrats for Government Shutdown, Calls on Them to End It – Enraging Their Left Wing Readers | The Gateway Pundit

High Cost of environmental Extremism?  Greenpeace Fined Hundreds of Millions for Pipeline Eco-Terrorism

Batting Cleanup:  Hurricane Melissa: Death toll rises as aid struggles to reach parts of Jamaica.

And for the paranoid: Your Phone Is Watching You Right Now — Here’s How to Prove It. Yes, they really are out to get you – and everything you have…

ATR: Happy Cultural Expropriation Day

(Pappy used to call this American Dentistry Day…)

Modern Halloween arrives wrapped in neon kitsch, sticky fingers, and retail urgency, but beneath the plastic decorations and candy wrappers lies the remnant of an older, earth-rooted observance. Europe’s agrarian ancestors marked this season as a threshold between light and dark, life and death, harvest and hunger. Their ritual wasn’t spooky escapism — it was seasonal reality, spiritual technology, and communal coherence. What once honored cycles of nature and ancestry has been hollowed into a commercial festival of sugar, props, and novelty, a bright distraction in place of a night meant for reverence and reckoning.

From Fire and Spirit to Fog Machines and Selfies

Samhain’s bonfires once blessed households, herds, and fields, and masks blurred identities to confound wandering spirits. It was humility before mystery and a reminder that winter demanded courage and preparation. Today the fire is replaced by yard inflatables, the sacred mask by a disposable costume, and the liminal night by selfies under LED porch lights. Children once carried songs and blessings door-to-door; now they shuffle in branded costumes for wrapped candy, while adults trade genuine ritual for themed parties and curated frights. The holiday that once dissolved ego into the unknown now amplifies it under spotlights and screens.

Reclaiming Halloween isn’t about rejecting costumes or fun — it’s about restoring depth beneath the spectacle. Light a real candle. Speak an ancestor’s name. Step outside and feel the year turning. Upper 30’s here this morning. These small gestures reconnect the modern mind to the ancient truth: this season once taught our forebears how to live with death, darkness, and change without surrendering to fear. Halloween at its root was a wisdom tradition, a communal reminder of our brief walk among the living and the unseen. If we choose to look beyond the plastic masks, we may yet see the older faces watching, and remember why humans once gathered around fire instead of outlets.

For us?  An important seasonal transition.  The cold wines of summer give way to the HBRs (hot buttered rums) and HSW’s (hot spiced wines).

If you see the world shifting, you’re not crazy — you’re just early. Avoid Tehran tonight – hit Peoplenomics tomorrow and ShopTalk Sunday – it will all work out.

Write when the sugar kick passes,

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