Starting Point: A simple long wave econ perspective on Tariffs.

Can we please put the blame where it belongs?

The problem is foundationally because of tech.

• Prior to 1970, foreign made goods were of random quality. Long supply chain.
• The Revolution in Telecom allowed US manager to outsource globally.
• As the telecom evolution grew – and the internet came along – U.S. corporations judged they could make more money for shareholders by “Off-Shoring” production.

It was a devastating development:

• Net manufacturing job losses attributed to import competition: around 3.5 million workers displaced from 1991 to 2019—not all offset by export-related job creation
• From 1999 to 2011, competition with Chinese imports has been estimated to account for 1–2.4 million U.S. job losses, depending on methodology
• A broader estimate from 1998–2021 indicates over 5 million manufacturing jobs lost due to trade deficits with China, Mexico, the EU and others

In round numbers, 3 to 5 million U.S. manufacturing jobs were lost over approximately the last two decades, due at least in part to trade-related displacement.

Economic Ripples and Trade-offs

Long Wave Economics isn’t about movement toward a single, grand, stable solution.  It’s an infamous line-up of sequential cons.

• The Depression of the 1840’s was a “limits to free real estate” problem.
• The 1890’s were an urbanization and mass production problem.
• The 1930’s was a consumer saturation and consumption limits problem.

Now, we are coming to the end of the latest of the serial cons as export of manufacturing to foreign countries has left America vulnerable to foreign supply chain control.

This week’s “New Sheriff” in town is Tariffs.

But don’t expect your personal standard of living to change much.  New cons are increasingly bounded by lifestyle and political constraints.  Screw people too badly and they will “shake the system” so being an Elite Power Broker ain’t as easy as it seems.

What Drove Jobs Off

See, underlying Free Trade is this hidden dynamic: As jobs went overseas, price inflation was moderated over time by “least-cost” manufacturing wages elsewhere.  For a while, goods were cheap. That’s why we loaded up the shop out here on the farm – own the means of production – right?

Now, however, foreign labor costs are rising — and the U.S. balance sheet has gone completely out of whack, not from surplus, but chronic deficits.  (Turn your head and cough for me, would you?)

Here’s the Big Lie in the current tariff discussion:  Foreign Countries have widely adopted VAT (value-added or ad valorem) taxation.  In effect, sales taxes on imported goods.  The U.S. – having been mostly neutered clear-thinking skills – is hard selling “Tariffs are not taxes.”

Bullshit.

You’re the Patsy

Tariff or Tax,,,you’re going to pick up the tab.  Just a matter of when.

Someone eventually pays.  And that will ALWAYS be you.

In our judgment, the Federal Reserve decision to hold rates steady – and hint (ever so vaguely) that September doesn’t have a lock on a drop, either, was exactly the right move.

Like many other “developers” I’ve known in almost 60-years of reporting, Trump is putting the cart before the horse.

We need the job creation onshored and a strategic re-think of why we work so hard to “get ahead.” A lot of us, who grew up in the 1950’s remembering a time of long summer vacations with a family, what it was like to have a good middle class life on a single income.  And – crazy as it is – even 12 percent interest caps on credit cards.

Yeah…the late Joe Davis of the Washington State Labor Council was a champion of that. Late 1960’s.

A Curious Biden Sidebar:

Davis and the Labor Council got a taste of “taxes driving jobs” first hand.  When I got my first credit card, Seattle First National Bank processed cards in Spokane, WA.  Within a couple of years, states like (Joe Biden’s) Delaware, along with Nebraska and South Dakota were making fortunes off credit card operations:

That’s the under-reported trail that lead to?  By the early 2000s, the credit card industry was Delaware’s largest private employer.

And that became Biden’s “yellow brick road.”  Senator Biden was deep in the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act: Biden supported the bill, which made it harder for consumers to erase credit card debt in bankruptcy

On top of that, Biden did not champion national usury caps. Which we correlated to big financial support from MBNA.  Which should ring a bell: Biden’s son, Hunter Biden, was briefly employed by MBNA as a consultant in the 1990s, prompting scrutiny over influence.  We long-ago concluded Biden was a “banker’s president” and we’ve seen no reason to change that assessment.

Where Did Unions Go?

Scuttled. Unions have been politicized (and mostly broken up) and those that remain seem mainly dedicated to specialized leftist, minority, and genderized ideals.  The central interests of working people are largely forgotten in return for (equivalents to) political payoffs that don’t hit the working class.

That’s how the Banksters got out from under rate caps, that’s how “free-traders” came in, and even now the absolute truth of economics (Only People Pay taxes) is a hidden reality smeared by false narratives.

Still, it’s a form of “job creation” as we figure it:  After all, Everything is a Business Model.

Even writing about crookery and crockery.

So with that, let’s lift the lid on the slowly simmering frogs and see if any are ready to leap…yet.

Did the Fed Get It Wrong?

The monthly Job Cuts report is out:

“U.S.-based employers announced 93,816 job cuts in May, down 12% from 105,441 cuts in April, and up 47% from 63,816 announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“Tariffs, funding cuts, consumer spending, and overall economic pessimism are putting intense pressure on companies’ workforces. Companies are spending less, slowing hiring, and sending layoff notices,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.”

We can argue about this all day along. But the fact is, we are managing the economy all wrong from an a pure economics issue.  You think about parallels to the operation of MPPT solar controls and I’ll give you the answer on the Peoplenomics side next week.

More Measures

A Great Lesson in Government Economic Misdirection here, if you have the stomach for it:  Employment costs are just out from Labor. the “sold” narrative:

Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, for the 3-monthperiod ending in June 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today

But now comes the Truth in Two Charts:

So yes – taxes are still going up. And in the private sector, we’re still going now.  The Plan, right?

That really matters is what Employment costs are in China, India, Europe, Iran…see?  Data holes big enough to drive a Depression through!

Now let’s segue into new unemployment filings:

Which smacked which states hardest?

Market futures were up strongly – the Bankers got their way with the Fed, so sure….  And don’t you forget it!

The Droller Scroller

Too early for vodka? Running low on Maalox?  Here…let us help.

Trade talk for idiots, II: Tariff deal with US to help remove trade uncertainties: South Korean president. Which is why we didn’t vote for him?

WW 3 is late August.  In the pre-show warm-up act: Trump warns Putin’s right-hand man Medvedev: ‘You’re entering very dangerous territory’ By saying the US was driving toward conflict?  We sense a confused Developer here:  Does he want NATO to pay us, or does he want NATO to stomp Russia?  Not sure what the logic chain is here.

Why do we see China maneuvering to grab Tibet (and name the Dalai Lama successor) in this? China Advances $167 Billion Tibetan Mega-Dam Because whoever controls the water controls the reincarnation rights, apparently.  Oh, no, jobs of would-be protesters….got it.

Election Fraud busts in the wings?  BERNEGGER: Possibly 10,000 Arrests Coming For Sovereign Fraud.  Let me know when/if it goes real.  This part or related? Trump-Hating Russia Hoax Investigator Fired As Top NSA Lawyer.  Politics and glaciers – which moves faster now?

New low in behavior?  NYC’s left of left mayoral wannabe hijacks a memorial service to stump for city office: Benny Johnson on X: “?BREAKING: Communist Zohran Mamdani calls for an immediate nationwide ban on assault rifles: “I echo the call from Governor Hochul for a nationwide ban on assault rifles.” At a fallen officer’s memorial. When the Left turns funerals into stump speeches, you know decorum’s left the country.

And is this a new milestone in partner swapping? Foo Fighters and Nine Inch Nails Swap Drummers, Switching Josh Freese for Ilan Rubin.  I’ve been watching rock and roll for 60+ and this seems like a Keith Richards swapping with John Lennon kind of thing – not your average Wednesday.

Around the Ranch: Dream Work Video

You may remember, I wrote one of the world’s least popular books on the mechanics of dreaming in my 2018 book Psychocartography: Mapping the Human Dream.

But I was really impressed last night to see a very good YouTube video from Arcane Vault that very much aligns with my book.  You may find it useful.

It doesn’t get into the journaling, nor does it get into working out the cartography of your different dream worlds, but it’s really very good.

Write when you get rich,

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